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Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4032622)
Good news (for pro USA people)... Iran is now capping oil wells, due to lack of additional storage capacity to handle continued production.
Once capped it's not easy to restart production, can't just flip a switch back on (google if you want all the petro engineering technical details). Worse (for them), the longer they stay capped, the lower the ultimate production value becomes once restarted. So they are wasting more and more of their economic future every day the blockade continues. That tends to imply that they should want a deal. Whether they comply with the terms of the deal is another story entirely (they probably will for the duration of Trump, especially since he can easily restart the blockade in mid Nov if needed). Comeon man...that's just Trump manipulating the markets so he and his family can profit off his manipulation of the narrative. Doncha know!;) |
The real ramification of Iran getting nukes that we'd have to contend with on a daily basis is less that some wingnut might lob one at TLV, or SEA or BOS (although that's more possible than with other nuclear states). The reality is that, somewhat like DPRK, they'd use the nukes as a shield to enable lots of really bad behavior and malign influence in the region. It would all be very destabilizing to the ME, and other regional actors would acquire their own nuclear weapons (some have already made all of the arrangements, it would happen in days, not years). That would be fun.
As Hammer said: U Can't Touch This! |
Originally Posted by jerryleber
(Post 4032634)
The Saudi East-West pipeline system (Petroline) can transport up to 7m bpd, though in early 2026, about 2m bpd was being used, leaving some spare capacity, but the Red Sea port of Yanbu can only handle about 5m bpd. So that is an additional 3m bpd and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) is now pumping near its max of 1.8m bpd up from its normal 1.0m bpd. So that would mean an additional 3.8m bpd or about 20% of what typically goes through the Strait of Hormuz. And if the Yanbu crude heads south it has to go by Yemen and the Houthi’s and Iran has been targeting the ADCOP Fujairah terminal.
The info is available to oil traders trying to call the future price of oil. How many thousands are you willing to invest on your Google search, Trump is full of problems and errors, but that doesn’t make oil traders worse at their job. |
Originally Posted by Ice Bear
(Post 4032623)
How often does New Zealand or Iceland get a terrorist attack? Meanwhile, we're hitting Iranian elementary schools while POTUS repeatedly lies about it, claiming Iran hit their own school with a Tomahawk they don't have. You know one of the easiest things we could do to bolster aviation security?
Stop breeding entirely new generations of terrorists by killing hundreds of their children. https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/...17-image03.jpg . |
Meanwhile, back in the Red Sea, even the cheese eating surrender monkeys know that if SOMEONE doesn’t stand up for the principle of free navigation in international waters, most of world commerce is screwed…
MAY 6, 2026 4:26 PM CET BY VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONTPARIS — France's flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, passed through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea on Wednesday, heading closer to the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Paris is looking to accelerate a Franco-British initiative launched in April, which gathered 51 countries in an effort to reopen navigation through the strategic chokepoint. About 20 percent of the world’s crude passes the strait each day; maritime traffic has been mostly halted since the U.S. and Israel launched a war on Iran on Feb. 28. "To expedite the implementation of this initiative as soon as circumstances allow it, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its escort ships will transit the Suez Canal ... en route to the southern Red Sea," the French defense ministry said in a statement. It said the movement will also allow for an assessment of the situation in the region and "help reassure maritime trade stakeholders." French President Emmanuel Macron announced in March that he intended to set up a "purely defensive mission" including both European and non-European countries to escort commercial shipping through the strait. European countries have been very reluctant to get involved in the war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump, but the continent faces a growing commercial and energy emergency because of the blockade. Earlier this week, Trump pledged the U.S. would escort vessels out of Hormuz under operation Project Freedom. On Tuesday night, however, he said the U.S. would pause support for ships transiting "for a short time," citing "great progress" in negotiations with Iran. A French presidency official, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity, said of the deployment: "Through this adjustment to our posture, we want to collectively send the message that not only are we ready to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but that we are also capable of doing so." France underlined that its primary goal is to restore normal shipping. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4032642)
The info is available to oil traders trying to call the future price of oil.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4032696)
Meanwhile, back in the Red Sea, even the cheese eating surrender monkeys know that if SOMEONE doesn’t stand up for the principle of free navigation in international waters, most of world commerce is screwed…
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Originally Posted by jerryleber
(Post 4032718)
I talk to one every couple of days and your claim of 10m of the 20m bpd is grossly incorrect, but by all means show us your math on how you arrive at that claim so I can let him know.
When OPEC cuts production to prop up prices you don’t think that lowers the amount of barrels that move through the straight? The other poster is trying to say oil traders don’t know how to price demand with supply because they found an invoice of some refinery with their pants down overpaying for oil to keep their units running. The Cheveron CEO said there will be supply shortages and there will be, people die every year of starvation and a box of cereal is not $50. You cannot price all demand into what a desperate person will pay |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4032733)
It was 20m when demand was at $58. You don’t have to get to 10m to get to half demand of the straight at $112 barrel.
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4032733)
I mean the straight (sic) was moving 20m a day, the pipelines to bypass it are probably moving half.
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Originally Posted by jerryleber
(Post 4032736)
Nice try, but you weren't talking about demand destruction. You were talking about flow through "pipelines to bypass" and erroneously claimed they could probably transport 10m bpd.
He was saying that last shipment of ME oil had landed and it had not, oil is still getting out. The context was 20m a day in world oil demand through the straight on feb28 at $58 a barrel on the oil indexes. |
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