Economic Impacts of Iran War
 

Re-opening this discussion, no partisan politics or discussion as to why the war started or whether it should have started.

It's here, lets just discuss that reality.

WSJ is calling this Gulf War III, but I'm not sure it's in the same league without lots of boots on ground.

Turns out this oil spike (to date) is a lower inflation-adjusted level than resulted from previous conflicts. Stock markets seem to believe that it won't last very long.

I think a big fork in the road comes if the Administration decides boots on the ground is warranted and to what extent the new regime, whose dad, mom and wife we were killed last week, is willing to burn it down on the way out.

A twist is the US Treasury allow Russian oil purchases

I don't think they care if we bomb them back to the stone age they'll continue to crank out drones & lob them into the Strait with enough success to effectively keep it closed. But what do I know - Jack $hit. Puts me on equal footing with the hucksters podcasters & tv hosts that got us into this.

Netanyahu(puppet master) isn’t going to quit until a regime change occurs. Iran has massive leverage with the flow of oil, so that change isn’t going to occur quickly.

Russia(big) was going to crush Ukraine(small) in a matter of weeks. Iran will get external support, just as Ukraine did.

This will last longer than we want it too. It really isn’t a complex mystery.

It isn't even truly known yet if the new guy in charge is actually alive, or if he is alive if he's in any condition to actually lead (coma, severe injuries, etc). It could be that the IRGC is really running the show. They certainly seem to be doing a good job for the time being on keeping a lid on any protests or internal uprisings.

The spike is a lot lower due to the first goal for oil spike crisis caused a lot of countries to begin their own energy independence from the Middle East. That’s how the US became more independent and why it’s not hitting us as hard as the UK and Britain. Still what what’s Scott Kirby says it’s true which I assume it is jet fuel being up 58% not gonna help anybody’s profit margin

Current spot fuel prices are where they were just a few days ago and going higher:

https://i.ibb.co/GDdhV8D/image.png

as noted from other thread, based off $4/gas.:

Daily increase in cost, in millions:
American - $19.8m
Delta - $19.9m
United - $19.9m
SWA - $9.4m

Apparently, the bigger issue is Europe, getting ~30% of their JetA from Kuwait. The upside? The lack of fuel supply might lend to canceling flights 20%-30%, which would push up margins and allow airlines to recover their increased costs.

If Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC pumps as much as they possibly can, the 20 mbd deficit will fall to about 12 mbd. That is still enormous. I honestly don't know why the markets haven't increased even more. The 400m barrels released from strategic reserves is being down at something like 2 mbd, hardly a dent.

agreed. It’s different than the first 2 right up until we have troops on the ground. although the first started solely as an air war, everyone knew the plan was a ground offensive after we owned the sky. I really hope that isn’t the plan here.

I was surprised here too. I have to wonder if that was a deal in exchange for them not supporting Iran militarily in this conflict.

UBS thinks that only UA, DL, and WN can stay in the black at these gas prices.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...rices.amp.html

Gulf I was BoG because Iraq had BoG in other countries.

Gulf II was revenge, we were collectively mighty pizzed off.

Gulf III has limited domestic support to begin with, and almost none for BoG. I hope and assume that congress would interject themselves if it got to that... they'd have more to fear from their own constituents than from Trump at that point.

I kind of doubt it was a deal per se, but it might have been a reward for good behavior... both RU and PRC are sitting this one out, aside from the usual strongly worded diplomatic scoldings.