Airline Pilot Central Forums - Economic Impacts of Iran War

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Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed (Post 4012218)

was hoping Alaska would be on that list but I guess merging 2 companies and fighting rising fuel cost are not a winning combo wonder if AS will “right size” the HA side by getting rid of NEOs and back to a single narrow body fleet

proudly Boeing - what would they do for inter island flying ? You really need a 100 seat airplane for thin routes. Maybe bring in Horizon to do inter island ? Man I should be an airline executive

Also a member on Alaska airline BOD is former Boeing ceo. They get sweet Boeing pricing . It will be 787s , 737s in less than 3 years. As far as Amazon contract who knows. How much do you really make doing Amazon ?

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Originally Posted by flensr (Post 4012235)

What nobody is saying - All these countries that Iran is actually hitting, what would the damage be if they were permitted to have nukes?

If Iran had nukes, they would not be attacked like this. Nor would they start a nuclear war on their own.

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Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4012231)

They aren't going to have many balls left. We're not going to let them retain stockpiles and production facilities. Right now all of their stuff is being attrited by us, or by being expended, whichever comes first. They can hide some, but not much.

Unless you go boots on the ground, they will replenish cheap drones in facilities we don’t even know about. We are blowing up their obvious targets - Air Force and Navy equipment.

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No they cannot. This is their big temper tantrum, they shot their wad. The US, GCC states, and the rest of the world will not allow them to just randomly interdict the global economy whenever they feel like it, indefinitely.

What are you gonna do about it? Bomb them? They absolutely will create turmoil. Everyone in the ME has stabbed Iran in the back. They’ll remember all of it and retaliate this for time to come.

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While they have the capacity to create enough risk to spook maritime insurance brokers, that's not the same as having enough capacity to physically stop commerce. The rest of the world just has to decide they've had enough (or the Iranian people might).

This overthrow nonsense needs to stop. It’s not happening. You don’t go bomb a country to obliteration and simultaneously tell the people to go uprise.

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Also while almost nobody in the US wants boots on ground, that is one way to secure the AG/SoH. I won't get into details but we don't need to seize the entire country.

I’ve heard it all now. Obama will get us into a war with Iran. Kamala will get us into a war with Iran. Trump getting into an Iran war was wild - after calling out the other two for potentially doing the same.

Boots in Iran will fail, just like Vietnam and Afghanistan.

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Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed (Post 4012218)

*sad trombone noises*

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Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4012232)

I did not close the other thread. The only time I get the "last word" is if I'm explaining why a thread got closed.

Again, do not discuss how/why we got here, or whether it was a good idea, this is not the place for that and only leads down one road. If you're going to protest the war or complain about moderation, better to just stay out of this thread.

Protest is banned and only cheerleading allowed is how I read that statement. Doesn’t seem very “fair and balanced”. Not that I am surprised it’s just the quiet part out loud.

I agree with many that this is a long term war, excursion, diversion, special military action or whatever name that is reapplied daily like makeup. Iran is not getting bombed out of the ability to wreak havoc If it was the straits would be open today. The fact that we are two weeks in and they are not open says a lot. This has reinvigorated Iranian nationalism and they will not walk away quietly. The hornets nest has been kicked over.

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Originally Posted by SampsonSimpson (Post 4012169)

Netanyahu(puppet master) isn’t going to quit until a regime change occurs.

I disagree. He knows that just like the average Palestinian the average Iranian is no fan of Israel. Any functioning Iran will still be a threat so I think he would prefer to keep bombing Iran until it looks like Gaza. Hence he is fine with destroying their oil industry and any possible leadership. Our goals are not aligned.

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Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4012231)

They don't need much of a 'wad' to disrupt the SOH for long enough to cause enormous economic pain. That's why it's called asymmetric.

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Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4012231)

Also while almost nobody in the US wants boots on ground, that is one way to secure the AG/SoH. I won't get into details but we don't need to seize the entire country

As if it's a secret, and therein lies the big problem. No wonder it got leaked from the top of the Pentagon that this would be a mess.

The first Gulf war caused panam and Eastern to fail I wouldn't be surprised if we lost a few airlines this time.

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Originally Posted by BobSacamano (Post 4012209)

UBS thinks that only UA, DL, and WN can stay in the black at these gas prices.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...rices.amp.html

Not surprising, AA could barely hang on when all the conditions were perfect.

Spirit, JetBlue and AA probably don't survive this as they are now.

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Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4012244)

If Iran had nukes, they would not be attacked like this. Nor would they start a nuclear war on their own.

That’s an interesting take. A terrorist culture with nuclear weapons being even keeled at the controls.