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Originally Posted by Beech Dude
(Post 4022852)
Sounds good. Call your Rep and Senator and get that 25th Amendment going I guess.
--Out-- |
Originally Posted by CBreezy
(Post 4022855)
Said by someone who doesn't understand the 25th amendment.
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Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 4022672)
Korea supplies something like 70% of west coast jet fuel, now that Korea isn't getting crude, no jet fuel for the west coast.
If anything it's the opposite, seems some powerful people with deep pockets are keeping a lid on commodity prices somehow. Even with recent upticks in production from other places, we are at least 5 million barrels a day short. Oil should be trading in the $200+ range by now. I wouldn’t examine it too closely because a lot of it is shipping efficiency during periods of tight margins. 20% SOH number is already dated because Saudi has a huge pipelines that can pump crude west across the country but it still needs to be loaded on ships, so normally cheaper to not pay to pump crude from one port to another port. Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel. There has never been a period in history where the world consumed 101m bpd at $200 price point index. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4022870)
The gulf coast supplies some of Caribbean and SA.
I wouldn’t examine it too closely because a lot of it is shipping efficiency during periods of tight margins. 20% SOH number is already dated because Saudi has a huge pipelines that can pump crude west across the country but it still needs to be loaded on ships, so normally cheaper to not pay to pump crude from one port to another port. Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel. There has never been a period in history where the world consumed 101m bpd at $200 price point. |
Originally Posted by Beech Dude
(Post 4022848)
Every President in history has said something offensive or in poor taste. No one is perfect. Im not defending Trump's tweets. I agree, hes an idiot most of the time with it and honestly we'd all be better off if he stopped. Head examined? Because I don't go into a tizzy over an asinine tweet or something an elected official said that could be offensive? Alright. Ill call a doc and ask him if being too mature can be cured.
But hey, Trump is the only politician to ever say something stupid, I forgot. "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man." -- Former Pres. Joe Biden. "Strategery." -- Former Pres. G. W. Bush "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." Former Pres. Bill Clinton
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4022870)
The gulf coast supplies some of Caribbean and SA.
I wouldn’t examine it too closely because a lot of it is shipping efficiency during periods of tight margins. 20% SOH number is already dated because Saudi has a huge pipelines that can pump crude west across the country but it still needs to be loaded on ships, so normally cheaper to not pay to pump crude from one port to another port. Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel. There has never been a period in history where the world consumed 101m bpd at $200 price point index. Like I wrote previously, we were down 20 mbd but production other countries have increased production to lower that to about 5 mbd deficit. This has nothing to do with total consumption, because supply and demand were relatively equal before. Now, they are not. Of interest, just a 3 mbd deficit caused the huge price increase back in mid-2000s. I'm not talking about the gulf coast, I'm talking about the west coast of the US, who get the lions share of their jet fuel from Korea. This is not just a Europe or Asia problem anymore. |
Originally Posted by Beech Dude
(Post 4022839)
Are we murdering our citizens for protesting?
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Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4022870)
20% SOH number is already dated because Saudi has a huge pipelines that can pump crude west across the country but it still needs to be loaded on ships, so normally cheaper to not pay to pump crude from one port to another port. Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel.
The Saudi East-West pipeline system (Petroline) which has been damaged to some extent by Iran can transport up to 7m bpd, though in early 2026, about 2m bpd was being used, leaving some spare capacity, but the Red Sea port of Yanbu can only handle about 5m bpd. So that is an additional 3m bpd and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) is now pumping near its max of 1.8m bpd up from its normal 1.0m bpd. So that would mean an additional 3.8m bpd or about 20% of what typically goes through the Strait of Hormuz (20m bpd). And if the Yanbu crude heads south it has to go by Yemen and the Houthi’s. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4022870)
Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel.
There has never been a period in history where the world consumed 101m bpd at $200 price point index. |
Originally Posted by Judge Smails
(Post 4022845)
He is the President of the United States. If you are chalking up posts alluding to genocide as just another “stupid tweet” you need to have your head examined. It’s pathetic how low the bar has been set and what is deemed acceptable rhetoric by an alarmingly large percentage of Americans.
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Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 4022625)
Fake news, I was assured my many on here just one month ago Iran would capitulate in just a few days and the admin would insure tankers to allow their continued passage.
Now not only is that not coming tho fruition but the admin itself is blocking the straight. You just can't make this stuff up. |
Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 4022892)
Change in policy, instead of keeping the Straight of Hormuz open we are now blockading it to keep it closed.
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers
(Post 4022897)
Are you aware that the US blockade is only in force against shipping to/from Iran.....not all the other ports in the Persian Gulf?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w39lg84w2o |
Originally Posted by Buck Rogers
(Post 4022897)
Are you aware that the US blockade is only in force against shipping to/from Iran.....not all the other ports in the Persian Gulf?
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 4022902)
Yes, and we now just lost our last ally in the world and could face some interesting situations. The UK says their Navy will not participate with the US and the UK will work to keep the straights open.
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Originally Posted by at6d
(Post 4022923)
The UK is our last ally? This is not correct.
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Originally Posted by Judge Smails
(Post 4022887)
A simple AI search would explain how that’s possible, and oil has reached $211 (adjusted for inflation) a barrel at the consumption rate of 85-86 million barrels per day in 2008. I still remember it well as a starving RJ FO paying $4.29 a gallon for 87 octane in July 2008, which is the equivalent of $6.44 a gallon today.
2008 USA oil production was 5mbpd, 2025 was over 13MPBD and limited at that because of a $50-60 price point. A small process was invented called fracking, and the USA has millions of barrels of oil at a cost index way below $200 a barrel. OPEC drives the price of oil down every few years to maintain market share and run the frackers out of business and their ch11/7 add a base cost per barrel to the future operators. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4022950)
Not following. At 85-86mbpd we don’t need the SOH.
2008 USA oil production was 5mbpd, 2025 was over 13MPBD and limited at that because of a $50-60 price point. A small process was invented called fracking, and the USA has millions of barrels of oil at a cost index way below $200 a barrel. OPEC drives the price of oil down every few years to maintain market share and run the frackers out of business and their ch11/7 add a base cost per barrel to the future operators. |
Originally Posted by Judge Smails
(Post 4022958)
You're not following. Global daily consumption was 85-86 mbpd in 2008. We're at 105-106 mbpd today. The oil market is also not segmented into nations. It's global, we're all holding hands in this.
Your average steak consumption per year is at a specific price point. If you eat 20lbs of ribeye per year it was at a price point and not at all price points. Demand falls hard when oil goes up, some dude somewhere cancels driving 300 miles one way to buy a boat that’s burns 30gph. Gas by my house was $2.20 a gallon before this by my house. Drive that backwards to 2008 and see how cheap it is to cause more demand. The consumption “snapshot” makes the straight look more important and gives iran more to hold out. |
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