Jet Fuel Shortage
 

Jet Fuel Crunch Is Getting Severe With No Reprieve in Sight for Airlines

Countries in Asia and Europe are starting to run out of jet fuel, and it could take months for supplies to recover

PARIS—For more than a month, the war with Iran has choked off one of the world’s most critical sources of jet fuel, triggering a swift and dramatic shortage across the aviation world.

Airlines, airports and fuel suppliers are warning that Tuesday’s cease-fire deal—even if it holds—won’t solve the jet fuel crisis any time soon.

China, a refining powerhouse, has stopped exporting jet fuel so it can meet its own needs, and airports across Asia, including in Vietnam and Myanmar, are already running out of supply. Europe is on the cusp of severe shortages as soon as May if the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to global markets, isn’t fully reopened.


To cope, airlines are trimming their schedules and piling on fees. United Airlines has scrapped some red-eye and midweek flights, while Air France is charging business class passengers more to offset the fuel burden of their heavier seats. Korean Air declared its own corporate emergency, telling staff to cancel all nonessential travel.

The Middle East supplies about a fifth of the world’s jet fuel, a form of kerosene that is purer and can withstand the freezing temperatures at cruise altitudes. But with producers in the region locked out of the Strait of Hormuz, prices have surged to a record high of more than $200 a barrel, up from around $90 at this time last year.

President Trump’s temporary agreement with Iran offered some relief, but not much. Spot prices for jet fuel in the U.S. initially fell to $175 a barrel, before rising more than 2% on Thursday, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index. While Iran had agreed to reopen the crucial waterway after repeated strikes on commercial tankers, no ship carrying jet fuel has yet to pass through, according to tracking service Kpler.


In Europe, which gets about a quarter of its jet fuel from Gulf producers, the situation is getting severe. Without a dramatic change in tankers’ access to the strait, airports are weeks away from shortages akin to those currently playing out in Asia, an industry body wrote to the European Union’s transport commissioner.

“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” Olivier Jankovec, head of Airports Council International Europe, said in the letter dated April 9.

At the weekend, there were already signs that supplies at a handful of European airports are stretched, exacerbated by a storm in the Mediterranean that disrupted deliveries. Individual airports including in Italy, the U.K., Netherlands and France issued warnings to airlines that Jet A1, one of the most widely used types of jet fuel, was temporarily available in limited supply—or not at all.

Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of the war, far outpacing the rise in crude oil prices, which reflects how disproportionately concentrated jet fuel production is in the Persian Gulf. Specialists say it will take months before global supplies start to normalize.


“The first thing is getting the product that’s already been refined out and then getting comfortable with what the political situation is going to be,” said Dave Diulus, chief executive of JetFuel Direct, which connects buyers and sellers of the fuel. No clear picture has emerged yet about how badly jet fuel infrastructure in the region was hit after weeks of Iranian missile and drone strikes. Kuwaiti refineries, among the world’s biggest producers of jet fuel, have cut back production after being hit by Iran. That is complicating efforts to forecast just how quickly Gulf states can turn their taps back on.

“Pipelines have been attacked, refineries have been attacked, storage depots have been attacked,” said Hassan El-Houry, executive chairman of Menzies Aviation, the world’s biggest airport services company. “I’m not sure that we have the full knowledge of what has been damaged.”

It’s not only getting the jet fuel out of the Mideast that is causing the problem: Refiners outside the region also need the oil pumped in Gulf nations to produce enough of the product locally. That is especially true in Asian economies which buy about 85% of all the crude that passes through Hormuz, according to the International Air Transport Association.


China has halted jet fuel exports, reserving production for domestic airlines, which in turn have added fuel surcharges to airfares. In both Vietnam and Myanmar, shortages have been so severe that airlines have slashed operations, while foreign carriers have added fuel stops outside those countries to ensure they can fly back out.“It’s entirely possible that parts of Asia are just going to run out of fuel,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters in late March. “And today, some of that fuel comes to the U.S.” West Coast, he added, which means American airports could start to feel the squeeze soon.

U.S. carriers, which long ago abandoned expensive oil hedging strategies, have been hit particularly hard by the surge in prices. That was, in part, a bet that fuel price swings could be managed better by adjusting capacity and fares. This time, it has left airlines staring down billions of dollars in added costs, which they are trying to pass onto consumers with hopes that demand won’t be decimated.

The war has also left airlines largely shut out of critical airspace corridors in the Middle East that offer the quickest connections between Europe and Asia. That has carriers rerouting flights, which adds to flight-times and burns more fuel.

Australia’s Qantas, for example, has scrapped its direct flight from Perth to London—one of the world’s longest flights—and has asked passengers to bear with a refueling stop in Singapore. The change adds about an hour of flight time and an extra, fuel-intensive takeoff from Changi Airport.

Most Gulf countries have moved quickly this week to reopen airspace after the cease-fire, despite Iranian missiles continuing to target them. Europe’s aviation safety regulator on Thursday extended a formal advisory warning airlines against almost all operations in Mideast airspace until at least April 24.

Delta is also scaling back redeyes and low yield flights

Fake news, I was assured my many on here just one month ago Iran would capitulate in just a few days and the admin would insure tankers to allow their continued passage.

Now not only is that not coming tho fruition but the admin itself is blocking the straight.

You just can't make this stuff up.

hush, the geopolitical/military/history/economic masterminds have told us this overly qualified administration has… a plan

So there’s still three weeks to open the Strait?

Now Trump is blocking the entirety of the SOH. Not even Iranian oil can ship out.



Enjoy the upcoming gas prices!



I remember 2022 when the Biden “I did that!” Stickers were on gas pumps.



I better see the same for Trump now.

What happed to energy independent?

I’d think between Canada, ourselves and S America this shouldn’t cause much issue in the US, seems like BS price gouging

I just did a couple searches on a few items and this is what I found.

1. On mine sweeping / opening up SOH
Clearing the mines and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic is expected to be a slow, painstaking process that could take several weeks to several months, even after initial demining operations begin.
New Republic +1
While the U.S. military began “setting conditions” for mine clearance on April 11, 2026, by sending warships into the area, experts warn that the complex nature of the mining means the strait will not open immediately.lNew Republic +1
Key Factors Affecting Reopening Time

• Difficulty Locating Mines: Reports indicate that Iran laid mines in a scattered, "haphazard" manner, with some allowed to drift, meaning they did not record the locations of all deployed mines, making detection incredibly slow.
• Limited Mining Assets: The U.S. retired its dedicated, wooden-hulled Avenger-class minesweepers in 2025 and is now relying on newer, less tested technology, such as Littoral Combat Ships and underwater drones, which may prove slower in a "hot war" environment.
• Commercial Confidence: A "militarily clear" area is not immediately safe for commercial vessels. Insurance companies will require weeks of proof of safety before resuming coverage, meaning insurance hurdles will likely cause a longer-term economic impact than the physical demining.
• Volume of Traffic: With over 400 loaded tankers and 2,000 ships waiting to exit or enter, a full return to normal operations is likely to take until July 2026, according to some shipping analysts.

2. why are gas prices so high when the United States is Energy independent.


The U.S. is a major oil producer but not immune to high gas prices because oil is a globally traded commodity, not a localized one. Prices are set by international market supply and demand; when global events (like conflicts or supply cuts) raise prices, U.S. consumers pay that same high price.

Key reasons for this include:

• Global Pricing Market: Even with high domestic production, US refineries sell to the world market and compete with global prices

Korea supplies something like 70% of west coast jet fuel, now that Korea isn't getting crude, no jet fuel for the west coast.

If anything it's the opposite, seems some powerful people with deep pockets are keeping a lid on commodity prices somehow. Even with recent upticks in production from other places, we are at least 5 million barrels a day short. Oil should be trading in the $200+ range by now.

True, and when calculating fuel prices, be sure to add missile & bomb expenses, oil company tax payer funded subsidies, and the cost of dead soldiers.

Funny thing about US airliners, they fly to (and must refuel in)...wait for it .. foreign countries.

maybe we will start tankering.

Yes, I'm sure our WB fleet can tanker all the gas they need to fly to SIN, HKG, TPE etc etc and back without refueling. We just need the 777-11X with the 30-hour tank setup.

sounds like we’re invading Korea next…

The SoH handles.< 20% of the world's crude. Period. It's a pinch in the flow, not a total kink. Yes, doing daily with less, but oil isnt single-sourced from the Strait. More of the same ahead...take a breath, its ok.

doesn’t do much good when that aircraft needs fuel in a non energy independent country…to get home

before or after Cuba?

That 20% represents the biggest energy shock in modern history. A recession is sustained negative GDP and a depression is defined as negative 10% GDP.

The embargo in the 70s, when the spigot actually shut was more of a shock. We were paying about the same for crude 4 years ago (Brent avg was $100) and the world/media wasn't crying about it. 89 was almost $7/gal on the West Coast and in Chicago. GDP for 2025 was 2.1%. Q1 2026 estimates are 1.8-2.3% from what I've seen. Woosah

How much energy infrastructure was destroyed 4 years ago?

Sorry, the "spigot actually (didn't) shut".

1973–74 Shock: Arab oil producers embargoed the US, with production cuts amounting to about 7% of global oil consumption. Oil prices quadrupled in some markets.

1979–80 Shock: The Iranian Revolution led to a decrease of nearly 4.8 million barrels per day, roughly 7% of world production at the time.

Ok. Spigot being a euphemism.

US ops haven't destroyed any energy infrastructure. If you're referring to Kharg Island; only military targets were hit.

As stated earlier, global shortages are in the 5-7 billion barrels/day ballpark. That's in-line with the 70s embargo numbers and current Brent is at $103. So similar daily deficit to the embargo days (with more energy produced today then before so that 7% is even lower) and only $3 per barrel more than 2022; again, this is a short term shock, not some mass global catastrophe that you stated from the IEA's panicked message of "in the history of the global oil market."

Really? When and how will it end?

https://a.co/d/0hYgF5HN

I like that they’re oversized. Good solution for a variety of products.

Its been less than 2 months so its very much in the short/near term arena.

How will this end? No idea.

You can't be serious in your statement about energy infrastructure.

Also, it's irrelevant if US infrastructure is hit or not. Oil is a global commodity, not a local one.

I don’t think oil prices care if the bombs that destroyed a large chunk of middle eastern petroleum infrastructure cares were American, Israeli or Iranian. The fact is if Trump and Israel didn’t start this very poorly thought out, and even more poorly executed war then the oil infrastructure would be perfectly fine and humming along at the $70 per barrel status quo. But such is the price of “winning”.

I think you’re missing a minor detail with the infrastructure. The Iranians, with the missiles and drones we completely wiped out, have damaged or destroyed significant infrastructure in Gulf states.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/new...news%20agency.

…and now we’re blockading the Iranian blockade after we lifted sanctions on Iranian oil to help keep prices down. The brilliance of this 4D chess game is beyond comprehension.

Head, meet sand. Conservative estimates say 30-40% of Persian Gulf infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. Gulf states are being very cagey about publicizing damage, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the percentage is actually higher. 20% is an absolutely huge shock to the system and that’s not even accounting for things like the specific kerosene needed to make ice resistant Jet A or natural gas, which are being squeezed even tighter. The fact that a barrel of oil hasn’t absolutely skyrocketed in price yet is meaningless if your airline can’t put fuel in the tanks at any price.

Iran lashing out and damaging refineries to an industry they also need was an impotent, childish lash out because they have no leverage over the Persian Gulf now. US and IDF have air superiority, Iranian naval presence is almost null, as much as AP, CNN, MSNBC want the mines to be a factor, and the drones are hap- hazard, and a pin prick tactically speaking.

Poorly executed? 5,000 targets prosecuted, over 125 aircraft destroyed, govt/mil communications severely degraded, zero airlift/support capacity, Naval and Ground force operations nil, not to mention Ayatollah eliminated and their nuclear ambitions also severely degraded.

Overall Iran finally put in its place and will continue to be. Stress on global oil and economies? Yes. Meltdown and impending doom coming due today regional conflict because less than 20% of the world's crude is being affected? Nope.

Direct action is messy, diplomacy is messy. It hasn't been 2 months. I love how the media and so many people are losing and asking why hasn't everything been solved already!? This operation hasn't been perfect?! Outrageous! The US is attacking a regime that murders 40K of its own people and sponsors terror proxies. Outrageous!

Do they still have the enriched uranium? Is the Strait of Hormuz open? Is the Islamic Republic still in control? How exactly has "Iran finally (been) put in its place?

Yes; with no way to further produce or employ a weapon.

Yes; but, understandably, most commercial civilian vessels are not passing due to increased risk.

No. Current leadership is floundering, see recent Islamabad talks. Total flop fest.

See examples above. Iran isn't winning at anything as much as you all want them to and for the Orangeman to be the baddie.

Sorry, but reality and your perception of it WRT Iran and the Persian Gulf are quite different.

Friendly reminder that our president has zero issue with killing potentially millions of Iranian civilians too. We have zero moral high ground in this war. Zero.

Stupid tweets are just that, stupid. I agree most don't help, but guess what? DoW and LOAC have a huge problem with killing millions of civilians and our military will rightfully follow them; Iranian civilians will not be targeted by US Forces, thats a never-ending guarantee.

Are we murdering our citizens for protesting? Do we publicly execute homosexuals in the US and I've just never known it? No moral high ground? Sure pal.

Time to touch grass as the kids say these days...

He is the President of the United States. If you are chalking up posts alluding to genocide as just another “stupid tweet” you need to have your head examined. It’s pathetic how low the bar has been set and what is deemed acceptable rhetoric by an alarmingly large percentage of Americans.

We were told last summer that we had effectively ended their nuclear program. You’ll have to excuse the more skeptical of us if we think the nuclear issue might just be used as an excuse for future US and Israeli military “excursions”.

The straight is open but commercial ships don’t want to cross due to risk? Do you hear yourself? If you can’t see what an oxymoronic statement that is, I don’t know if there’s any hope for you. It’s kinda like saying cigarettes are totally good for you, it’s just that pesky tar and nicotine that gets you addicted and gives you cancer.

Iran has lost a lot, that I’ll give you. We have trounced them by every military metric. But if you’ve been paying attention, we’ve learned (or should have learned) in every conflict since World War Two that you can win every battle and still wind up in a strategic loss or stalemate. That happens when your objectives aren’t clearly defined before commencing action and/or you allow mission creep to constantly move the goalposts as you go along.

The fact is the Iranian “regime” has not been changed. Hardliners remain in power and the IRGC remains loyal. Prior to the war, the idea that Iran could close the straight was only a theory. Now it’s been proven. Expect them to continue flex that capability in the future. Before the war, we thought we could shut down their nuclear ambitions with a few well placed massive ordinance penetrators. Apparently that wasn’t sufficient & we’re left with two options: a ground campaign that secures their nuclear materials, or a robust agreement that allows verification of them dismantling the program. Neither of those options seem likely or realistic.

So please do tell us, despite pummeling however many military targets, how exactly are we coming out ahead here? I see a great many downsides & little to no upside here.

Every President in history has said something offensive or in poor taste. No one is perfect. Im not defending Trump's tweets. I agree, hes an idiot most of the time with it and honestly we'd all be better off if he stopped. Head examined? Because I don't go into a tizzy over an asinine tweet or something an elected official said that could be offensive? Alright. Ill call a doc and ask him if being too mature can be cured.

But hey, Trump is the only politician to ever say something stupid, I forgot.

"​I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man."
-- Former Pres. Joe Biden.

"Strategery." -- Former Pres. G. W. Bush

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman." Former Pres. Bill Clinton

Thank you for pointing out the difference between a stupid tweet/statement and something that is certifiably insane.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”

-Current President Donald J. Trump

Who knows? Maybe I’ll order a nuclear strike or destroy water desalination plants, maybe I won’t. We’ll just have to wait and see.

I mean compared to Biden’s stupidity, they’re totally the same thing.

Sounds good. Call your Rep and Senator and get that 25th Amendment going I guess.

--Out--