Major Airline Retirements
 

I thought I would post this before it becomes obsolete. These are numbers I have dug up and collected from multiple threads. These numbers are between 3-6 months old, so they are not 100% accurate, but they should give a good glimpse into retirement numbers at major airlines.

Once again, these are slightly old numbers and they cannot be verified. These are only numbers that people who work for these airlines have posted. I think they are still pretty useful. It is going to be interesting to see how a possible change to age 60 could shake this industry up.

[QUOTE=aerospacepilot;206814]I thought I would post this before it becomes obsolete. These are numbers I have dug up and collected from multiple threads. These numbers are between 3-6 months old, so they are not 100% accurate, but they should give a good glimpse into retirement numbers at major airlines.

NWA...what are our numbers?

[quote=reddog25;206945]NWA has a few guys/gals retiring, too. :confused:


2008................... 239
2009................... 166
2010................... 188
2011................... 187
2012................... 207
2013................... 207
2014................... 239
2015................... 278
2016................... 260
2017................... 295

I think there are still 100 or so to go thru the end of this year, also.


Not exact numbers, but in the ballpark. :rolleyes:

New K Now

FedEx Retirement Chart
 

Here is a FedEx retirement chart. It DOES NOT take into account any age 65 legislation.

Speaking of that.....what is the current situation on the age 65 add on to the FAA reauth bill? Will it pass as is? or will someone strip it out? For another year or two?

Retirements
 

Industry wide there are perhaps between 1000 to 1500 annual retirements over the next ten years or so at the majors. Unless they expand rapidly there will be slim pickings for those hoping to jump to the majors.


SkyHigh

Ah it doesn't matter what the thread, you're always handy with a wet blanket. I guess slim pickings are good as everyone I know who went looking in past two years has been picked up.

'Slim pickings' are a hell of an improvement from 'no one is hiring.'

Not that forecasts beyond maybe 12 months are worth anything anyway.

Go ahead and tell me I'm wrong.

Forecast
 

You are correct about the future. It is a wildcard. I expect that the legacies will continue to reduce over the next 10 years as 90 seat RJ's and LCC's continue to take all the domestic routes.

You might call my views as a wet blanket however I would refer to them as an honest evaluation. I am sure that you will reach your career goals. The next question will be it you will be able to hang on to them.

SkyHigh

Yeah, so just shift everything to the right 5 years :D.

I gotta ask since this is been discussed so much. Who's to say everyone would retire 5 years later w/the age 65 limit? Don't most companies allow for some form of early retirement? I'm new to the industry, so I honestly don't know.

I would think the age 65 rule will slow seniority somewhat, but not as much as folks would think.

Yes, you are correct. Airlines will let you retire anytime you want. Depending on how the guy's career panned out, his spending habits, how many wives he has, ect, some guys could walk at 50 and be set the rest of their lives.

Others, for whatever reason, may need the additional 5 years to make up for whatever they did, or however their career panned out. Maybe the guy was furloughed/displaced multiple times or had something else happen (illness, family issues) to where he was never really able to get a sizable retirement nest egg going.

My comment was meant as common joke that is starting to take place with age 65 becoming a reality.

I agree because Sick Leave and LTD for those above 60 will be very high maybe as high as 30 to 40 percent. Those actually flying will have a very high sick call rate so that could effectively make it 50% less then if age 60 stayed the same.

Lets not stray into one of those age 65 things. Almost every thread about retirements gets hijacked into age 65 :rolleyes:. Does anyone have any numbers on other major carriers such as Alaska, Spirit, Jet Blue, and of course the larger regionals Skywest, RAH and such?

Can you imagine the headache this is going to cause for airline management? If it passes that an over 60 guy can only fly with an under 60 guy, what a scam for FO's at airlines that still have line bidding. The under 60 guy can buddy bid with the over 60 guy and get displaced off his trip and sit at home. Of course with a PBS type system it will just withhold the trip and the senior/old FO won't be able to take advantage.

The other thing, airlines will think it's great that guys over 60 can fly. Except for when they start calling sick at their high pay rates and realize they are going to need to staff better. To top it off, the amount of vacation time accrued, as well as the hourly cost of that vacation is going to be big.

I agree 100%. I don't understand why any airline would support changing the age 60 rule.:confused:

Alaska
2007 76
2008 48
2009 43
2010 48
2011 52
2012 49
2013 47
2014 50
2015 55
2016 58
2017 59
2018 51
2019 58
2020 58
2021 52
2022 79
2023 56
2024 74
2025 51
2026 54
2027 67
2028 53
2029 64
2030 56
2031 50
These numbers may not seem large, but in comparison we only have 1500 pilots - so these numbers ARE large.

Also, it takes number 1100ish to make captain here. That means 7 years for someone hired right now assuming zero growth.
FYI

Thanks for the effort. Do you have anything past 2017?
Thanks

Here are some numbers from AE:

Year Ret.
2007 34
2008 31
2009 27
2010 34
2011 31
2012 31
2013 33
2014 50
2015 54
2016 71
2017 74
2018 72
2019 65
2020 94
2021 90
2022 88
2023 117
2024 90
2025 96
2026 87
2027 108
2028 96
2029 100
2030 97
2031 91
2032 103
2033 102
2034 85
2035 97
2036 67
2037 60
2038 68
2039 59
2040 66
2041 53
2042 59
2043 33
2044 13
2045 7

These numbers are from our Feb 07 Seniority list. We have approx 3000 pilots total on our list. These numbers dont include any AA flowbacks who came from AA to AE when they were furloughed. There were about 350 total flowbacks and I think there are about 234 left on the list. Due to AA recalls I expect most of them to be recalled in the next 2-3 years.

At SkyWest, it seems we only have an age sixty retirement a couple times a year. Out of 2760 pilots it wouldn't surprise me if less than 50-100 will retire in the next ten years. The really senior guys seem to only be mid to late 40's. Very company young company overall, as most of the growth has happened in the last 5-8 years. 7 1/2 years with the company and I'm in the top 20% of the seniority list.

I don't think any airline does. It's such an emotional and PC/not PC topic, that most airlines don't want to go on the record yet. I know that NWA mgm't is the only carrier that has gone on the record against it, they also printed a brochure that said employees that took pay-cuts shouldn't be ashamed to shop at the Goodwill or junk-yards. I've heard that Jet-blue has even said they'd implement it retroactively. Maybe a JB guy can confirm?

Age 60 legislation
 

The bills are titled the "Freedom to Fly Act 2007" and are:
H.R. 1125 w/ 245 sponsors and
S.65 w/ 44 sponsors (note-sponsor totals include the individual submitting the bill)


Both bills are sitting in committee with no action for the past few months.

the FAA's NPRM is still lodged firmly somewhere in the bureaucratic process with no additional info other than Blakely's press release in January.

Why is sky high still here?

The FAA process is by definition very slow and deliberate. It is most certainly not dead as many might think.

Your kidding, right? Obviously you don't know how greedy pilots are. Here at UPS, 95% plus of the over 60 guys have stayed. We have close to over 300 FE's now over 60. Instead of retiring after 30 some years of flying, they go back to the back seat for HALF the pay. And we have both an A and B plan.

So if this is any indicator, 95% of pilots will go to 65 if able.

Just consider
 

Every year there are around 10,000 new commercial pilot licenses issued and at least 5000 military pilots trained for an average of less than 2000 good airline jobs from retirements. In addition we have people from overseas coming to the states to take flying jobs.

Future prospects do not seem very bright either. The better airline jobs are being replaced by RJ's and LCCs and we are still waiting for at least one or two of the legacy carriers to fall. Most likely there will be even fewer opportunities for a good job in the future. If the age 65 rule is passed over night there will be almost 17% more pilots.

People blow a small fortune on what really is a slim chance of even being able to earn back the price of entry.

And people claim that "I" am the crazy one.

SkyHigh

Hey man, why is this Sky High guy even here? :mad: There, I saved you the trouble.

FAA STATS: 2006

Commercial--Total 117,610

Airline Transport --Total 141,935

Commercial Issued in 2006 8,687

TABLE 17
ORIGINAL AIRMEN CERTIFICATES ISSUED BY CATEGORY
CALENDAR YEARS 1997-2006

Category of Certificates 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997
Pilot--Total 99,792 91,446 99,416 98,643 113,583 108,000 106,517 101,386 108,994 100,472
StudentE 61,448 53,576 59,202 58,842 65,421 61,897 58,042 58,278 63,037 60,941
Recreational 41 57 47 48 77 61 93 83 69 60
Sport 784 133 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Airplane
Private 20,217 20,889 23,031 23,866 28,659 25,372 27,223 24,630 26,297 21,552
Commercial 8,687 8,834 9,836 9,670 12,299 11,499 11,213 9,737 10,042 8,988
Airline Transport 4,748 4,750 4,255 3,892 4,718 7,070 7,715 6,721 7,547 7,045
Rotorcraft (only) 3,569 2,917 2,736 2,013 2,073 1,698 1,776 1,514 1,530 1,385
Glider (only) 298 290 309 312 336 403 455 423 472 501
Flight Instructor
Certificates 1/ 4,506 3,654 5,044 5,012 6,221 5,781 5,386 4,697 4,647 3,958
Instrument Ratings 2/ 9,559 9,482 10,452 10,069 12,626 11,552 11,148 9,538 9,737 8,392

Nonpilot--Total 12,437 13,217 14,656 13,211 16,172 18,102 17,839 19,782 18,701 16,090
Mechanic 5,555 5,651 6,126 6,064 7,733 8,083 8,894 8,197 8,809 7,439
Control Tower Operator 4/ 802 819 893 856 862 790 675 669 N/A N/A
Repairmen 3/ 3,307 3,628 4,622 3,415 3,743 3,789 4,210 3,903 3,963 3,255
Parachute Rigger 237 243 238 228 238 214 208 193 286 227
Authorized Aircraft Instr. 6 38 72 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Ground Instructor 1,553 1,585 1,919 1,948 2,344 2,087 2,058 1,853 1,972 1,788
Dispatcher 628 657 603 550 722 956 838 964 992 836
Flight Navigator 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 0
Flight Engineer 349 594 182 147 529 2,182 955 4,003 2,679 2,545
Note: In previous releases all instrument ratings had been shown as additional. Total intrument ratings issued can be found in table 21.
E Student certificates issued are estimated.
1/ Not included in total.
2/ Special ratings shown on pilot certificates represented above; not included in total.
3/ Prior to 1995, repairmen were included with mechanics.
4/ Prior to 2001 Control Towr Operators were not included.
N/A Not Applicable
NA Not Available

TABLE 22
STUDENT CERTIFICATES ISSUED, BY MONTH:
CALENDAR YEARS 1997 - 2006

YEAR 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1996
Total 61,448 53,576 58,362 55,446 65,421 61,839 58,042 58,278 63,037 56,653
January 4,489 4,248 4,747 5,346 4,954 4,883 4,234 4,641 4,283 4,067
February 3,951 3,824 4,317 4,114 4,602 4,442 5,846 4,592 4,270 4,057
March 4,605 4,687 4,853 4,306 4,897 5,273 5,063 5,607 4,846 4,301
April 4,375 4,486 4,616 4,294 5,313 4,584 4,001 5,407 4,799 4,758
May 5,217 4,706 4,613 4,982 5,196 5,644 4,697 6,069 4,873 5,065
June 6,050 5,509 5,485 5,531 6,197 6,560 5,182 6,474 5,848 5,031
July 5,684 5,306 6,130 6,046 7,151 6,560 5,037 6,363 6,496 5,807
August 7,203 6,284 6,145 6,216 7,278 7,355 6,401 6,045 6,419 5,564
September 6,064 4,698 5,524 5,592 6,204 4,643 5,216 4,401 6,354 5,192
October 5,437 3,985 4,800 5,201 5,621 5,029 4,958 3,592 5,662 5,310
November 4,468 3,443 4,353 3,818 4,287 4,095 4,130 3,016 4,686 4,240
December 3,905 2,400 2,779 N/A 3,721 2,771 3,277 2,071 4,501 3,261
E Student certificates issued are estimated.
The monthly data for most of 1995 contains an estimated component. System reprogramming caused a loss of some data.

So what? Of course there's a bunch of new pilots learning to fly every year. Doctors don't say," Oh no! I heard that there's a whole bunch of people that want to go to Med school. I better get out of the business because they are probably gonna be better than me and I'll be out of a job". Even sanitation workers have competition(people of similar sanitation backgrounds). Yes, being a Airline Pilot is very competetive, and you're right. There will never be a shortage for real, but so what? There is probably some babies born literally today that may be airline pilots in 25 years. Good for them! Good luck to them. Doesn't mean it's over for everyone else.

An oversupply of qualified pilots means that wages and work rules will continue to deteriorate. Every time the airline industry goes through a down cycle, management will use that to get concessions. Some of those concessions will be regained during up cycles, but not all. 2 steps back, then 1 step forward. That's how I see things going until the oversupply of pilots is somehow corrected. Why pay pilots more, when there are so many out there willing to do the job for less?

What it means
 

What the data means is that if you care about your future then you had better understand what the odds are.

Most other professions have some kind of competition however almost no one would pay the price of a house in training and education for a one in ten chance of earning it back.

So yes, even sanitation workers have some competition but if it doesnt work out their only loss is the time it took to fill out an application.

SkyHigh

The events of 911 "tweaked" the industry a great deal. Still new pilots in, while a bunch on furlough. Age 65 will do that a little bit too. Forget wages going up in our lifetime with RJ's out there. You are correct-As long as people are willing do "donate" their time, working for just about free, the ones that want to get paid will get paid less. Obviously getting all of your ratings is a risk. The degree is yours forever, however, and those who don't make it to a major need to reevaluate and maybe make a career change, losing out on the money they spent on flight training. Maybe work 9-5 somewhere, and at least instruct on the weekends. (Some peolple are happy working for a regional for life, though)--Maybe live in a trailer park or subsidised housing. I wouldn't as a persional choice, for my son did not chose to live like that. But some will, and ys, that will tweak down the salaries of those who made it to a major. But your ratings are yours to keep, and you never know if you'll use them someday, even if to fly your own set of wings that you may afford working in a "real" (sorry) work environment.

Does anyone have retirement numbers beyond 2012 for Southwest?

Wait a damn minute. SWAPA is one of the biggest flag flyers for age 65. Talk to those you sit next to. Don't worry about management on this one as you guys have pushed for it as much as anyone.

Everyone here understands supply and demand and how the over supply reduces pilot career earnings.

Why would XYZ do ABC or say EFG?

Airlines support 65; supply ^

Airlines support MPL; supply ^

Airlines put out to the media misleading claims about pilot earnings; supply ^

Airlines put out to the media misleading claims about pilot shortages; supply ^

Even though you understand the concept, you don't have a clue who hit you.

http://www.aircon.org/

I cannot for the life of me understand why so many pilots want to fly themselves into the grave. Poor financial planning on their part does not constitute a crisis on my part. A very wise (and very wealthy) friend of mine told me when I was in the Air Force that if I didn't put away for my retirement, I had no one to blame but myself if their was nothing to spend when I finally did retire. I'm not planning on working my butt off so when I'm gone those who inherit my stuff can live a life of leisure......... There's way to much to do and see in this world other than the cockpit of an airplane. Pilots who say they are in such great heath and should be flying are fooling themselves. Sure their are a few, but I haven't seen too many. I don't know ANY who can see as well, hear as well, or react as fast as they could when they were younger. As a matter of fact, many of these older pilots seem to relish taking "safety naps" right after the gear pulls up....................... :eek::rolleyes: I plan to be gone by 60, or earlier if the lottery rolls my way. :p Flame away.

Yeah, I agree. The SWA pilot who is gunning for this needs his fricking @ss worked off. He can go buy his own plane and fly it till he dies, but quit trying to make me work for the rest of my life. He says it's about money, but correct me if I'm wrong.............didn't SWA give out their government "bailout money" as profit sharing? How have the SWA pilots been financially harmed by 9-11. That's what I thought........they WEREN'T. Apparently that guy doesn't have nor need a life. :rolleyes:

2012 117
2013 101
2014 63
2015 64
2016 68
2017 90
2018 82
2019 80
2020 77

making six figures a year with 18 days off a month(including holidays) after only 10 years of seniority? I dont think that is a bad deal and it is possible at some of the better regionals. Especially if you had a side business or just invested wisely... you could do fairly well for yourself. ITs time for a reality check if you think the majors are going to keep being the "greener side of the fence". If the majors don't get scope back the regionals WILL be a better career choice. Slightly riskier in the long run but so are majors.

skyhigh i also dont agree with your opinion on "losing out on money." I dont know about you but learning how to fly outside of huge universities is still about 30-40G's which can be viewed as expensive as a masters. Most MBA or equivalents earn about 40 - 70 g's out of school. This is what you could have been making if you got your 4 yr degree, flew for a regional for two years and upgraded somewhere around the 2 yr mark. You would still have made more then that masters degree student. I wish we got paid more too but for young people getting into the industry its comparative to what you could be earning in the outside world. If you want to blame regionals for the major pilots problems then i wonder how they voted on their contract with the scope agreement.

I can understand your comment; flying domestic narrow body is exhausting- I did it for 20 years.

International flying is considerably more relaxed. While some people have trouble with the body clock thing, for the most part it's like a short vacation. If the tempo of a 3 day trip with a 24 hour layover is too fast, try a 4 day trip with a 48 hour layover, or even a 5 day/ 72 hour layover ( the longer layovers tend to go junior to the shorter ones).

We have senior guys who will drop their schedule down to one or two very nice trips (72 hours in Nice is nice!). They are financially able to retire, but don't want to. I don't have a problem with them doing this (even to age 65, when that happens), and I plan to do the same thing when it's my turn.