I guess thats why AMR keeps transfering mainline flying to its regional affiliates.

 

AMR wasn't the first and won't be the last corporation brought to its knees at the mindless pursuit of a flawed business model. (Hint-don't rely upon the guys who dug the hole you're in to be the ones to find a way out of what they've created.) They will keep worshipping at the altar of their failed idea as long as possible because (and this is important, so pay attention!) to do otherwise would be to admit they are failures as managers or leaders! The longer they can get the employees to buy off on subsidizing the business, the longer they will have to get their personal exit strategy in place...

RJ Pilot, Knowledge is Power in executing one's career plan, there are very little opportunities for a "do-over"..Plan wisely, Grasshopper.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc...icially%20Over

The RJ Era: Officially Over
The Next Phase: RJ Fleet Reductions

The president of Embraer last week indicated that the company is considering pulling-down production of its regional jet line in 2006. This comes just weeks after Bombardier's decision to cease production of its own 50-seat model. Embraer in the meantime is up to its vertical stabilizer in orders for its E-170/190 platform of airliners.

This isn't what the aviation analyst cognoscenti predicted not too many months ago. But it was no surprise to clients of The Boyd Group...

"... after 2004, the demand for net new regional jet units may not be sufficient to support the current RJ manufacturers... "
- The Boyd Group Global Fleet Forecast, June, 2000

Questioning The Sacred "Consensus." We mention this simply because up until very recently, our fleet forecast for RJs has earned us some sneers from the all-knowing sectors of the aviation media, who were busy trying to out-do one another with sunshine stories on the glorious future of the "regional jet."

Not to mention the snickers from other analysts. This is because our forecasts ran counter to the ones being put out by the giant "Global Advisory, Strategic-Thought-Process, Analytical-Braintrust, MBA-Supported" consulting cabals. "Everybody knows," has been the accepted wisdom, "that regional jets are the wave of the future...It's the consensus..."

Now that it's happened, the same analysts and some in the aviation media who snickered at our forecasts are suddenly "predicting" and announcing the demise of 50-seaters. Safe timing, y'all.

But the fact remains that it's a trend that the staff at The Boyd Group identified for our forecast clients over five years ago.

What's Next: Can You Say, Mojave, Boys And Girls? As we outlined in the fleet forecast session at our Annual Conference in Savannah last month, the prognosis for RJ-series airliners in US service is not very good.

We forecast that as many as 200 of these airliners will be excess to market needs in the next 18-24 months. For the financial entities holding paper on these things, prepare for a haircut. There isn't much potential - anywhere in the world - for an RJ after-market, short of a Bud Light promotion.

The number of RJs in operation will continue to decline at some rate going forward. How much will be determined by a range of factors, including fuel prices, mega-carrier strategies, yield trends, and competitive issues. One thing is certain, however. The 1,500+ RJs in the US fleet is now at least 200 too many, and it's entirely possible that additional double-digit declines in the number in service could be seen in the next three years.

The Delta system in particular appears to be way over-invested in RJ deals. Tossing cost-plus RJs into off-hub, point-to-point missions to destinations in Florida where yields are lower than W's approval rating, looks like an expensive way of maintaining market share.

Finally, using RJs on routes competitive with carriers operating mainline-cabin equipment, such as 737s or even E-170s, makes passengers get real itchy to take another airline. This was one of the major problems with Delta's now-gone DFW hub - it became RJ-centric and non-competitive.

SJP Future: Expand Upward. There will also be a shake-out in the number of companies that operate RJs. Two Small Jet Providers - Mesa and Skywest - appear to be bullet-proof for the foreseeable future. Skywest, because it has the pole position for last-man standing in the Delta SJP network. Mesa, simply because it has its RJ eggs in a number of baskets, and has management that understands the future context of the airline industry. But after these two, it's a declining scale of who's going to survive and who might not.

Forecasting Is Risky. So's Life. To be sure, the firms for which we do forecasting - airports, OEMs, aircraft manufacturers, powerplant manufacturers, financial institutions, and suppliers - have learned that our data sometimes doesn't paint a rosy picture.

But we're a whole lot more accurate than "following the consensus."

Which pretty much describes what lemmings do when they run off a cliff.

 

777-ADIRU, I understand your frustration over the Eagle RJ flying. What if management can't make money flying 138-seat 737s/MD80s on those routes? Maybe that's why they're using 50-seat RJs? I know it sucks, but hey! You're still working and flying 777s, right? No fear of ERJ-145s replacing your DFW-London/Paris/Frankfurt runs, right? Using RJs for so much narrow-body short-haul flying is going to get expensive, and I'm sure those routes will be back to mainline jets someday. But for now, Eagle RJs are maintaining AA's market presence on those routes, still earning revenue for AMR Corp and not giving away market share to competitors (like they did in STL).

'Management Accountability', well, I agree. Why so scared of Pref Bidding? Ever tried it? Thought so. Ever seen it work? Again, thought so. Until you've seen it, understand it and actually USE it, don't condemn it as a failure or bad-mouth it. It's a good thing , for both sides.

Lastly, you say 5% of your list are TWA pilots. Well, TWA had 2400 pilots when it was acquired by AA. Now, there are less than 500, some of which have held on to protected Captain slots in STL. Does this obvious inequity and unprofessional wholesale slaughter and whitewash give you heartburn? I'm sure you're perspective is :"Hey, those Captain slots are ours, not acquired TWA hires!" I'm sure it is'nt "God, they had 2400 pilots, and now only have 500." My, how our viewpoints differ. Yoyr junior,new-hire pilots should count their lucky stars; they would've certainly been furloughed post 9-11 without the TWA buyout.

As far as 'stoking that anger' or 'moving on', I have. I have 20 years to go in this business, or perhaps longer if age 65 comes, so it will be awhile before I retire. But hey, do I even come close to sounding as angry or disgruntled as you? YOU'RE the one who kept his job, not me. Who really has the right to be 'angry'?

 

I give up with this guy.

I'm arguing economics, and he wants to keep pointing out the hair shirt he's wearing while making arguments that say essentially."yeah the company needs to keep doing dumb money-losing things and you should be happy to finance it...for Market Share?" Are you in management? That's where I usually hear such incompetent twisted reasoning such as this...what a goombah. Did I say PBS was bad? Re-read the post...I stated a PBS in the hands of AMR would be bad. Do you understand context? Also, I guess you LIKE the ideas of more furloughs, cause that's what PBS will do...create about another 5-10% overage at AA.

Didn't see you retract your comments about your total misconception on the 757/767 flying. This reminds me of the old management ploy of ignoring your mistakes while pointing out everyone else's...I really AM getting the feeling you're either in management..or...maybe you're a character in Dilbert?

Anyways, I applaud you going for the sympathy vote...(My life was sooooo good at my thrice-bankrupt company where the future was rosy and I was a rising star before evil ole' AA/APA/______ came knockin' and kicked me outta my rockin' chair!) Sidebar-Will someone, somewhere please be responsible and honest enough to admit they are liable for the career choices they made, the employers they chose, and the consequences that resulted?

Since to you, we AA types seem so evil, and it appears you cannot post on this website (over and over and over again) without pointing out how badly you "feel" you got screwed over by "us", do "us" a favor: Refuse the recall notice, if one ever comes your way.

No one would want you to get yer hands dirty, force you associate with folks not at your level or compromise your principles, doncha' know.

'Course then again, I'm sure you have already submitted your resignation letter.

On a positive note I can now say after this discourse I much better understand the retort in the old joke about the guy pounding his head on the brick wall who was asked "why in the world are you doing that?"

"Because it feels so good when I stop" he replied....

 

Now that we all agree that the problem lies with our evil management, can we stop playing their game and think of a way to get rid of these bastards.

Imagine the pilot groups of AA, AE, ex-TWA as a united force opposing management.

We have enough numbers to be some country's air force but are afraid to take it up with these clows.