delay in upgrade times permananent?
 

A little surprised this one hasn't been thrown around yet. Everyone keeps talking about lengthier upgrades as a result of age 65. What are people's thoughts on whether or not this is permanent? My initial thoughts are that the airlines will slow hiring to the point that someone hired 5 years from now would've originally been hired one year from now and those folks upgrade times will be more similar to times before age 65. I know there are a lot of variables involved in determining upgrade times, just wondering what people's thoughts are on long term age 65 impacts alone. I posted a separate reply on the military forum for those guys sitting on the fence re: separating/retiring.

I don't think that will be the case at all. Most guys Medical out at CAL from Diabetes I think,at least thats what one of their CA's told me. I imagine all airlines have some senior guys who have some health issues . Obviously hiring will slow as well as upgrades but to what point?, I don't think anyone knows. I think management will slow down the hiring until they can figure out what the attrition will look like. I am sure they would rather be short-staffed then over-staffed, so I think it will take a year or so and they will have a better idea, probably more like 6 months, summer might be interesting.

The answer to your question will depend on whether the projected hiring will be based on real growth or based on attrition. If the major airlines go through real expansion and growth, the upgrade time may even come down. If the hiring is mainly due to attrition, then that's bad news for all of us. We'll have to wait and see.

I suspect many senior CAs will medical out right at 60, asn an example for NWA, a senior CA told me there are over 35 senior CAs based out of DTW on medical leave right now and they are not even 59 years old.

My understanding is that NWA senior Captains still have a retirement program..so my guess is that if they get it at 60 they'll get out. I know I would.

I tend to agree with SAAB.... 6-9 months for things to show their hand then I think a better discussion can be had on this subject. Even at that... MOST carriers had more projected hiring than the number of retirements that were expected. Slow down some..... probably.... delay everything 5 years....probably not.

First, let me say that I'm one of the younger (not young) pilots who didn't want the age 65 legislation to pass, but now that it's here, why can't we just accept it and all the changes that will come with it. As far as upgrade time goes, there are lots of variables, but however long the delay is for your upgrade due to guys staying beyond 60, you will now have up to 5 extra years to serve or become Captain (which you didn't have before). I am fairly confident that I'm part of the majority who aren't looking forward to going beyond 60 or even up to that age, but again it is now a law, so let's learn to work with and support our gramps remaining in the industry.

The key to dealing with the age 65 issue is to mediacal out whenever you can. Take the LTD then do something on the side. Jump through whatever hoops they need you to but after that just enjoy the money while doing something else. Don't go out of way screaming for waivers or anything else. Just do what the Dr says and cash the freakin check each month. Let ALPA deal with it when this industry continues to go backwards.

It's a direct effect. Each and every day a pilot over 60 works there will be no need to promote an under 60 pilot for that position. Whether it's 2 years or 5. Growth or attrition based advancement.

Note: I was for 65. Still, it ain't happen in a vacuum.

CPT,

That attitude is pathetic! Who do you think pays for LTD fraud? I have a long time "friend" who tried what you suggest and fortunately for him he didn't fool anyone. I say fortunately because he had many people watching him and he would'nt have been able to "just cash the check." If your suggestion was not meant to imply fraud please accept my apology in advance. Otherwise, please explain what you were implying.:cool:

If you are able to get a "waiver or anything else" it is the right thing to do. Cashing the check and doing something on the side when a waiver is possible is FRAUD! I am amazed and frankly can't believe what we are teaching our children about what is right and wrong.:eek:

Considered alone, it will have the potential to slow hiring for up to a 5-yr period (other factors will have longer impacts). Think of it as a 5-gal bucket of water, if you continue to pour 1-gal/hour into a full bucket, 1-gal/hr will spill out. If you suddenly increase the capacity to 10-gal, the outflow is affected until the 10-gal point is reached, then the outflow will resume at 1-gal/hr again. It isn't an exact analogy since you are actually drawing pilots from the bucket and replacing them with new pilots, but you did stop the potential outflow for 5-yrs (although there will not be 100% takers).