Aerospacepilot,

I obviously don't know the answers to this one. I didn't know anything about Peak Oil until after becoming an airline pilot. Then I started asking the hard questions about pay, quality of life, etc. and what the driving force behind these things were...then I happened across an article in Airways Magazine entitled Peak Oil: The Collapse of Commercial Aviation. The article was scary to read and difficult to swallow, however, almost everything the article predicted has occurred thus far...hence my fascination w/ Peal Oil.

I think alternative energy is great. I salute every single person who is involved it its development. With that said, virtually every single alternative energy that I've explored is just too energy intensive to serve as a meaningful replacement for the fossil fuels.

So, the way I see it, use your knowledge of Peak Oil as a means of adapting. You'll have a better perspective on the changes to come and will be better prepared for those changes. Heck, there may be opportunities out there to prosper financially from Peak Oil. It's not the end of the world, but it is the end of the world as we know it. I'm grateful for the opportunites I've received and I try to keep a keen eye on the future to come. In the mean time, hopefully someone a whole lot smarter than I am will come up w/ an energy resource that revolutionizes how the world is powered. It's possible, but a long-shot at best.

 

Production costs for old wells have remained fairly flat, bringing in new discoveries is far more expensive usually because they are deeper, under water, or under ice in isolated areas.
The demand is driving prices up and production has not kept pace.

If we were to switch to an all electric economy next week, it is quite safe to assume the price of electricity would climb rather steeply.

 

Yes, it is significantly more expensive. There is only one large scale producer of deep water oil rigs. National Oilwell Varco. Go look at their backlog. If you want a new deep water oilrig, you are going to have to wait at least two or three years. The ones already built are on contract. Transocean is the biggest player in offshore drilling. Go look at the websites and quarterly reports, it is not a pretty picture if you want costs to come down. Land rigs are a little more available depending on the location. Halliburton and Schlumberger are the biggest players in oil service.

 

Hi!

ANWAR has ONE YEAR's worth of US oil consumption, if we take all of it.

The Canadian Tar Sands would use ALL of the natural gas in North America to convert them to oil, with current production methods.

Another item on high production costs/difficulties of oil production: LABOR!
-The engineers that find the oil are retiring, and they can't find enough new ones.
-The workers that build the oil rigs are retiring, and they can't find enough new ones.
-The workers that operate/maintain the oil rigs are retiring, and they can't find enough new ones.
-The workers that operate/maintain the oil refineries are retiring, and they can't find enough new ones.

China, and India.

All of the above, combined with the peaking of oil in various countries, INCLUDING Saudi Arabia, means that deman, RIGHT NOW, TODAY, is outpacing supply.

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy, wild ride!

cliff
YIP

 

No, just no.

If suddenly everybody has another significant energy consuming device attached to the power grid, it's not gonna be cheap anymore.

Plus where does the electricity come from?

 

Why not release some of the oil from our Strategic Reserve and flood the supply side of the market ?

Secondly, it was mentioned that the legacy carriers should just raise fares to compensate for rising oil prices. I agree 110%.

However, the other day, I saw an ad on TV:

Wanna Get Away ?
Los Angeles to any Bay Area airport $39 each way.

...and it wasn't Skybus or Virgin America.

I'd be curious after $100/bbl, what the next resistence level is in terms of price.

FF

 

Nice Democrat talking point.

Still don't see why that means we shouldn't drill there. When was the last time you hiked there?

 

For a good overall perspective on oil and shale reserves: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

There is plenty of oil out there, but that isn't going to make it cheaper.

 

For those of you who want to learn more about Peak Oil, go to www.financialsense.com and find the webcast portion of the website and listen to Jim Puplava discuss these issues along with others over the past couple of years as this issue has brewed. He's had the authors of several peak oil books on during the past several months, and those webcasts are in the archives.

Jim has a very good investment advice record, he advised to buy gold starting back in 2005, predicted last year's spike in oil, and warned of the sub prime debacle coming early last spring. He runs a private investment firm in San Diego for high net worth clients, PFS Group, and in 2006 his reccomended portfolio was up 20% in a very mediocre year for the markets.

His econimic warnings for late 2009-2010 are not good, and if you listen to the webcasts you better brace yourselves.

Duke is right, better prepare yourselves, because "there's a storm coming"...JP

 

I like wikipedia, but hell I can post information on that site. I agree there is a lot of oil out there, but at the pace we are using it you eventually out pace the production. I'm not saying it is today or tomorrow, but it will eventually happen.