RedeyeAV8r

For the Pilots who have been around the block more than a few times.

Do you remember the "Regulated" Industry in 1973 when the 1st Oil shock occured and Gas prices doubled to .50 cents a gallon? We had to drive around town to find a gas station that had gas and wait in line for an hour. Many of the Legacy Airlines (the largest of which didn't have more than 2000 Pilots) furloughed. The economy was terrible, the Vietnam war had torn the country apart. It was the end of the world.

In 1979 after deregulation, the second Oil shock occured. (you remember, deregulation was going to save the industry by offering competition). The 3 Mile Island nuclear accident scared everyone.
Oil spikes to new levels and Gas went to 75 cents a gallon. We saw double digit inflation and Mortgage and interest rates were 14%. TWA, American, United, Western and Pan Am all had Pilots on Furlough. Many smaller start up Airlines failed. Everyone traded in their BIG American gas guzzling cars for gas stingy Japanese imports. It is a BIG Election Year. It was the end of the world, sound familiar?

1991 Sadam invaded Kuwait and Oil spiked again because of Fear.
USair, NWA, AA, Continental furlughed.

2001 9/11 and Sars Airlines Furloughed the economy slowed.

2008. Oil spikes to new record levels, the Economy sinks. Everyone is trading in the BIG Gas guzzlers for Japanese Imports, although now many are Built in China and Mexico as well as the US. Many Airlines are Furloughling. The Iraq War has divided the country. It is a BIG election Year. It is once again the End of the World.

We are in terrible economic times. Everyone is in fear of their jobs. The future seems uncertain, but if you believe that history repeats itself and look back over 35 years., the more things change the more similar they look.
Things will get better, but the road will be bumpy for a while longer.

DYNASTY HVY

History repeating itself ! Can,t wait till the equivalent of the 80,s returns







Just riding on that mystery ship.

CaptainCarl

Otto's right. No one is going to get in their car and drive from LAX to JFK. Aviation will survive.

Don't listen to the news, its all doom and gloom, end of the world type ****.

Hang in there, things will look up eventually. Its just gonna take a minute or two.

tomgoodman

I agree with Redeye. Obtaining and keeping a high-paying airline job has always been a long shot. The difference today is that plenty of low-paying airline jobs have been added to the profession, leading to lots of disgruntled pilots instead of disappointed non-pilots. It seems worse now because those who missed the brass ring in the past would simply disappear into another career field and not post on pilot forums (except for Skyhigh, who has been a voice crying in the wilderness). The wheel of fortune will spin upward again, but no one knows when, how fast, or for how long. Those of us who have seen previous cycles may be especially bad forecasters, but after the fact we'll provide a very good analysis of what happened.

dojetdriver

Both good points. But in addition to having these, you will also have be equipped with a certain mind set.

This goes along with the timing thing. But don't get into the career thinking yours will be all roses composed of stellar progression, high pay, and the best QOL with little, if any backward movement. There have been guys get into this job and had great careers, while others got in at the SAME time and didn't have such great careers.

If you can accept the FACT that your career might suck, and suck big time at some point or another, you will be less disgruntled when it happens and be able to roll with punches better. Doesn't mean you like it when it happens, just be prepared for it. If you've got the back up plan, great.

It's a fun job, but can be a crappy career.

MJB68

I'd recommend you forego flying and get into airline management. Why you ask? Well, in that line of work it won't matter how well you do your job, and when you really screw things up, you can just take your golden parachute and move to another company. No, I'm not cynical. I second dojetdriver..."It's a fun job, but can be a crappy career"

flybynuts

[quote=DYNASTY HVY;424672]History repeating itself ! Can,t wait till the equivalent of the 80,s returns







Me too so I can wear my Members only jacket and parachute pants again!

Riddler

Commercial aviation will continue to change, just like it always has. Going from props to jets, from 3 man to 2 man crews, 10 year upgrade from working the panel to FO, regulated to deregulated, and so forth.

However, once labor makes concessions, don't plan on ever getting them back. A-funds are gone for good. B funds and 401(k)s are here now, but you can't guarantee that airline X will contribute towards them in 10 years.

I think the main difference now (other than fuel) is that there's an overabundance of people who are (1) qualified to enter the career field, and (2) more than willing to start out at horrible wages in hopes of someday getting to Captain's pay. The problem is that they might never get there.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't be a pilot. However, you should get a good education and always have something to fall back on. Don't plan on making it rich in the airline industry.

RedeyeAV8r

You mean "B" scale pay?

chazbird

It would be interesting if someone would do a objective comparison of the "cycles" of the airline industry in the last 40 or so years. That is, if you accept that a cycle has peaks and valleys, are the valleys getting deeper and occurring with greater frequency and duration and the peaks occurring less often, and for shorter durations, and are becoming less lofty? Super conditions such as United Airlines short lived golden contract didn't last very long. And post 9-11 recovery was very short indeed. Regarding the so-called golden era of the 80's, well, things kind of weren't so good until the mid 80's. And then the rising peak was eroded a bit by the infamous B scale. No, not every one experienced that, but I think it set many precedents, although it was a concept that was manifest over the years in different ways.