There sure was a lot of fan fare when oil was marching up at nearly a dollar day. There was one guy on here who kept chirping about oil being $200/barrel by year end. Heck there was even a poll regarding that very issue! So now that oil has pulled back nearly $50/barrel there's not even a word from anyone? Shouldn't we be celebrating that the price of oil has apparantly collapsed?

To all the guys who predicted $200+/barrel oil what is your theory now? Anyone think we'll be at $80/barrel by year end? $60? $50.....?

S.B.

 

Not with OPEC! or hurricanes a' coming!

 

Oil continued to drop during and after Gustav. I think it's at a point where even hurricanes can't keep the price artifically inflated like it has been.

 

It will retreat to unrealisticly low prices then settle at the mid $80's, its natural level.

Just like the tech bubble, real estate bubble, now petro. Unfortunately, a lot of damage has been done.

Just remember to keep voting in these free market, supply side politicians that your boss wants in office.

 

Whats the use of jumping up and down when the damage is already done???

 

The Venezuelans don't want it below $100 a barrel and OPEC has a floor of $80 as "the red line for action"

OPEC in Vienna _ a call for production cuts

 

Time to hedge.

 

The Saudi's who are the major player in opec left the meeting which is a sign that opec could fall apart. Saudis say they will keep production up and won't leave anyone without oil. On a side note another discover off the coast of Brazil claims to be one of it not the biggest oil reserve yet.

 

We only have a problem if the Saudi's cut production.....the other jokers can say whatever they want...the Saudi's are the big dogs over there.

 

Personally I think it has a lot to do with exchange rates. Why? Because oil is delineated in US Dollars. Which means if you want to buy or sell oil you have to change your Euros, Pounds and Yen into USD. When the dollar weakens, you get fewer of them in the exchange. Which means you get less oil for the same money. The corollary is you can demand more dollars for the same oil.

In September of 2007 it took 1.25 Euros to buy 1.00 USD (in 2002 it was near parity). By July of 2008 you needed to plunk down nearly 40% more Euros to buy the same dollar (1.67 euros to 1.00 USD), hence you had to demand more dollars to buy the same amount of oil you were purchasing in September of 2007.

Since then the Euro has fallen to 1.39 and oil has followed in lock step with the decline. If the rest of the world has to lower interest rates to combat a weakening global economy, the dollar should strengthen. I see oil back to $80 by next year. JMHO.