ewrbasedpilot

It wasn't long ago that many on this forum were saying oil at $200 a bbl was here to stay, that many of us "just didn't get it", and that speculation had nothing to do with sky high oil prices. We were "informed" that "supply and demand" was the only driving force and that we'd just better get used to it. Well, what happened? It seems the "experts" have been awfully quiet while oil tumbled. Today it was down to $36.22! Seems like a few of the "experts" on this forum weren't quite as smart as they thought they were.

FR8K9

Hey congrats. I hear your company hedged at $140.

skidmark

In a few months it could easily be back at $150 a barrel. Enjoy it while it lasts.

ewrbasedpilot

Thanks............I'm sure your company has never screwed up, has it?
And we didn't hedge that much at $140 either....

JetPiedmont

Yeah, at least our rampant board speculation didn't cost anyone any real money!

And I do agree it could be back at $200/bbl within a year.

ewrbasedpilot

I don't think it will since it'd create such a massive depression that every government would step in and prevent it from happening. I believe the high price of oil is what started this whole financial house of cards tumbling. When gas shot up so high, people had to make a choice.....go to work and buy gas, or pay on their mortgage. Unfortunately, eating is a byproduct of living and you have to make money to buy food, so not working wasn't much of an option, but delaying a house/car/loan payment seemed the thing to do. The rest is history. So, in short, oil at $150 a bbl? I don't think it'll be happening too soon. At least I certainly hope it doesn't start back up. We (our country) certainly can't afford for it to. I do find it interesting that jet fuel is still at a 50% PREMIUM to regular fuel. Gulf coast jet fuel was at $52 a bbl today while crude was at $36. I guess gouging the airlines is "okay"...............

nfnsquared

I'm wondering if the SEC/FBI, etc. has had a chilling effect on artificial inflation in the oil futures and this is responsible for some of the drop?

FR8K9

That's the rumor.

QCappy

Well. Demand dropped like a rock, so supply rose quickly. This prompted the price of oil do plummet. In turn, suppliers have been reducing the output of oil. However, demand has been falling faster than the supply cuts. So....I guess it does have to do with supply and demand.

JetPiedmont

The problem is that as soon as the global economy begins to improve, the demand for oil will go up, and so will the price pressure. When that happens, the speculators will arrive in force, and magnify the upward move just like they did before.

The time to change the way these commodities are traded is NOW, before the economies begin to recover, and spare the world the inflationary explosion that will result.