Bankruptcy is a real possibility for USAirways and it is surprising none of the east pilots understand what is going on around them. From what it seems here, there is no recognition at all of an impending bankruptcy as speculated by many analysts, and the evasion of their seniority arbitration seems to be immortal (in their minds). When your revenue is down 21% yoy there aren't many quarters you can keep this up, and LCC's cash is getting low. I bet they are chapter 11 by December with a bankruptcy judge combining the pilot group- the one remaining part of a merger announced four years ago- by the early spring. Forget contract ratification and all of the silly arguments about ALPA vs. USAPA. If you are a USAirways pilot, two events are on the horizon: pay cuts and Nicolau seniority.

In fact I have a video below of three America West pilots trying to take something from an Australian pilot, his flying experience and job.

YouTube - Is That a Knife

The Judge has already said he will not impose extra costs on the company or force a contract. What this order says is that USAPA has the legal obligation to negotiate in good faith, something that can, I'm sure, be subject to further litigation.

You mention the infamous LOA 93. The brilliant strategists at US Air (East) did not negotiate a snapback for LOA 93. The company is on record that there will be no snapback, thus no pay raise for the East. The Flight attendents for the East did get a snapback - the pilots did not put ironclad langauge in their LOA.

I actually hope that the East would get their snapback, it will raise the bar for an eventual contract (sometime before the next iceage I guess - and I'm not talking about the Pixar cartoon). There will have to be much weeping and wailing before we ever get to a real contract, I expect that will commence next spring - provided there still is a US Airways around.

I believe there is a third possibility. US Airways is sold in pieces - the Shuttle, the West operation and the East operation. Parker wants consolidation and he wants to bring shareholders some cash. Look at all the Wall Street raiders - they split a struggling company in pieces to get the most out of the deal.

Now I have to mail my info (facts) to a target audience. Good day sir.

That is exactly what is being considered by the industry powers. Last that I heard, The east and shuttle operations were going to be sold to American, and the west op is going to Mesa who wants to get a leg up on Republic. Enjoy working for JO boys. Y'all are perfect for each other :D

Kind of an unlikely scenario, in my opinion. First, I don't see Mesa as having the financial wherewithal to absorb another airline (or part of one). Second, I don't believe AMR would want to part with any precious cash in order to acquire assets of dubious value. The shuttle (either USAir's or Delta's) is not worth what it once was, given the meltdown on Wall Street.

The name of the game now is cash preservation. Both Mesa and AMR have limited cash to play with, and are busy enough trying to manage their companies through the current economy. Even a cash-free deal would cost too much.

I don't think AMR is too interested in inheriting the east pilots. Considering their actions so far, any seniority merge over at AA would just start a new disaster in a new place. Not even close to being worth the trouble.

Now ASSETS of the east operation, maybe, but not employees.

It seems perhaps the most likely outcome (if UAL doesn't flop first), is a fire sale at U. Many carriers would be interested in various assets and then they can hire (read choose) who they want employee wise, but first bring back any furloughed employees that carrier may have.

Maybe mergers are the "old" way of doing things and asset acquisition will be the way of the future and the industries preferred method of consolidation.

I never really considered it before, but I guess APA would have a pretty big issue with acquiring assets and pilots, while they have guys on furlough.

Regardless, I think AMR is going to work with the assets they have, rather than go on a buying spree.

Crap. I am now convinced that the end is near... I find myself agreeing with eaglefly... Seriously, though, I think you're right -- why enter into a mess of a merger (especially with the new merger laws in place) when you can buy pieces. It makes no sense from a management perspective... Douggie isn't stupid (he may be an impulsive fool, but he isn't dumb). If he allows the airline to continue to fall apart (not just the pilots, but the F/A's are having issues, the customer complaints are high, etc), he won't even have to take the hammer to US. It will break apart itself... He stands to make a lot of money selling it off in pieces (a lot more than a sale to a single buyer).

As for bankruptcy by winter or spring, where do you guys come up with this stuff? Do you just pick arbitrary numbers and dates? There is nothing that points to impending doom. At the present rate they're losing money, US can last another 18-24 months before even being in danger of liquidation (note, I said at present rate of loss). Most non-airline analysts are predicting the beginning of an economic recovery by this Fall or next Spring. That would stretch out US (and UAL for that matter)'s life for a while longer.

And, as for the guys that think Parker will take US in Ch 11 just to get a pilot contract, give me a break. The dangers (and downsides) to a BK filing are pretty severe (as in will they even emerge, what effect will there be on current shareholders -- of which he is one, etc...). If US goes into BK, it will be a while from now and it will be because they are facing destruction -- not just for a contract...

As for whoever asked about the post-merger new hires, yes there are a few of us (although finally, none are left on property). And, I can tell you from my own opinions and those of my buddies hired/ furloughed me, most of us are pretty neutral. As a whole we supported ALPA in the vote (east or west), didn't listen to most of the ramblings in the cockpit, support the Nic (if for no other reason that final and binding should mean final and binding...), but we also understand where the East guys are coming from. They are angry and beaten down. They are frustrated at how they are treated and how their careers have turned out. But, being sympathetic does not we agree with them in trampling the West guys to try and make up for things. I would say that we are just neutral in the whole thing. (Besides, who knows if we will ever get recalled...)