Airline Pilot Central Forums - SWA toast in 2009 ?

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- - SWA toast in 2009 ? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/4592-swa-toast-2009-a.html)

Anyone notice how many times airlines have raised airfares by $5-10 each way this year? Well guess what...its gonna keep happening, I can see airfares going up an average of 5-7% in the next year, as oil should drop below $60 per barrel!

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Originally Posted by hatetobreakit2u

oil will come down after bush is gone

This is so not true

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Originally Posted by C175

This is so not true

I don't think hatetobreakit has any factual evidence to support his theory.

Bush isn't the reason oil is becoming more expensive. Perhaps a 5% reason, and it's not even Bush. It's the US Administration's foriegn affairs that has set a slight premium on oil. Along with the fact that many oil producing countries have reached peak productions already, and it will only platuea and eventually production levels will decrease over the next few decades.

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Originally Posted by Baburang

How do you figure oil will drop below $60 a barrel?

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Originally Posted by 1800 RVR

Obviously, I don't work for SWA, but why do people think that they are not competing just because they have fuel hedges? They have great forward-looking folks oin their finance dept. and the cash to backup buying hedges. SWA has ALWAYS had low fares. That won't change in any big way in the future, I believe. It's the productivity of the workers, good debt management, and sound business policies that make them successful. Their pilots get paid well, and the harder you work, the more money you make. IT IS YOUR OWN CHOICE! If you want to fly your sked then go home, so be it. If you want to pick up open time, then great. No one is forced to work overtime.

Legacies got in trouble with debt and management that gave themselves huge bonuses for many years before 9-11. Then, when labor got a taste of the money in new contracts, and things started to go sour in the economy, labor is the first to get screwed. Did anyone see management saying that they will forgo their hefty bonuses first? I think not. SWA isn't organized like that. Everyone knows that they value their employees. And because of that, employees reciprocate by working hard. Novel concept, huh?

I just tire of these stupid threads of "What will SWA do when they have to compete?"

Good Post.

SWA has proven time and time again they are in this business for the long-haul and not for a quick jump in the stock price. The fact that their management actually tells unruly passengers to "hit the road" and not to come back when abusing employees shows that they have a high regard for the worker bees.

Excellent Management Team says it all.

oil spiked in the 70's 80's and its doing it again. the president of venezuala or some south american country hates bush and said something along the lines of "we opec need to stick together and keep the price of a barrel no less than $50"
that shows you that the oil industry is a bunch of bull**** and hearsay is all it takes to raise the price. in a few years once the world cools off and we have some better leaders that no how to make friends with underdeveloped country's the price will come down,
then southwest will hedge some more to prepare for the next oil crisis in 2016

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Originally Posted by hatetobreakit2u

I hope you're right. But knowing the facts of the current "crisis," I doubt it.

Here is something that blew me away when I saw it. Look at the 2002 cost of oil. $19/barrel

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Originally Posted by Gman

What will happen after fuel hedges expire and the airline has to compete with all the other ones who have now lowered their costs?

Why do so many people assume that fuel hedging is SWA's only cost advantage? SWA's management (and other employees) work hard to create new operational efficiencies and improve proven ones. I'm guessing that much of this has to do with SWA organizational culture.

And is cost alone SWA's only operational advantage? Of course not! SWA still ranks #2 in ontime performance and has fewer consumer complaints than any US airline (see Air Transport World, June 06). SWA consistently gets the job done with efficiency and quality, as measured by industry benchmarks. SWA's great people will likely shine as bright in the future as they have in the past.

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Originally Posted by Uncle Bose

Right...also, when Bush is gone there will be no more hurricanes, and all species on the endangered list will make a comeback.

Hahaha...well said! :D

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Originally Posted by waflyboy

Most people here seem to think that fuel hedges are the reason why SWA has been successful, especially in these days. I would suggest many are not seeing the proverbial “big picture”.

SWA’s fuel hedges are but a tool. Their real success is their management, which remains focused on running an efficient airline.

SWA “toast” in 2009? Don’t make me laugh!

I’m not and have never been a SWA employee. They seem to have a valuable culture over there and that’s something virtually all airlines don’t have, especially the one I used to work for.