Legacy Airline Pilot Retirements Statistics
 

Does anyone have a graph or spreadsheet showing the exact number of retirements that will take place over the next 10 years at legacy carriers?

Looking for factual numbers. Specifically, each airline, total number of pilots - for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, etc Thanks.

There have been threads on this in the past for most of the major airlines. Do a search on the word "retirement".

not sure bout the format your looking for but if you do a search there are threads with all the carriers you could imagine.

Southwest has 264 pilots who are 60 years of age or older.

DAL retirements really kick in a few years. We will be looking at 800+ retirements a year for over five years with the years surrounding them at 500+

I will literally go from 60% to top 15% in seven years.

Retirement by year at the combined DAL:

2009 7
2010 7
2011 9
2012 20
2013 120
2014 203
2015 273
2016 326
2017 379
2018 472
2019 560
2020 652
2021 831
2022 877
2023 832
2024 821
2025 732
2026 632
2027 530
2028 507
2029 506
2030 540
2031 473
2032 396
2033 318
2034 236
2035 173
2036 165
2037 132
2038 106
2039 87
2040 85
2041 71
2042 66
2043 48
2044 31
2045 27
2046 10
2047 4
2048 1

Acl
 

Hey ACL,
Looking at your retirement projections, it appears 43 folks will retire thru 2012. If my math is correct, these folks had to have been 60+ at the age change , unless they had a Dec07 birthday.

Were all of these folks in a 747 s/o position ala FedEx and UPS ?

Did some/all of them move up to a window seat on the last MOAB's ?

Just curious.....

Most were 60+ and in the side saddle.

trust me these numbers are dead on.

There certainly won't be a pilot shortage, however anyone that has high qualifications is going to sucked up by the majors pretty quick. Age 65 sucks!!!

I know last time, DAL was running out of ppl they really wanted to interview. We will see how long that lasts this time.

Must be why they hired me then!!

I know why they hired you! More qualified than most ppl.

I think it is somewhat foolish to think that pilots will actually be retiring at 65.

The truth is most of retirements will take place at 62-63.
As soon as the market starts recovering and mutual funds climbing, I think, we will see people calling it done.
The other side of the medal is medicals. Before age 65 change 20% of pilots ages 57-60 were losing medicals.

Agreed. This is worst case based upon age 65.

How many people were suppose to retire from 2001-2006? How many people did the major airlines hire during that period?


How many people were suppose to retire from 2008-2012? How many people are major airlines hiring during this period?


There is an obvious trend here.

I personally don't think these numbers tell you anything.

They tell you worst case. Do not forget that you do not have a DB at DAL. That means ppl are no longer tied to years of service to retire nor a set age. They can go when they want to.

True, but they also now likely need to (or at least feel as if they should) keep working longer to make up for the lost $$.

Man a 27 year old at DAL. That guy got hired when he was what, 25? Pretty nice work on his part.

or good timing on the economy, I am 23 and starting to get turbine time, I could do it as well if the economy BOOMED, and everyone retired, could happen in the next few years, but prol not, imagine I went to the regionals though off the bad, like alot of people have.....

I suspect major airline hiring will go pretty young and inexperienced again. This is because the senior guys at regionals make too much money to make the move. Here at mesaba, our top wage earners have made over $120K the top is almost $150K. These guys are in their forties and fifties and are staying put.

FWIW, I was a Capt at the regionals at 23. It does not matter. What matters is if you have 500 PICT and a contact at DAL or 1000 PICT and a contact somewhere else that is willing to walk you stuff in to get you to the top of the stack.

Get the time, but network like crazy. Timing is everything. I did not network enough in the late 90's and it cost me a job at DAL for many years.

I was a lear captain at 23 and that was during very robust times. Hired at some great companies and a legacy etc etc. Now almost 40 3rd 121 looking at a furlough and homeless. There are pilots from my generation who did not get turbine time till almost 7 years after I was a lear captain and now they are average seniority captains at SWA. Go figure......LUCK is what counts,,,not even timing......!!!!!!!!!

BINGO!! This industry is dumb luck.

We could change that, but no one seems willing to try... :confused:

I know!:mad::mad:

I cannot resist, how do you see fixing this? What is your solution?
Really, I want to know.

We need to find a system, any system, in which your seniority is portable. NO, I'm not talking about an NSL. Under one system I envision, you would accrue "points" based on your current position. Those points would be kept in a national database, and should you wish to transfer or if your company liquidates, you could use those points to determine your position on the list at a subsequent carrier.

You would still have to interview and be offered a job. You would still be on first year pay and have first year benefits (vacation, sick leave, pass privileges etc.). But for bidding purposes, your seniority would be whatever your points balance at the time of your transfer permits.

The net effect is pilots would not be the ONLY group with EVERYTHING to lose when the company gets in deep financial trouble. Because of that, management always takes advantage of us, and the senior half is more than willing to take a 32.5% paycut (just to pull a number out of the air - :mad:) rather than risk shutting the place down. The junior half is ALWAYS more willing to strike, because they've got less to lose.

Find a way to provide a safety net for all, and the whipsawing among pilot groups will reduce as well as the sledge hammer management has at contract time.

More details via PM if you want them.

American Airlines

1/13/2010 - 12/31/2010 0
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 0
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 5
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 137
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 205
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 266
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 251
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 284
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 358
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 456
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 546
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 607
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 659
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 708
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 722
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 736
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 707
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 587
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 496
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 474
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 410


Hired in my mid 20s, now in my later 30s.. Yes timing and LUCK have a lot to do with where we sit.

Cheers,

AAflyer

P.S.Like another poster said, these numbers are just numbers. We currently 300 pilots over 60. We could easily see 500-1000 guys bail if the market picked up and then started to decline. Potential BK would see even more guys bail (not saying we are there), guys retiring at 62-63, a messy merger.. Many things leave these numbers hard to commit to.

Hired at CAL when I was 30.

My dad was 30 when he got on at Hughes Air West in 1978. AMR, Braniff and Delta Turned him down. Never even considered flying at NW Orient. Never even applied...Retired Sep 07 from NWA and quite happy.

Words of wisdom to spread is that the folks from TN had a good thing going....Jack Daniels is the worlds finest whiskey. Enjoy in large amounts.:D

Good luck to all in the crap shoot. For those that have bad luck...the jack is on me.

Hired at NWA in 2008 at 27, alot of luck, timing and sacrifice

all of those DAL numbers assume age 65, fact is the majority of the near term retirements are from the NWA side. A lot of those guys still have a pension left along with military retirements. The majority wont stay much past 62 if they continue past 60 at all. The movement is coming and it will be alot sooner than most think. Also a bunch of our early out guys havent even been allowed to leave yet so those numbers dont account for that either.

The more the merrier!! ;)

Ual
 

The below figures are based on age 60. Just add 5 years to each year. BTW, was hired at 28 after 4 years in the regionals and 2 years as a freight dog. 100% networking.

2008 - 235
2009 - 231
2010 - 201
2011 - 167
2012 - 228
2013 - 246
2014 - 239
2015 - 271
2016 - 330
2017 - 305
2018 - 383
2019 - 356
2020 - 461
2021 - 508
2022 - 503
2023 - 574
2025 - 539
2026 - 561
2027 - 407

Alaska (1455 pilots)
 

Currently 50 guys over age 60.

2012 1
2013 18
2014 31
2015 36
2016 48
2017 46
2018 43
2019 49
2020 55
2021 57
2022 57
2023 50
2024 60
2025 57
2026 52
2027 77
2028 55
2029 76
2030 51
2031 58
2032 70
2033 56
2034 67
2035 63
2036 54
2037 39
2038 22
2039 26
2040 18
2041 26
2042 14
2043 10
2044 6
2045 4
2046 2
2047 1

wn:

Presently (14 Jan '10) 265 guys over 60

2010 19 (guys who took the early out "Freedom 09")
'11 0
'12 0
'12 3
'13 129
'14 107
'15 140
'16 160
'17 148
'18 105
'19 133
'20 149
'21 176
'22 266
'23 188
'24 221
'25 240
'26 272
'27 278
'28 250
'29 239
'30 222
'31 216
'32 209
'33 171
'34 186
'35 169
... tired of looking up the numbers, but you get the idea


PS aside from a few military retirees, most are staying to 65 (or so they admit)

After two years of the age 65 "deal" we have over 500 at Usair(East) over age 60 and the numbers are climbing daily.

UAL new and improved Ret. list
 

OK. I was bored and mined these numbers myself using the 2009 seniority list on Adobe. UAL currently has app. 453 pilots over age 60.

New and Improved UAL <MANDATORY> retirement list based on age 65

Dec 2012 11
2013 222
2014 220
2015 197
2016 165
2017 219 (1034)
2018 234
2019 231
2020 258
2021 319
2022 289 (2365)
2023 364
2024 337
2025 443
2026 483
2027 464 (4456)
2028 528
2029 519
2030 481
2031 496
2032 332 (6812)

There was an earlier post that alot of pilots would retire before they hit 65. That is an awful assumption. I would enjoy these fat old guys gone yesterday, but... The problem is pilots in general are greedy and the economy has tanked. At good ole SWA trailways many old timers said they would leave at age 61-62 years of age when the new rule kicked in, but they are still on property. Seniority rules.

Excluding SWA, the majors that still have some sort of pension left will have the most guys go out earlier than 65. Those that lost their pensions like Usair and UAL will likely stay till 65 imho. We'll see

And DAL (terminated) as well as NWA and CAL (frozen). The only one left with a pension is AMR!!

Pineapple guy has some ideas. Mine is more traditional, but the "haves" will always fight the "have-nots".
Of course I'm talking the age old national list idea. It got a LOT of debate back in the 80's/91 and was well represented in ALPA magazine..the pros and cons. The irony is, as I remember it, that it was usually opposed (by letters to the editor) by UAL, and Allegheny/USAir pilots. Of course TWA, PanAm, and Eastern guys were for it. It went nowhere, of course.
Teamsters head guy, as I understand it, has floated the idea, but has met the usual opposition, particularly from the legal division boys.
It would be a hard sell to airline management, but I have thought some sort of national list with the union taking over training and standardization might work. Many years ago the Merchant Marine had something like this(at least for the great lakes freighters). One was trained and qualified by the union agreements..then you shipped with "whomever". If Cleveland Cliffs screwed up, you took your years and quals to someone else, possibly without missing a beat.
If we could get over the egos and the management worries, I think we could do this. Or maybe some of Pineapple Guys ideas. What we have now is a travesty and harmful to the industry.
As an aside we lose quality pilots due to this. One of the better pilots I have flown with in my career finally said "enough" (after his most recent job loss) and is driving a truck. The airline industry is NOT better off without him. Very few were/are his level of expertise, skills and work ethic. However, due to our system of doing business, he is probably gone for good.
So it goes.

PG has an interesting concept.

based on the figures given for Delta, SWA, AMR, UAL and Alaska, %75 of the pilots at the previously mentioned carriers will be retired by 2030, pretty amazing.

in 20 years delta will lose 9500 pilots out of 12000 total