FWIW: I was told 18-24 months... it has been a little longer. There are guys that did upgrade that quick...

Si........ :D

Nice work Sniper, but I wanted to point out that in the bid from May, 2010, the junior 757/767 at Delta was someone 12 numbers from the bottom on the seniority list. So, almost anyone could of held a widebody position, if they wanted MSP.

I don't remember how the class assignements went to new hires this last round of hiring, but a new hire at Delta won't be stuck on the NB aircraft for very long.

Good job Sniper. However APC does not show the yearly stepping that Spirit has for the next 5 years. In reality who gets hired today will face the following FO pay rates (actually slightly better than that but that is too much detail):

1st. $38.50
2nd. $66.22
3rd. $73.12
4th. $82.22
5th. $89.96
6th. $95.44
7th. $99.93
8th. $103.19
9th. $106.21
10th. $109.27

So to crunch that:

1st year 38.5*72*9months $24,948 +3 months trng pay $4,500 = $29,448. Assumes reserve for the full year which is very unlikely. vs $90*75*12 = $81,000 for a loss of -$51,552. Even on reserve people can fly well above min with only 2-3 days of extra work. 90h credit is very realistic on reserve if he is willing to drive in 2-3 times a month.

From here on I have used 80h instead which is a good average for the system w/o OT.

2nd $63,571 vs $87,360 = -$23,788
3rd $70,195 vs $91,200 = -$21,004
4th $78,931 vs $93,120 = -$14,188
5th $86,361 vs $93,120 = -$6,758
6th $91,622 vs $93,120 = -$1,497
-->>(Break even after a total loss of 120k!!!) Ouch. Of course better QOL.
7th $95,932 vs $93,120 = $2,812
8th $99,062 vs $93,120 = $5,942
9th $101,961 vs $93,120 = $8,841
10th $104,899 vs $93,120 = $11,779

If he does not upgrade it will be a loooong time before he truly breaks even, in other words, he makes up that lost 120k.

So he will match his ExpressJet pay in about 5-7 years depending on how hard he is willing to work.

If upgrade comes in 2015 as we all hope the above table continues as this:

5th $130,896 (break even here)
6th $135,898
7th $140,736
8th $144,653 (make up for the loss in pay around here)
9th $148,992
10th $153,466

Tops out at 185.32*80*12 = $177,907 still with an 80h line.

Here is the actual pay scale with the stepping on both seats for reference:

Captain Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 64.65 64.65 65.94 99.62 101.62
2 96.64 96.64 98.57 119.49 121.88
3 104.46 104.46 106.55 124.04 126.52
4 108.14 108.14 110.30 128.78 131.35
5 115.51 115.51 117.82 133.68 136.35
6 117.65 117.65 120.00 138.78 141.56
7 119.74 119.74 122.13 143.73 146.60
8 133.68 139.16 141.94 147.73 150.68
9 135.69 142.27 145.12 152.15 155.20
10 137.73 145.44 148.35 156.72 159.86
11 140.53 149.10 152.08 161.43 164.65
12 143.30 152.84 155.90 166.27 169.60
13 146.09 156.61 159.74 171.25 174.67
14 148.90 160.44 163.65 176.40 179.93
15 151.67 164.33 167.62 181.68 185.32

First Officer Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50
2 61.31 66.22 67.54 70.63 72.05
3 66.38 71.69 73.12 76.21 77.73
4 71.39 77.10 78.65 82.22 83.86
5 76.35 82.45 84.10 88.19 89.96
6 78.77 85.07 86.77 93.57 95.44
7 80.77 87.23 88.98 97.97 99.93
8 82.60 89.21 90.99 101.16 103.19
9 83.19 89.85 91.64 104.13 106.21
10 84.22 90.96 92.78 107.13 109.27

FWIW a lineholder NB DL pilot can make 90K on 3rd yr pay by picking up a few days a month.

I did not use APC for Spirit's #'s. I used Spirit's actual pay rates with all the steps, down to the penny. The Spirit #'s are the only ones that are totally accurate (within the model).

Training pay was not part of my model.

In that case I am not sure how we have 5 years of difference. It is late I don't feel like redoing the excel right now but I will take another look.

I used min guarantee @ each carrier, including Spirit and XJT. You used 80 hours of pay.

If you were to assume the same amount of credit hours @ the various carriers as @ XJT, you'd break even much faster.

The high min guarantee @ XJT relative to most other carriers also helps explain the time it takes to get even. Spirit gives up 36 hours to XJT a year, while Delta is 60 hours a year behind XJT. UPS and Southwest both not only pay more hourly (after the first year), but also have much higher min guarantees (90 and 48 more hours a year, respectively).

UPS pays well, but the real reason they shine in my comparison is their 81 hour monthly guarantee, not their hourly rates. Something to think about for future negotiations, perhaps.

min guarantee is worthless. At the last two airlines I was at I can't remember a single time I was close to min guarantee. As a line holder or on reserve. The way airlines are staffed now a days most people are going to fly the 80 hours or more a month.

Do mean at regionals? We've got guys at DAL on the MD88 right now who barely fly.