Spirit...upgrade time?
 

How long do you think it would take being based in ACY? I have a pretty good job right now and would have to take a 70% pay cut to be 15 minutes from my house. Is it worth it?

ACY is very senior at the top and very junior at the bottom the CA list. Right now it's about 7 years to upgrade. Realistically, for someone getting hired right now i would guess 6-8 years depending on the scheduled growth and if it really happens.

You're playing a dangerous game thinking of going to an airline based solely on a domicile. Bases come & go all the time. JMHO.

If he truly is an XJT pilot and not a baiter on here, he is probably more aware of that now than at any time in the past.

Very true. The Woodlands crowd is unhappy right now.

Thanks guys, I thought it might be that long...can’t afford that kind of FO pay for six years. Looks like I’m still gona have to wait out the 65ers. I'm in no rush to go anywhere in this econ...but thought I should at least ask

You're going to make a career decision based on a couple of yahoo's responses on a web forum? Really? Well, you might as well hear one more...

I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy, so I may see things differently here. Based on the a/c the company claims are on order and what years they claim we will get them says the 2015 captains haven't been hired yet. BUT...

Don't ever look to history of upgrades to tell the story of the future of upgrades. I had a buddy that went to AirTran a few years ago solely based on the possibility of a 3.5 year upgrade...oops. So it can go either way. We don't have many people on our seniority list that have DOHs between 2001 and 2007. Our actual upgrade times could go from 8-9 years to 4 years quickly.

Are you the type that is left seat or bust? Then you probably should stay put where you are. How is your pay rate anyway? If it's what I looked up as a senior guy at XJT, then you'll only be $7/hour less within 5 years ($90/hr vs. $97/hr). How's your quality of life? Most would tell you our's beats any regional's- especially for our guys living in base.

I wish you the best of luck, but I'd advise you to do a little more homework before jumping to a conclusion.

A.K.A. the Woodlands mafia

Can't afford Spirit = can't afford to leave?
 

Not sure how senior you are @ ExpressJet, but @ most any airline, Spirit included, first year pay is gonna' be rough. That's a given.

I re-ran the the #'s (messed them up the first time, whoops!). Assuming you get min RSV guarantee, the current APC upgrade times hold, and you take the first upgrade available, it would take a 10 year XJT CA ___ years to break even @ the following carriers:

• Spirit = 11 years
• UPS = 2 years*
• Delta = 7 years (5 years NB FO average, then go to WB FO average)
• Southwest = 4 years*
• United = 15 years (5 years NB FO, 5 years 75/76 FO, 5 years WB FO)

*The high min guarantee of UPS and Southwest, coupled with their higher hourly rates, really skews their #'s, as you'll likely break the lower min guarantees of Spirit, Delta, and United regularly, but that's the problem with forecasting the future - you'll never be able to model it perfectly.

You will make less the first couple years, then you'll make more, but it takes a couple more years to 'catch-up' the $ that you lost, especially that first year. For example, an 8 year Spirit FO brings in more than a 17 year XJT CA, but it takes 4 more years to break even b/c of the lower earning first 7 years @ Spirit. After the first year @ Spirit (which is hard living), our hypothetical 10 year XJT CA will take a median pay cut of 15%, with the highest pay cut in year 3, @ 31%, and the lowest, in year 7, of only 2%.

Honestly, if your costs are so high you can't afford the first 6 years @ Spirit, than you might not be able to afford to leave XJT at all. Essentially, if you can't live off $35,000 for the first year and can't take a modest pay cut for around 5 years, you really can't afford to leave the left seat of an RJ for the right seat of most any 121 carrier based on min guarantee. For me, I never plan for more than min guarantee, and then I always know I'll be alright.

My Spirit #'s came from their 2010 contract, while all my other #'s came from APC. My humble pie comes from 'Swedish'. :D

Planning career moves based only on anticipated income is foolish. There's much more to it, of course (QOL, retirement, company stability, culture, etc.). How much importance you put to mathematical financial modeling is up to you.

I know you said you ran the numbers, and this is apples to oranges since he is asking about Spirit.

At UPS he would break even in the second year.
At guarantee
10 yr XJT -80/hr = 72,000
11 yr XJT -82/hr = 73,800
Total - 145,800

UPS 2011 rates
1 yr UPS - 37/hr = 36,000
2 yr UPS - 143/hr = 139,400
Total - 175,400

What you have to remember about age 65 is the effects will never go away. Sure in 2 years people will start retiring. But the effect of age 65 will last forever. Based on the trends we've seen, almost everyone is working until age 65. It basically means every pilot has the ability to work an extra 5 years. That means that things will always be slower than they were before age 65. It means a good 20-25% fewer pilots will ever reach a major airline because those currently there will stay longer.

Waiting for the effects of age 65 to calm down is a bad idea. The effects of age 65 will never go away.

If you're looking for a major with upgrade times under 6 years you're going to have a really long search. I totally understand the money issue, but the post by Sniper is spot on. The QOL here is fantastic, and you will end up better financially after the first few years.

I am planning(financially) to NEVER upgrade at Spirit...not that I never will, but to sit around and stare at the CA payscale is just pointless, and there are so many variables that will affect the time to upgrade. That being said, as an FO here I will top 100/hr in a few years. When you compare the FO rates here to the CA rates at XJT its a no brainer to make the move.

Now, on to bases. The ACY base could literally be gone tomorrow. There are almost as many reasons for the company to get rid of it as there is to keep it. The CURRENT plan is to keep it. We are flying very productive schedules, and the hotels in ACY are really expensive. I wouldn't count on the base being around long term though...for me its the same deal as the CA upgrade, I dont expect it, then if it happens, great for me.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

You can never out guess the airlines go or stay where you want to be.

I would not come here for ACY alone. Anything other than FLL is a gamble right now.

But one more thing to look at is the outlook for your current job. What is the future of 50 seat flying with oil they way it has been. Can you take that seat you are in as granted? The regional jet is a thing of the past. Will your company be able to transform into something else like RAH is trying? I am sure all this is on your mind.

On the other hand the ULCC model that Spirit pursues is also only working up to a certain oil price. $25 move in the wrong direction and the market segment Spirit is serving shuts down. People often mention JB and other LCCs as our competition when in reality our pax are the Walmart folks. A high % of our pax are poor and they are not on a trip to Medellin for vacation. They don't choose Spirit over JB. They had no choice. They don't go to Walmart because they want to save money, but because they have no money to save. This is why the model is good and the place has potential. It is tapping into a market that has the highest population of all. It serves the lowest income classes. But for the same reason Spirit can't raise prices so the game is over above $115 per barrel if sustained for a long period.

Coming to Spirit is a gamble for many reasons. The pay off could be a quick (4-5y) left seat in a growing company. May be even the next best thing. The other side has acquisition, merger, integration, staple, and furlough written all over it.

The pay is actually not bad. The scale on apc does not show the stepping but your 2nd year would be $66 if you get hired now. QOL is outstanding especially in ACY. Highest days off and if you are close there is always extra flying for you. The only thing is ACY is always in limbo and it is already senior. I am not even sure you could hold it out of class anymore.

Good luck with your choice.

With the upcoming payraises a 2nd year FO at Delta can pull down six figures. No way is it going to take 7 years to break even, maybe a few and it's all gravy after that. What does a 10 year XJT Captain make?

Well put. I've been watching energy very closely with oil price being a big concern, I cannot fathom the impact that July '08 prices would have on our industry.

Try not to laugh.......$79.35

$84.35 pre concession

Thanks for the number hash. Am i the only one that found this depressing???

I admit, I did not take the extra time to comb through Delta's contract for pay bumps, only Spirit's (this is a Spirit thread), but here's what I came up with using APC's #'s, which must surely give us a 'ballpark' estimate.

10 year XJT CA vs. new hire Delta FO = Delta earnings disparity:

1. 72,000 vs. 45,360 = -26,640
2. 73,800 vs. 65,520 = -8280 + -26,640 = -34,920
3. 76,500 vs. 76,776 = 276 + -34,920 = -34,644
4. 78,300 vs. 78,456 = 156 + -34,644 = -34,488
5. 81,000 vs. 80,640 = -360 + -34,488 = -34,848
6. 81,900 vs. 101,850 = 19,950 + -34,848 = -14,898
7. 83,700 vs. 104,790 = 21,090 + -14,898 = 6,192

I assumed our Delta FO would get paid the average NB FO rate (DC-9, MD-88, MD-90, A319/320, 737NG) for the first 5 years, then the average widebody rate (757/767, 767-400/A330, 787, 777/747-400) for the next 6 years, and would only make Reserve guarantee of 70 hours.

As you can see, starting in Year 3, the Delta FO brings in about the same as the XJT CA (that year, the Delta FO is on a $91.40/hr rate, while the XJT CA is on an $85/hr rate, but XJT has a 5 hour greater guarantee). The jump to WB pay bridges the gap in less than 2 years.

This is a typical result. You take a hit the first year, then you make about the same (junior NB FO = senior RJ CA) until you are able to hit a pay bump. @ NB only operators it is your upgrade to CA. @ WB operators, it is your move to the WB right seat. The longer the upgrade to CA, the longer the wait to get to both the right seat of the WB and the left seat (hence why United takes so long right now, 15 years in the right seat and a bankruptcy wage scale).

Nice numbers guys, and thanks for taking the time to figure them. Well im a 14 year captain flying about 92hrs on average out of EWR I don't commute and I bid well let's say in the top twenty. Pretty nice schedule and about half the year off and bring home just a little over 105000. However, with us just being bought by ASA and no joint contract in hand and CAL/UAL merger still going on it an understatement to say that im not just a little concerned. I don't think I would ever be displaced from EWR because they can't get anyone to stay here...living in Jersey is expensive to say the least and being middle aged with two young kids its not a money thing its a responsibility thing. Just exploring some options.

Not a left seat hog if that was the case I would have left for CAL five years ago when I could have flowed over, just was the wrong time to much going on I life...well I would have been sent to the street anyway...would have been recalled by now but still non the less...no job!

Many senior RJ captains that are in our mid forties or older find ourselves in this delema. If all the airlines had pay scales as high as UPS, FedEx and Southwest it would be an easy call. When you factor in a commute, and crash pad at the new job it looks even worse.

In that case, here's your new #'s:

• Spirit = goes from 11 ->12 years (barely)
• UPS = stays @ 2 years
• Delta = goes from 7 -> 9 years (w/o accounting for pay bump)
• Southwest = stays @ 4 years
• United = oh man, goes to 17 years!

The 92 hour credits, bidding top 20, great QOL, the Skywest purchase, future prospects of flying 50 seat RJ's and fee for departure as a business model, the chances that all of the carriers used as examples keep their current contract for the next decade (or stay in business @ all) . . . the formula can't account for those.:D

Good luck to all the senior RJ CA's who have to make the same decision.

It's nice to know some people REALLY know what went down.

it took me 1 year to make more money than i did at XJT. With that said i was a junior captain but now on 3rd year pay i make more than a 16 year XJT captain. Not to mention more retirement, days off and career progression/expectations etc.

it should be a no brainer for anyone younger than 45 years old imho

With oil on the rise, at what price does Spirit remain profitable? We're likely to see $100 bbl in early 2011 and some analysts say $120 in 2012.

Hopefully $120 bbl is unlikely, based on the Fibonacci retracement, but it is on the rise.

Are they profitable at 100, 110?

bingo!!!!!!

From what I understand we are profitable up to the 115-120/bbl range. Above that, well I dont know of any airline that was able to figure that out last time around, so we are all probably f'ed!

Just curious what you based this on.

Thanks for crunching those numbers Sniper. You Sir, are a real asset to this community, Cheers!

NOTE! Don't take any if his to heart. This is just another webboard yahoo. :rolleyes:

FWIW: I was told 18-24 months... it has been a little longer. There are guys that did upgrade that quick...

Si........ :D

Nice work Sniper, but I wanted to point out that in the bid from May, 2010, the junior 757/767 at Delta was someone 12 numbers from the bottom on the seniority list. So, almost anyone could of held a widebody position, if they wanted MSP.

I don't remember how the class assignements went to new hires this last round of hiring, but a new hire at Delta won't be stuck on the NB aircraft for very long.

Good job Sniper. However APC does not show the yearly stepping that Spirit has for the next 5 years. In reality who gets hired today will face the following FO pay rates (actually slightly better than that but that is too much detail):

1st. $38.50
2nd. $66.22
3rd. $73.12
4th. $82.22
5th. $89.96
6th. $95.44
7th. $99.93
8th. $103.19
9th. $106.21
10th. $109.27

So to crunch that:

1st year 38.5*72*9months $24,948 +3 months trng pay $4,500 = $29,448. Assumes reserve for the full year which is very unlikely. vs $90*75*12 = $81,000 for a loss of -$51,552. Even on reserve people can fly well above min with only 2-3 days of extra work. 90h credit is very realistic on reserve if he is willing to drive in 2-3 times a month.

From here on I have used 80h instead which is a good average for the system w/o OT.

2nd $63,571 vs $87,360 = -$23,788
3rd $70,195 vs $91,200 = -$21,004
4th $78,931 vs $93,120 = -$14,188
5th $86,361 vs $93,120 = -$6,758
6th $91,622 vs $93,120 = -$1,497
-->>(Break even after a total loss of 120k!!!) Ouch. Of course better QOL.
7th $95,932 vs $93,120 = $2,812
8th $99,062 vs $93,120 = $5,942
9th $101,961 vs $93,120 = $8,841
10th $104,899 vs $93,120 = $11,779

If he does not upgrade it will be a loooong time before he truly breaks even, in other words, he makes up that lost 120k.

So he will match his ExpressJet pay in about 5-7 years depending on how hard he is willing to work.

If upgrade comes in 2015 as we all hope the above table continues as this:

5th $130,896 (break even here)
6th $135,898
7th $140,736
8th $144,653 (make up for the loss in pay around here)
9th $148,992
10th $153,466

Tops out at 185.32*80*12 = $177,907 still with an 80h line.

Here is the actual pay scale with the stepping on both seats for reference:

Captain Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 64.65 64.65 65.94 99.62 101.62
2 96.64 96.64 98.57 119.49 121.88
3 104.46 104.46 106.55 124.04 126.52
4 108.14 108.14 110.30 128.78 131.35
5 115.51 115.51 117.82 133.68 136.35
6 117.65 117.65 120.00 138.78 141.56
7 119.74 119.74 122.13 143.73 146.60
8 133.68 139.16 141.94 147.73 150.68
9 135.69 142.27 145.12 152.15 155.20
10 137.73 145.44 148.35 156.72 159.86
11 140.53 149.10 152.08 161.43 164.65
12 143.30 152.84 155.90 166.27 169.60
13 146.09 156.61 159.74 171.25 174.67
14 148.90 160.44 163.65 176.40 179.93
15 151.67 164.33 167.62 181.68 185.32

First Officer Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50
2 61.31 66.22 67.54 70.63 72.05
3 66.38 71.69 73.12 76.21 77.73
4 71.39 77.10 78.65 82.22 83.86
5 76.35 82.45 84.10 88.19 89.96
6 78.77 85.07 86.77 93.57 95.44
7 80.77 87.23 88.98 97.97 99.93
8 82.60 89.21 90.99 101.16 103.19
9 83.19 89.85 91.64 104.13 106.21
10 84.22 90.96 92.78 107.13 109.27

FWIW a lineholder NB DL pilot can make 90K on 3rd yr pay by picking up a few days a month.

I did not use APC for Spirit's #'s. I used Spirit's actual pay rates with all the steps, down to the penny. The Spirit #'s are the only ones that are totally accurate (within the model).

Training pay was not part of my model.

In that case I am not sure how we have 5 years of difference. It is late I don't feel like redoing the excel right now but I will take another look.

I used min guarantee @ each carrier, including Spirit and XJT. You used 80 hours of pay.

If you were to assume the same amount of credit hours @ the various carriers as @ XJT, you'd break even much faster.

The high min guarantee @ XJT relative to most other carriers also helps explain the time it takes to get even. Spirit gives up 36 hours to XJT a year, while Delta is 60 hours a year behind XJT. UPS and Southwest both not only pay more hourly (after the first year), but also have much higher min guarantees (90 and 48 more hours a year, respectively).

UPS pays well, but the real reason they shine in my comparison is their 81 hour monthly guarantee, not their hourly rates. Something to think about for future negotiations, perhaps.

min guarantee is worthless. At the last two airlines I was at I can't remember a single time I was close to min guarantee. As a line holder or on reserve. The way airlines are staffed now a days most people are going to fly the 80 hours or more a month.

Do mean at regionals? We've got guys at DAL on the MD88 right now who barely fly.