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-   -   AA closes SFO crew base (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/62696-aa-closes-sfo-crew-base.html)

aa73 10-13-2011 06:24 AM

AA closes SFO crew base
 
Just announced. Perfect timing just before a concessionary TA.... or coincidence? BOS, DCA next, apparently.

Bucking Bar 10-13-2011 06:26 AM

Virgin claims its first kill?

acl65pilot 10-13-2011 06:28 AM

Jeez, that stinks.

intrepidcv11 10-13-2011 06:32 AM


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1068855)
Virgin claims its first kill?

While still failing to turn an operating profit...

hope AA guys aren't headed towards concessionary. That sure makes our poker hand sh!tter at Unical in front of the glorious mediator.

Bucking Bar 10-13-2011 06:39 AM


Originally Posted by intrepidcv11 (Post 1068858)
While still failing to turn an operating profit...

Branson aimed at United and Delta, hit American. That's one reason why I hope we let him twist over the Atlantic. But, we've probably helped him out there too by running away from that market.

Flyby1206 10-13-2011 06:50 AM

I doubt this is really a result of Virgin, and more a result of the genius cornerstone strategy. It has been slash-n-burn throughout the system since that 'plan' has been implemented.

eaglefly 10-13-2011 07:47 AM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 1068876)
I doubt this is really a result of Virgin, and more a result of the genius cornerstone strategy. It has been slash-n-burn throughout the system since that 'plan' has been implemented.

Correct. It's a small base and most think BOS and DCA are next leaving on the 4 cornerstones and LAX. As far as pressuring the pilots, it will only increase their anger and thus resolve.

A tombstone management with a cornerstone philosophy.

Sailor 10-13-2011 07:56 AM

furloughs?
 
http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/10/11/3437419/furloughs-likely-as-american-airlines.html


Is it true, or just AMR dirty politics...

Flyby1206 10-13-2011 08:24 AM

I know SFO isnt exactly a junior base, how many of those folks near retirement age will now be punching out Nov 1 instead of commuting for the last few years of their career?

QuagmireGiggity 10-13-2011 08:27 AM

How many pilots are in LAX?

Sniper 10-13-2011 08:31 AM


Originally Posted by aa73 (Post 1068853)
Just announced. Perfect timing just before a concessionary TA.... or coincidence? BOS, DCA next, apparently.

SFO, BOS, DCA all vanish? Perhaps sets the table nicely for a merger with someone who either is strong in one of those cities (LCC in DCA if this swap with DL goes through), or doesn't value those cities (the list is too long, to include AA). Obviously, wouldn't wish the angst of a SLI on anyone.

Sorry to hear the 4.3 million folks in the SFO area, including the AA locals, are losing the base.:(

INXS 10-13-2011 08:32 AM

True. A letter is posted from the cp on the company website, sorry to say.

Mink 10-13-2011 11:40 AM


Originally Posted by Sailor (Post 1068933)
http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/10/11/3437419/furloughs-likely-as-american-airlines.html


Is it true, or just AMR dirty politics...

My guess is no (additional) pilot furloughs since recalls of previous furloughees are on-going (albeit at a trickle) and the f'd up company is reeling from the recent mass of pilot retirements. Regarding the threat of furlough, other employees groups are what they are referring to, I think.

Nice of AMR to name the greedy pilots and their unjust retirements as the reason for the capacity reduction, and assumed upcoming furlough of other employee groups. Spreads a little more hate and discontent amongst the employees, which is always nice, especially as the holidays approach.

tsquare 10-13-2011 12:42 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 1068963)
SFO, BOS, DCA all vanish? Perhaps sets the table nicely for a merger with someone who either is strong in one of those cities (LCC in DCA if this swap with DL goes through), or doesn't value those cities (the list is too long, to include AA). Obviously, wouldn't wish the angst of a SLI on anyone.

Sorry to hear the 4.3 million folks in the SFO area, including the AA locals, are losing the base.:(


How does that harm the 4.3M people in SFO exactly?

buzzpat 10-13-2011 12:49 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 1068963)
Sorry to hear the 4.3 million folks in the SFO area, including the AA locals, are losing the base.:(

Wait...is the airport dropping into the Bay? Without AA, who will serve San Francisco? This is tragic.

georgetg 10-13-2011 03:05 PM


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1068855)
Virgin claims its first kill?

That thought has crossed my mind.

Richard is ruthless and BA is his archenemy.
Putting a big dent into AA and their portion of OneWorld would definitely hurt BA's Americas operation.
VX put a lot of capacity into AA hubs lately (ORD, DFW)

Its perhaps a little more than just coincidence.
Virgin America does seem to have limitless access to cash

Cheers
George

Bill Lumberg 10-13-2011 03:11 PM

How many AA pilots are in the SFO base? Will they migrate to the LAX base? How about BOS and DC? Which base is the most junior at AA?

slowplay 10-13-2011 03:18 PM


Originally Posted by Mink (Post 1069065)
My guess is no (additional) pilot furloughs since recalls of previous furloughees are on-going (albeit at a trickle) and the f'd up company is reeling from the recent mass of pilot retirements. Regarding the threat of furlough, other employees groups are what they are referring to, I think.

Nice of AMR to name the greedy pilots and their unjust retirements as the reason for the capacity reduction, and assumed upcoming furlough of other employee groups. Spreads a little more hate and discontent amongst the employees, which is always nice, especially as the holidays approach.

Gee, I wonder where I've seen this movie before....:eek:

My guess is that pilot furloughs will be dependent on the health of the retirement fund. When it gets below 80% lump sums are cut off, and retirements will slow dramatically. If the fund stays above 80% and retirements continue, no furloughs.

At my company we closed two bases leading up to Bk (DFW and MCO). If you see mid-level and "star" senior managers leave, you know they're headed for the courts. If not, expect a "do it once" (meaning do it twice) attempt at restructuring that is extremely painful.

nwaf16dude 10-13-2011 03:33 PM

Look at boyd's website. Aviationplanning.com. AA in SFO is a victim of the star alliance. Star owns something like 45% of SFO traffic.

tomgoodman 10-13-2011 04:14 PM


Originally Posted by slowplay (Post 1069185)
If you see mid-level and "star" senior managers leave, you know they're headed for the courts.

An early warning sign to watch for is the establishment of special "bankruptcy-proof" pensions (at DAL they were called SERPs), for senior executives. These are usually touted as "necessary to retain top talent" (who demonstrate their talent by taking the money and vanishing). :rolleyes:

X Rated 10-13-2011 06:28 PM


Originally Posted by Bill Lumberg (Post 1069182)
How many AA pilots are in the SFO base? Will they migrate to the LAX base? How about BOS and DC? Which base is the most junior at AA?

1) There's about 280 AA pilots based at SFO.

2) Who knows where they'll go....

3) BOS, DC? They'll probably close, too. That'll leave LGA/JFK, MIA, DFW, STL, ORD, and LAX.

shiznit 10-13-2011 07:26 PM

Just because they are closing the pilot domicile doesn't mean that they are cutting routes.

It is one less CPO and staff, and one less set of reserves you have to pay for.....That alone could make it worth the savings, without dropping a single flight. Who really knows, more like a nasty negotiating tactic.

putzin 10-13-2011 07:50 PM


Originally Posted by georgetg (Post 1069178)
That thought has crossed my mind.

Richard is ruthless and BA is his archenemy.
Putting a big dent into AA and their portion of OneWorld would definitely hurt BA's Americas operation.
VX put a lot of capacity into AA hubs lately (ORD, DFW)

Its perhaps a little more than just coincidence.
Virgin America does seem to have limitless access to cash

Cheers
George

I will respectfully disagree with this. AA will squash us if and when they take full aim. Their closing of the base is due to retirements. Their flights to DFW and ORD seem to always be pretty full. We have only added a few flts a day to each and they are hardly being bothered by us. We however continue to bleed cash. How much longer will we chug along? I can't imagine very much longer but stranger things have happened.

B757200ER 10-14-2011 06:38 AM


Originally Posted by X Rated (Post 1069274)
1) There's about 280 AA pilots based at SFO.

2) Who knows where they'll go....

3) BOS, DC? They'll probably close, too. That'll leave LGA/JFK, MIA, DFW, STL, ORD, and LAX.

They won't be going to STL; no vacancy sign there. My guess is LAX/MIA/LGA. And many of those senior CAs will not want to commute, so they'll retire instead (with full pensions intact).

surfnski 10-14-2011 08:11 PM

Bummer. SF is a fun city and a great place to live. Sorry to hear that guys. Best of luck in the transition.

plt32173 10-15-2011 07:00 AM


Originally Posted by putzin (Post 1069315)
I will respectfully disagree with this. AA will squash us if and when they take full aim. Their closing of the base is due to retirements. Their flights to DFW and ORD seem to always be pretty full. We have only added a few flts a day to each and they are hardly being bothered by us. We however continue to bleed cash. How much longer will we chug along? I can't imagine very much longer but stranger things have happened.

I wouldnt say bleeding is the right word. When someone is bleeding they try to treat the wound. You guys are building a Sim in SFO, expanding your HQ, and are experiencing some of the most aggressive hiring you ever have. It sounds like your 5 year growth plan attracted enough US investors to keep you alive till then. Id expect you to show 2-3 qtrs of profit next year to set up your IPO.

Golden Bear 10-15-2011 10:18 AM


Originally Posted by plt32173 (Post 1069989)
Id expect you to show 2-3 qtrs of profit next year to set up your IPO.

My wife expected to marry a guy who looked like Brad Pitt.




It didn't happen.

LineHolder 10-15-2011 04:33 PM


Originally Posted by tomgoodman (Post 1069207)
An early warning sign to watch for is the establishment of special "bankruptcy-proof" pensions (at DAL they were called SERPs), for senior executives. These are usually touted as "necessary to retain top talent" (who demonstrate their talent by taking the money and vanishing). :rolleyes:

Sounds like a classic case of 'occupy wallstreet' and why people are so mad

Sliceback 10-15-2011 05:52 PM


Originally Posted by B757200ER (Post 1069436)
They won't be going to STL; no vacancy sign there. My guess is LAX/MIA/LGA. And many of those senior CAs will not want to commute, so they'll retire instead (with full pensions intact).

Senior Captains? There two A scalers in SFO, and one of them is the Chief Pilot.

Bocaflyer 10-17-2011 06:09 AM


Originally Posted by plt32173 (Post 1069989)
I wouldnt say bleeding is the right word. When someone is bleeding they try to treat the wound. You guys are building a Sim in SFO, expanding your HQ, and are experiencing some of the most aggressive hiring you ever have. It sounds like your 5 year growth plan attracted enough US investors to keep you alive till then. Id expect you to show 2-3 qtrs of profit next year to set up your IPO.

I think they already are profitable, just showing loses to not pay taxes. I can't see how an airline with load factors above industry avg and a fairly competitive CASM and RASM could be losing money. I definitely agree they are setting up for an IPO, and they will magically start showing record profits next year to attract more interest. Of course we can all speculate to death, only time will tell the truth.

I'm surprised to see the AA SFO closure considering they just got their new digs in T2. Maybe it really has nothing to do with capacity into SFO, I don't imagine they will reduce flying and hand over their brand new gates to VX after waiting so long for them. This industry is a soap opera!

tsquare 10-17-2011 06:34 AM

de le ted.........

VenetianFryCook 10-17-2011 06:49 AM

I don't work for AA, but I don't think this has anything to do with downsizing the operation at SFO in any way. They are merely going to stop basing crews there. From what I hear, this is the first step toward eliminating the smaller domicile stations (in other words, BOS and DCA are on the block next) in favor of getting everyone in to NYC, MIA, DFW, ORD, and LAX ... and STL for the TWA orphans.

If the retirement spike has hit SFO particularly hard, and if closing the smaller bases was on the radar anyway, this makes more long-term sense than paying to move people to SFO to backfill, only to pay (again!) to displace them when the base closed later.

Old UCAL CA 10-17-2011 09:21 AM


Originally Posted by VenetianFryCook (Post 1070804)
I don't work for AA, but I don't think this has anything to do with downsizing the operation at SFO in any way. They are merely going to stop basing crews there. From what I hear, this is the first step toward eliminating the smaller domicile stations (in other words, BOS and DCA are on the block next) in favor of getting everyone in to NYC, MIA, DFW, ORD, and LAX ... and STL for the TWA orphans.

If the retirement spike has hit SFO particularly hard, and if closing the smaller bases was on the radar anyway, this makes more long-term sense than paying to move people to SFO to backfill, only to pay (again!) to displace them when the base closed later.

Far, far, too much common sense for the blogosphere...go home. ;)

Sniper 10-19-2011 07:58 PM


Originally Posted by VenetianFryCook (Post 1070804)
I don't think this has anything to do with downsizing the operation at SFO in any way.

SFO-BOS and SFO-HNL are vanishing (I'm sure there are others). What replaced them? Nothing = downsize.

From Boyd Aviation Consulting:

Alliance Strength. Not Market Strength.
In airline strategic and tactical planning, the concepts of “market share” and “load factor” are no longer primary. Today, they’re busy re-engineering revenue streams. Just dominating a “route” isn’t the goal – securing and building traffic flows across nations and across intercontinental markets is the goal.

We are seeing it in airline market planning. We’re seeing it in fleet decisions. And, we’re seeing it at airports of all sizes across North America, as airlines shift resources from traditional and historical applications.

It's simple: carriers are re-deploying resources from airline strategies to global alliance objectives.

Let's look at just one example. American Airlines in the past three months has announced it’s yanking BOS-SFO nonstops, with near 90% load factors, deleting SFO-HNL, with near 80% load factors, and relegating ORD-HNL (clocking in at over 80%) to only seasonal service. Traditional, worn-out, rearview-mirror thinking would conclude that such actions are nuts. Traditional me-too financial “experts” will conclude that American is being run out of these markets. What needs to be run out are some of these battery-powered Wall Street analysts, who get their expertise reading the drivel each other writes.

The fact is that American – like Delta, like United, like Air France, like China Airlines, and so on – are shifting to alliance strategies instead of parochial market strategies.

At HNL, for example the domestic market oneworld Alliance has just a 7.6% share. Star has 20%. At SFO, oneworld grabs less than 12%, v Star's 42%. Boston is a similar situation: [fancy graphic showing AA and OneWorld has little market share in BOS, SFO, and HNL]

What’s the common thread? It’s the relative weakness of the oneworld alliance at BOS, SFO, and HNL. While these airports will continue to be spokes for American, a route like BOS-SFO simply doesn’t contribute corollary market strength to either AA or – more critically – to the oneworld Alliance. So, that routing for AA is toast.
Coincidence that BOS is also mentioned by Boyd, and BOS is likely on the chopping block as an AA pilot base?

Can anyone actually cite an example of an airline that closed a pilot base, but maintained service levels? Seriously - name some.

US Airways in BOS and LGA, Delta in DFW, Delta/Northwest in ANC, AA in RDU, Continental in DIA, Fed Ex in Subic, Spirit in SJU . . . airlines pull bases down when they pull flying down, and open bases up when they grow flying there (JetBlue in BOS).

gloopy 10-19-2011 09:45 PM

SFO-BOS is being done by AA's code share outsource partner JetBlue. Metal neutral.

aa73 10-20-2011 04:28 AM


Originally Posted by gloopy (Post 1072268)
SFO-BOS is being done by AA's code share outsource partner JetBlue. Metal neutral.

AA does not codeshare with B6. Interline agreement only. AMR wants a codeshare badly but APA is standing its ground.

Mink 10-20-2011 08:39 AM


Originally Posted by aa73 (Post 1072312)
AA does not codeshare with B6. Interline agreement only. AMR wants a codeshare badly but APA is standing its ground.

Sounds like removing the word "puppies" and inserting "small dogs". Maybe it's only an "interline agreement", but they are pax on a B6 jet, not an AA jet, for those routes in question, right? Is not the result the same in terms of keeping AA flying for AA pilots?

Fishfreighter 10-20-2011 08:48 AM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 1072222)
SFO-BOS and SFO-HNL are vanishing (I'm sure there are others). What replaced them? Nothing = downsize.

Actually AS has service from SJC, OAK and SAC to the islands. AA codeshares these flights.

iaflyer 10-20-2011 09:42 AM


Originally Posted by Mink (Post 1072454)
Sounds like removing the word "puppies" and inserting "small dogs". Maybe it's only an "interline agreement", but they are pax on a B6 jet, not an AA jet, for those routes in question, right? Is not the result the same in terms of keeping AA flying for AA pilots?

No, very different.

The AA-B6 interline is no different that American interlining with Delta, United or Air France. Each airline keeps it's revenue and all that. In a Code-Share, the revenue is split between the carriers.

OKLATEX 10-20-2011 10:54 AM


Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 1072222)
SFO-BOS and SFO-HNL are vanishing (I'm sure there are others). What replaced them? Nothing = downsize.

From Boyd Aviation Consulting:


Coincidence that BOS is also mentioned by Boyd, and BOS is likely on the chopping block as an AA pilot base?

Can anyone actually cite an example of an airline that closed a pilot base, but maintained service levels? Seriously - name some.

US Airways in BOS and LGA, Delta in DFW, Delta/Northwest in ANC, AA in RDU, Continental in DIA, Fed Ex in Subic, Spirit in SJU . . . airlines pull bases down when they pull flying down, and open bases up when they grow flying there (JetBlue in BOS).

I hear what you are saying!

But just to clarify FedEx, we actually closed Subic because we were limited on growth and opened Hong Kong/Guangzhou so we could grow our Asia/Pacific System.

Back to AA though, I feel bad for them and hope they can work out their issues to the benefit of all the employees.


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