AA recalls
 

I just got the message AA is finally recalling pilots. Only 10 a month, but better than nothing!!!

That's great news for the Eagle guys...finally get some movement there.

Welcome
 

hurry up guys and come on down!!!!!!!

Real funny. At that rate, only 289 months (24 years) to go to recall all 2,890 furloughees.

Rah, rah.

Hmmm, retirements ring a bell with you?

I don't know how much you know about the furloughed pilot situation at AA...but, from what you just said, I suspect little. I retired from that carrier and have many friends on that furlough list.

How about you?

At the announced rate of return, it will take years before everyone gets back.

OK I'll bite, So you mean to tell me that unlike all the other carriers in the country, AA won't be retiring a good number of it's pilots in the next 10 years? I mean assuming that age 60 sticks...God knows most of us hope it does. As far as the furloughs at what ratio will they come back? Certaintly not 100%!

And no the guys I know are at Eagle, and they certainly deserve that left seat after 5 years. I'm just hoping they get it soon.

Why can't you guys just see that ATLEAST they are recalling?

I agree 100%!

I bet they recall more than 10/month. AA can't cover their attrition rate at 10 /month. Plus they are very understaffed. I am very happy that it has finnally happened.

Recalls
 

Recalls of any amount offer hope to an industry that has been kicked in the crotch, teeth, and pile-drived onto a concrete floor. As one 777 captain retiring triggers about 12 training events, ten recalls per month sends a disproportionate signal to the industry. :) It is, however, good news.

J

Yeah, realize that if AA has acquiesced and agreed to recall 10/mo they proably really need 30/mo and will have to increase at some point.

I guess that's pretty conclusive then. You don't know jack about recall chances at AA.

Then educate us almighty one...and what's with the attitude? Are you just ****ed because I support keeping age 60? Answer the question, or should I ask an actual "active" AA pilot? How many retire in the next 10 years?

Shackone, what do you see driving AMR's recall rate?
1) Retirements
2) Increased block hours
3) Contractual changes where pilots on property become more productive (ie QOL decreases to get a few more hrs/mo out of every pilot on property)
4) A change to age 65 for part 121 pilots

The first two will generate recalls; the last two delay recalls.
Since #2, 3 & 4 have not occured, I'm looking at #1. AMR probably has ~30 pilots/mo retiring. 10/mo doesn't keep up with attrition; this tells me that AMR is planning on #3 and/or 4 happening. If #4 doesn't happen (right now I see it as a crapshoot; could go either way), I'd be willing to bet that management is going to push for #3.
Should the pilots on property opt to take a pass on #3, recalls will accelerate (assuming block hours remain constant).
United forecasted a recall of 200+ pilots in 2006; it looks like we'll close out the year a bit short of 400 recalls. We burned through >800 numbers through November; I wouldn't be surprised if we burn through 1000 numbers to close out 2006.
At 10/mo, AMR's current forecast is for 120/yr. In order to generate that number of recalls, don't be surprised to see AMR burn through 400+ numbers. But I expect AMR to recall closer to 300 (to keep up with retirements) in 2007 and go through 1/4-1/3 of the furlough list. The deeper that AMR gets into the furlough list, the less furloughees will return. I expect AMR to recall the most junior furloughee (as long as status quo is maintained) no later than mid-2009.

The problem with any predictions is that there are a LOT of moving parts. And of course, hindsight is 20/10. So consider my ramblings above to merely be a WAG. What's your WAG on AMR's recalls?

I bet they don't recall more than that. AA has a very young pilot seniority list, and attrition isn't high. As far as understaffed, a few productivity changes and high efficiency lines will correct that. As far as I'm concerned, it's just a trickle in a vast ocean of furloughees----most definately the highest in aviation history.

And, they could always ground more mainline jets and add 90-100 seat flying at AMR Eagle.

I'm not an AA pilot (but I did sleep in an really nice hotel...). The word I heard from other guys is that AA is trying to hold back growth in order not to have to recall any TWA flight attendents. If they don't recall any TWA attendants by Sept 07 then they can just cut them loose. If they recall even 1 TWA flight attendant before that, they become liable for health care and retirement for the whole lot.

They have something like 150 AA FA's on furlough that get recalled before the TWA list.

Not speaking with any kind of special knowledge other than what I overheard at the bar.

As far as the pilots being recalled, I would think that of the 2900 or so furloughed, probably less than half will actually answer the recall.

I heard from a US FA they had to call four to get one to come back. Not sure about the pilots but I bet its 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 that they get back.

Great news they are calling anyone. I agree with "1seat" what is most likely happening with the TWA FA's. Sux but thats what they are up too.

They got the age 60 rule in when it was good for them, I don't see them fighting to pay the most senior pilots the highest wages for the next 5 years.

But really what do I know. And ease up on the "Shackster" he is the guru here, isn't he?

they become liable for health care and retirement for the whole lot.





Measure it with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, and cut it with a chain saw ... seems the AMR bean counters haven't changed.

J

As you might imagine, this recall is topic #1 with all of us AA'ers...active and retired.

The 'official word' is that 10/month will offset attrition only. How much faith do we have in that? Only the amount of faith that we have in anything coming from corporate operations. You probably can guess how much that is.

Given the number of folks on the street, even with the most sanguine estimates here, it will take 5 years or more to get everyone back who wants to come back. Five years in this industry is a long, long, time...as we all know, anything may happen in such a time frame.

Don't be too sure about the number of folks who will turn down the recall if you are using past experiences at other carriers. Being recalled to AA is not like being recalled to a less prosperous carrier or a carrier with less potential for the future.

Right now, the attitude with our folks is one of cautious optimism. Many did not expect a recall announcement until the present union negotiations had reached some agreement...and the summer season is over and with it the greater need for pilots. Once again, this only proves the old maxim that we'll never know what's going to happen until it does.

Bottom line...some recalls are much better than none at all. But it's going to be a long haul to get everyone back who wants to come back.

Here is the retirement schedule for AA:

Year Total
10/14/2006 - 12/31/2006 60
01/01/2007 - 12/31/2007 281
01/01/2008 - 12/31/2008 402
01/01/2009 - 12/31/2009 405
01/01/2010 - 12/31/2010 363
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 318
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 312
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 388
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 478
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 571
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 628
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 683
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 733
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 733
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 744
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 718
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 595
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 503
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 479
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 412
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 442

You can see that there is no 'Vietnam era' bulge...that's over and done with. The increase in the 2018 area is due to the increased hiring in the mid to late 80s and typify the hiring trends then of hiring ex-mil folks.

I've heard about TWA FA recall rights before. Can anyone discuss this in further detail? (Number of furloughed FAs, Recall rights, estimated cost to the company).
I've found it odd that AMR continues to reduce block hours while other carriers are increasing block hours. I can only imagine that it would be a significant cost item to recall TWA FAs.
Also, have the number of hrs worked/mo increased for AMR FAs?

Shackone, thanks for posting AMR retirement numbers. The 2007 number caught me by surprise; I was expecting it to be ~400.
As a comparison, here's UAL's retirement figures using the 7/1/2006 Seniority list:
2006 141 (7/1-12/31)
2007 263
2008 234
2009 231
2010 201
2011 167
2012 228
2013 245
2014 237
2015 270
2016 331
2017 307
2018 381
2019 355
2020 463
2021 506
2022 506
2023 575
2024 574
2025 538
2026 560
2027 408
2028 300
2029 226
2030 153


Do furloughees gain seniority for pay purposes while on furlough? If not, I think that many of the furloughees that have gone to other carriers will not return. I thnk that most that have gone to UPS & FedEx will stay there. Likewise, many will be just about to hold Captain at LUV when they are recalled.

NO, not at AA. No years-of-service while on furlough, although that was a tenet on recent section 6 openers.

So far, AA pilots still have A/B plan + 401k, retirement is intact. But, it could still be frozen or affected in some other way down the road.

As far as TWA F/As, that is NOT driving the company at present, but they would save money if very senior ex-TWA F/As came back via recall and either took retirement with health and passes or worked at max longevity, which they all had. They'll have to recall F/As on day soon, and some former TWA F/As will get called, IMHO.

On "another board", it was said that 500+ will retire each year, for the for seeable future.

Hello Andy,

Yes, it is definitely odd, if not downright maddening, that AA has been reducing its schedule over the last two years while everyone else has been picking it up. We've been told it's because AA wants to build up a big cash position to order new aircraft, buy another airline's assets, or pay down our huge debt ($18B or so...) Also, Wall Street loves shrinkage. The more jets we park, the more our stock goes up, the bigger the management $$$ bonuses.

AA has been trying to hold off on recalls for two years now, while furloughing "off the top." Since they were in shrinkage mode, they would just announce 25 jets being parked per six months to correspond to the retirements. Now, however, it appears that they've shrunk down to where they want to be. Hence, the recalls - they don't want to park any more jets, I guess.

Like you pointed out, 10 recalls/month won't cover attrition. I suspect that number will go up. But it's a start. And it also covers their a$$ in case something major happens, like age 65, contract concessions that require fewer pilots, etc. In which case, 10/month would be for growth! (hopefully not.)

The TWA/AA furloughed f/a situation is very unfortunate, as thousands of our coworkers on the street are slowly losing their recall rights. The most senior group will lose their recall rights in summer 2008. At that point, AA hopes to have a new contract in place, at which point they will launch a massive expansion, announce new aircraft orders, and recall lilke there's no tomorrow, if not outright hiring off the street. This of course is conditional on the economy and the potential for more terrorist attacks, war with N Korea or Iran (hopefully not!) and oil prices.

What can I tell you - it's a start, and some dearly awaited good news, for our furloughees, and for yours truly (2nd from the bottom system-wide.) The bypass rate will intially go higher as we recall more and more. Those that will come back almost definitely are our flowbacks at AE. The rest, who knows. Most of my furloughed friends have found good employment at CAL, Fedex, UPS, Netjets, Jetblue, etc. Most of them will bypass, I know that. It's gonna be interesting. I'm just glad AA finally jumped on the recall bandwagon.

Stay tuned!

73

Pass
 

Good Post - nice to see some people have facts to share.
I agree, expect for those poor souls slugging it out at American Evil, nobody who has moved on to good airlines like JetBlue will go for the first call.
To be the most junior, LGA based, S80 guy- again.

Well the thing to think about also is that some of those pilots are probably working at other airlines and have no desire to go back so the recall will probably be for every 5 called one comes back.

Well the thing to think about also is that some of those pilots are probably working at other airlines and have no desire to go back so the recall will probably be for every 5 called one comes back.

does anyone have the CAL retirement numbers?

Yeah, on another thread. I saw it just last week. Do a search for "Continental" or "CAL".

I work with many AA furloughees, I've talked to 4, non of them are going back, it want take as long as you think to recall all of them

Doesn't that tell you something?

Jetblue a good airline???? Maybe so BUT it's a ****TY JOB!!! Jetbule is just one example of what has happened to this profession!!!

yeah, that I got good job

:cool: TWA guys out there???Just wondering where U fall into the picture?

If 10/month are recalled, 120 will be recalled next year. Out of that, only 14 will be TWA pilots. The 106 AA pilots are all junior, new-hire F/Os hired in '99; the 14 TWA pilots are all '88 hires who were MD80/717 Captains.

See the discrepancy?

Yeah,

They should have had the jet time to leave a sinking ship around '91 and they'd be senior FO's or junior Ca's at AA by now. It's too bad those 14 guys stayed at TWA:D

EagleDriver:

Glad you have a crystal ball. I'm a March '88 hire at TWA and am a junior lineholder CA on the MD-80. Should I have left in the late '80's or '90's? I know guys around my seniority who weren't comfortable at TWA then and went elsewhere. I know a few who went to USair. Did they make the right decision? Some went to SWA. They probably think they're genious's.

EagleDriver, glad you're happy at Eagle.

Glasspilot
AA, former TWA

We will begin orientations around January 3rd and training will start afterwards. Basically, the ten a month is just a number we threw out for everyone. We are probably going to have to call 5 or 6 to get one. Someone brought up that Delta had to call 10 to get one. The guys that come back will most likely be LGA Super 80 FO's and MIA 737 FO's. Another issue is that according to the contract, they can defer for a long time; something like 3 years after all the recalls have taken place (don't quote me on this). This will probably happen with guys who don't want to commute and can't live at that base. Another issue is instructors. We have to call back instructors to train these guys for the planes and that take time in itself. This thing is going to take forever.

Illini