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-   -   US and AA....What happens next? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/66630-us-aa-what-happens-next.html)

DAL73n 04-14-2012 02:33 AM


Originally Posted by lake alice (Post 1168341)
Something else to keep in mind.

JetBlue Now Takeover Candidate (JBLU, DAL, LCC) : Small Stocks Radar

According to an article in the recent Bloomberg Businessweek, JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) is now a takeover candidate with Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) and American Airlines (PINK: AAMRQ) as the most logical suitors. US Airways (NYSE: LCC), now considering American Airlines, is always to looking to merge.

In the Bloomberg Businessweek piece by Robert Farzad and Justin Bachman, "Once High-Flying, JetBlue Returns to Earth," Delta Airlines and American Airlines are considered to be the most logical buyers due to JetBlue's strong presence at JFK. Several airline industry analysts noted in the article that this would be most appealing to Delta Airlines and American Airlines, once it emerges from bankruptcy.

At around $4.60 a share, JetBlue is certainly priced low enough to attractive a buyer looking to buy an airline at a discount. In 2007, JetBlue was trading at over $12 a share. Over the last year, JetBlue has fallen 21.33%. In recent trading, JetBlue has fallen while others such as US Airways have risen. Over the last quarter, US Airways is up more than 30%, by contrast.

As a result, it has very attractive valuations. The price-to-book ratio of JetBlue is just 0.74. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.29. On a quarterly basis, both sales growth and earnings-per-share growth are increasing for JetBlue. The forward price-to-earnings ratio for JetBlue is projected to be 7.32. There is also plenty of cash and short term investments to help defray the costs of an acquisition. JetBlue is profitable, but it pales in this area compared to other airlines.

Never appealing to a buyer, however, is a company with loads and loads of debt. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78, JetBlue certainly qualifies under this standard. However, the stock is priced low, which mutates this rating. In addition, debt can always be bought back at a discount.

Lufthansa owns 19% of JetBlue and is monetizing its stake by issuing bonds backed by the shares. JetBlue is down 16.64% in the last quarter, so it is certainly priced to sell. It is also down for the last week and month of trading, too. Even if JetBlue does not sell, the mean analyst target price for the airline is $7.09 over the next year.

Just for information - the current market cap of JetBlue (shares outstanding x stock price) is only $1.4 Billion and with their slots and non-union employee group (especially after what SWA did to AT) it could be very attractive - hard to see how AA gets into a "bidding war" when they need approval of the creditor committee and BK judge to do anything - they may have a plan but it's not apparent to those on the outside and it doesn't look like a quick exit. Hard to see USAir in the bidding when they just gave up NYC to DAL to get DC slots. As for DAL Management is looking to get a contract into place (opened negotiations early) so they can after something (Jetblue, Hawaiian, who knows?).

Trogdor 04-14-2012 04:39 AM


Originally Posted by DAL73n (Post 1169235)
Hard to see USAir in the bidding when they just gave up NYC to DAL to get DC slots.

US pulled out of NYC purely to make a deal with AMR or B6 more palatable to the regulators.

CVG767A 04-14-2012 04:52 AM


Originally Posted by Trogdor (Post 1169249)
US pulled out of NYC purely to make a deal with AMR or B6 more palatable to the regulators.

That's a pretty risky strategy, if it were true. Do you really think that they pulled out of the premier aviation market in the U.S., purely in the hopes that they can pull off a merger with another airline (something at which they've been generally unsuccessful)?

Timbo 04-14-2012 05:37 AM

Hey, in 1987 Delta bought Western, just to get the West Coast, but over the past 25 years has slowly backed out and given all that flying to Alaska, who is growing and hiring, to fly all that stuff Delta gave away.

And guess which airline is the next consolodation target for DAL (after they secure that lucrative Oil Farm, of course!)?

R57 relay 04-14-2012 05:47 AM


Originally Posted by CVG767A (Post 1169253)
That's a pretty risky strategy, if it were true. Do you really think that they pulled out of the premier aviation market in the U.S., purely in the hopes that they can pull off a merger with another airline (something at which they've been generally unsuccessful)?

I think they pulled out because they couldn't/wouldn't compete. For years we have been using some of the best facilities at LGA to run a bunch of DHC8s and RJs.

tailendcharlie 04-14-2012 07:31 AM


Originally Posted by R57 relay (Post 1169265)
I think they pulled out because they couldn't/wouldn't compete. For years we have been using some of the best facilities at LGA to run a bunch of DHC8s and RJs.

This is exactly correct...US was mostly a regional operator out of LGA with mainline flights to hubs and some Florida. And virtually nothing out of EWR or JFK meaning the business crowd (the supposed target market of US) tended to patronize the larger legacy carriers that offered a broad base of nonstop destinations.

KillingMeSmalls 04-14-2012 09:50 AM


Originally Posted by lake alice (Post 1168341)
Something else to keep in mind.

JetBlue Now Takeover Candidate (JBLU, DAL, LCC) : Small Stocks Radar

According to an article in the recent Bloomberg Businessweek, JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) is now a takeover candidate with Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) and American Airlines (PINK: AAMRQ) as the most logical suitors. US Airways (NYSE: LCC), now considering American Airlines, is always to looking to merge.

In the Bloomberg Businessweek piece by Robert Farzad and Justin Bachman, "Once High-Flying, JetBlue Returns to Earth," Delta Airlines and American Airlines are considered to be the most logical buyers due to JetBlue's strong presence at JFK. Several airline industry analysts noted in the article that this would be most appealing to Delta Airlines and American Airlines, once it emerges from bankruptcy.

At around $4.60 a share, JetBlue is certainly priced low enough to attractive a buyer looking to buy an airline at a discount. In 2007, JetBlue was trading at over $12 a share. Over the last year, JetBlue has fallen 21.33%. In recent trading, JetBlue has fallen while others such as US Airways have risen. Over the last quarter, US Airways is up more than 30%, by contrast.

As a result, it has very attractive valuations. The price-to-book ratio of JetBlue is just 0.74. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.29. On a quarterly basis, both sales growth and earnings-per-share growth are increasing for JetBlue. The forward price-to-earnings ratio for JetBlue is projected to be 7.32. There is also plenty of cash and short term investments to help defray the costs of an acquisition. JetBlue is profitable, but it pales in this area compared to other airlines.

Never appealing to a buyer, however, is a company with loads and loads of debt. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78, JetBlue certainly qualifies under this standard. However, the stock is priced low, which mutates this rating. In addition, debt can always be bought back at a discount.

Lufthansa owns 19% of JetBlue and is monetizing its stake by issuing bonds backed by the shares. JetBlue is down 16.64% in the last quarter, so it is certainly priced to sell. It is also down for the last week and month of trading, too. Even if JetBlue does not sell, the mean analyst target price for the airline is $7.09 over the next year.

This makes a lot of sense IF it was this simple. The truth is that NY loves JetBlue and their competitive pricing. Politicians from NY have weight in the the DOT (part of the reason they're one of the only successful startups).

If Delta was successful in purchasing JetBlue the DOT would only let them keep half the slots and JFK would say hello to Southwest. This is why JetBlue wasn't bought back in '08.

buddies8 04-14-2012 11:30 AM

JB charges the same as every one else.

Flyby1206 04-14-2012 12:09 PM


Originally Posted by KillingMeSmalls (Post 1169345)
Politicians from NY have weight in the the DOT (part of the reason they're one of the only successful startups).

If Delta was successful in purchasing JetBlue the DOT would only let them keep half the slots and JFK would say hello to Southwest. This is why JetBlue wasn't bought back in '08.

Ding ding! Its all about politics.


Originally Posted by buddies8 (Post 1169373)
JB charges the same as every one else.

But the general public thinks that JB is cheaper than the big bad guys, so thats all that matters. Same goes for SWA


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