Start-Date for pilot shortage ?
 

I see "upcoming pilot shortage" discussed on the board alot.

Can anyone give me the start-date please

Yes, I am serious, well somewhat ;)

my flight school told me it would be sometime next year....:S

Chuck Norris said it will never come because it's nothin more than an old wives tale .....

I think you need a tarot card reader for the best answer.

Ask Kit Darby. It's tomorrow.

December 21, 2012.

Also the date the world ends, so no matter what, there will be a pilot shortage.

Right after pigs start flying and the temperature in Hell drops to -40

Right after you sign this loan agreement, I promise.....

There will never be a shortage. End of story.

There will be a high amount of replacements needed over the upcoming years. Replacements will be found, shortage will never occur.

http://photos1.blogger.com/img/169/3...%20Pilot.1.jpg


oh you meant pilot shortage not short pilot. anyways never.

come on guys, I am serious. I see it posted alot here, how it is "really gonna happen this time."

Age 65 group all gonna retire, "big expansian in Asia", freight is growing, etc etc blah blah blah.

looking for the start-date please

Freight is not growing (volumes are actually dropping right now), asia is slowing down it's growth rate. Only thing you've got going is Age 65, which means all the pilots flying the 50 seaters that are about to be parked will be moving over to the mainline to replace the guys moving up after 10+ years of stagnation at the bottom.

shortage? nope!

The 5-year extension for the 60-to-65 rule change "ends" on 13 Dec 2012.

As others have said, this doesn't necessarily mean that any hiring frenzy is going to kick off on that date. This only causes a hiring boom if every retirement is filled with a new employee number instead of the airline simply contracting and having less pilots flying less lines.

what about

big orders to replace old equipment aka AA
growth of "niche markets"
business travel on "upswing"
etc etc

come on give me something to work with.....

start-date please :rolleyes:

Come on, dude...it's not like this "hiring boom" is scheduled on a calendar or something. It's a forecast -- generally over the next 5 years.

+1



filler.....

Toward the end of 2007 early 2008 there was a shortage between flight schools, some part 135 single/multi outfits, all the way up to some regional airlines. Trans States was hiring 250h total ME commercial if I remember correctly. I think Comair had a sign on bonus. Some regionals took direct entry CAs. Gojets, Gulfstream, some others I don't remember. Several check hauling companies had to cut capacity since part 135 IFR mins were well above 121 and they could not keep people above 1000h total time. I know Flight Express lost a lot of business during those times.

Even if there will be a shortage, it will never hit the majors. With these oil prices and E190s going to the majors there has to be some significant capacity cuts at the regional level. So it will not even affect the regionals.

That is my guess anyways.

The start date is January 23, 2013.

Next.

yes I am aware, but wanted to get it brought out into the open as I see "the shortage" discussed on here more and more

Don't be silly! The pilot shortage will have occurred when sometime after you are hired and you notice 500 pilots beneath you on the senority list!

The last one was in the summer of '40. The next is scheduled for June, 2015, my planned retirement date.

Come on, is this serious? There has been an upcoming "pilot shortage" for everyone one of the last 40 years.

GF

I think the year was 1966...........

IF (and a BIG IF) the pilot shortage comes, it wont happen before 2020. That's when most of the majors start to see big numbers of retirements

Until the Age 67 or 70 rule comes into play, then you can tack on another few years to that.

there will never be a shortage of pilots... only a shortage of ones that will work for $25-50/hr as FO's at regionals and 3rd rate airlines..

In 3 years from today I predict that the rest rules & 65 retirements will have the regionals scrambling for pilots. RAA and IATA will then start lobbying for ab initio programs.

Pilot shortage to begin may 21st 2016 at 7:20:15 pm CT. That is right you heard it here first I know a guy on the inside. Everything he has told me has always come true. Very reliable. Sorry but if you ask a stupid question this is what you are going to get. Did i also mention next wed lottery number will be ..... cant give those away i am going to win and i do not want to split it.

pilot shortage
 

Lets do an unofficial poll. How many pilots are out here willing to work for >$25/hr and sell their first born to get in the right seat of a shiny jet? reply with yes. Don't lie you know who you are.


Now how many pilots are willing to try to stick it to the man make sure Pilots get paid what they deserve?

Pilot shortage will happen April 13, 2026. Feel better now?

I thought working for greater than $25 was a good thing.

High bypass makes me HONIE. Get it? Lawl.

I am not really even sure about this....Isn't Delta mainline trying to shrink it's current pilot force from 12,000 to 9,000 ish? (serious question) Simultaneously they are trying to shrink their regional pilot force.

I'm not sure that part 121 flying is a growth industry in the next 10 years. One retirement does not equal one new hire. *That's the problem.*

I'll participate in your poll; I will work for greater than $25 per hour. As a matter of fact, go ahead and make it $250 and hour.

I should add that yesterday NPR had a segment on about the pax flying boom in Asia. They discussed the 10 year increase in flights/pax enplanements. The numbers were impressive. I am not sure how many expats they are hiring. I am also not sure how many people are willing to become ex pats and fly there. They did not discuss the Middle East, but I believe Emirates and Qatar Airways (at least those two) are taking *big airplane orders. Food for thought.

And where is ATP Cliff? That guy always has something positive to say! (which I am not bagging on him for)

Although I am not a 121 pilot I do have a couple of observations to point out that are positive.

-Air travel will increase across the world including the US for years to come. There are just a few life changing events that could slow it down. The population is growing every second that goes by.

-I see lots of talk of consolidation. Airlines may try to shrink but others will just grow in their place(reference above). I know this industry has been hard for a lot of people the 15 years but growth will happen and pay increases will happen to if pilots would learn to stick together and not cut each others throat all the time (novel concept, huh??)

Will we see a pilot shortage? No one knows until it happens! I can see plausable facts from both sides but we do not know the future. I feel we will see movement and demand go up quite a bit from what most of us sub 40 guys have seen in past but no one knows how high. The best thing we as pilots can do is to try to make the future of this industry the best we can. Things in every industry suck some no matter how awesome you might think they are.

ok I don't know why I am even attempting to answer this...

How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.

What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.

The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.

It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.

Am I the only one to think that Satpak started a super effective troll thread? Geeze....

and three months later the company announces 700 pilots will be furloughed.

If this is what you think will happen I say good luck buddy!

When Orvil and Wilbur got ready for the first flight of a powered aircraft, they flipped a coin to see who would get to fly it.

Airplanes did not even exist yet and there were already twice as many pilots as were needed.

Nothing has changed, except for folks stopped crashing, smoking and drinking to excess ... so now pilots live waaaay too long. You know, we can miss you if you never leave ... .

Seriously? Why even bother posting moronic **** like that. I don't know why I even bother to formulate well contsructed thoughts. It's just a waste of effort on this site.