Transatlantic JV
 

Here is a good perspective from last year on what is happening with the Transatlantic JV:
This is news from last year, but since then it has gotten worse:

Delta plans to trim an additional 5% on existing 7-8% capacity cuts

• ATL Paris: cut one of three daily flights
• ATL Barcelona: cut
• ATL Milan: cut
• JFK Prague: cut
• JFK Rome: cut
• JFK Athens cut

With the Euro zone in crisis it's no surprise Transatlantic flights are being cut.
What is surprising is how the cuts are fairly one sided with Delta making the vast majority of the route reductions, while relying on AFKLM/AZ to pick up the loads to the key hubs CDG and AMS and the perform the onward European flying.

We are already below 50% and cutting way more flying than our JV partners
This graph is nearly identical to what Delta showed investors:

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/25953519/TA...ason-04-JV.jpg
The new chart for this winter will most likely look similar...

Apparently I am in the minority in finding this not keeping in the spirit of the Transatlantic JV language. We are well below the 50% mark and below even the 'low-water mark" of 47.6% when Alitalia joined the JV. For last year the cumulative production balance was 47% of the flying. For perspective: our codeshare guy RD equates a 2.4% difference as 6-7 daily transatlantic flights.

Cheers
George

George,

While all that is true, the real problem here is the measuring mechanism. The out of balance is allowed to exist for a long time prior to measurement and cure. We're allowing the exact same thing with this TA. Ratios that don't even have to be measured for 2 years and don't have to be corrected for 2.5 years...if we even defend them.

When will we learn?

Carl

George, thanks for making the complex understandable.

Don't worry guys, we'll get it all back in profit sharing. Oops, well maybe not in profit sharing.

Any way, don't worry, we'll get it back some how, some day.

Not to confuse ramblings with facts, but AF/KLM/AZ are cutting transatlantic capacity by about 15% this winter. Their total capacity cuts are more than double what Delta's are. Your graph shows what happened last winter. I note how you try to confuse the intra European capacity with the Trans Atlantic capacity. As you know, we do US domestic and they do intra Europe and the JV is about Trans Atlantic capacity. So you discussing intra Europe flying is just one more misdirection.

I guess this is just as accurate as your bogus staffing slide. Well, really your entire line of bogus slides.

It's a two step process.

This TA is the first step.

And then there are no other steps.

http://www.witcoating.com/images/upl...r-Polish-1.jpg

Alfa,
Thats a pretty tall claim...

What AFKLM/AZ city pairs were cut,
what AFKLM/AZ routes reduced

how many EASKs for them, for us?
What is the monthly and accumulated production balance for the current compliance period from April 1, 2011 to date?

All my points have sources and are independently verifiable.
None of your claims can be substantiated in the same manner!

Show me!

Cheers
George

You do know that KLM/AF have capacity cuts across the North Atlantic for the peak summer season of 6.5 percent? They are planning large cuts for the winter and just announced large layoffs in support of their new schedule. I don't know if your intentionally trying to miss lead or did not bother with even a tiny bit of fact checking. I am actually not sure what your even trying to say. If your trying to make a point that without the joint venture Delta would have maintained capacity in the face of a huge economic meltdown in Europe then I think you are disallusioned. I think you can actually make the opposite case. Absent the joint venture pulldowns to Europe would be far more dramatic.

I looked and found this statement in George's post:

Well, I have several sources. There are several industry analysts that track capacity and I use three to give a rolling average. I also have the scope tracking scorecard that comes from Delta. Finally, we do OAG pulls to cross check the data.

I won't publish the EASK's because they are not public knowledge. Okay, now it's your turn, what sources do you have? You know, making a pretty graph does not make your information any more true.

Sailing,
Both JV partners have reduced Transatlantic capacity.
Delta has reduced Transatlantic capacity much more than AFKLM.
Our current production balance share of flying is below 47%.
Now Delta is cutting more capacity.

Nothing wrong or misleading at all. Just facts.

Cheers
George

The "pretty" graph is from Delta Air Lines in a presentation governed by SEC rules. the source is at the bottom of the slide.
Delta, partners to reduce capacity across Atlantic after Labor Day | Airline Biz Blog
here is the presentation: Delta: Building a Better Airline, 2011 Global Transportation Conference

Airline analysts have come to the same conclusion...
Delta Increases Reliance on Partners, Cuts Transatlantic Flights - >> The Cranky Flier

Annual and additional cuts in Transatlantic flying are discussed here:
Delta Air to trim capacity on trans-Atlantic routes | Reuters
City Pair information is public once loaded in GDS, here is a good source for DELTA W12 Trans-Atlantic Operation Changes as of 17JUN12 | Airline Route

Show me what city pairs that were cut by AFKLM/AZ, then show me ours.
Substantiate your claim of a 15% y-o-y Transatlantic JV flying reduction by AFKLM/AZ. You can't.

This isn't anger, agenda or misleading, this is reality.
let's have an honest discussion on where we are and maybe then we can have an honest discussion on how to improve things?

Isn't that CRM 101?

Cheers
George

George, you are wasting your time. These guys take what information and talking points the company provides and disseminate it as truth. It has got to be correct....after all "the company said so" and had some official looking docs made to prove it. Kind of like all the nonsense being put out to sell the TA now. They let the company do their research for them. It works out well for the company that way. The line pilots, not so much.

Well, that settles it.

Thank goodness we have nothing to worry about.
:mad:

How about just specific city pair cuts/reductions, then?

Okay, so you admit that you don't really have any data. The honest answer is that we were consistently above 50% of the JV flying until Alitalia joined. At that point we were down to about 47.5%. We negotiated to slowly recover to 50+% of a larger pie. Somehow you paint this is a concession or a loss for Delta pilots. That is just outright deception. You play with these numbers and then pretend we are having an honest discussion.

Since we want to have an honest discussion, maybe you can answer the following questions:

1. When you made your staffing slide you assumed less than 3 crews per airplane for MD-90 and B-717. Where did you get those numbers? The company estimate is 5.5 and 7.
2. How do you get an 80% shift in reserve flying from winter to summer? The actual shift in total flying is 13% while the actual difference is less than 2%. Where did you derive 80%? What data did you use?

I could go on forever. You are not trying to have an honest discussion. You are trying to have this TA voted down. That in itself is your right and a perfectly acceptable goal. You have chosen to try to deceive people with faulty graphs and fancy pictures and that is what I have a problem with.



You have two stories from 2011, one from 2012 that does not mention AF/KLM/AZ and then another that announces only Delta's route cuts. Are those your only sources, if so, they are not very good sources. I have analyst reports for both sides of the JV, Delta's scope compliance numbers, and OAG pulls. I will let others decide whose data is better sourced.

The simple question remains and it is a required measurement per 1.P.4:
What is our accumulated production balance for the current compliance period started April 1, 2011?

It's a simple question with a numerical answer in percentage points.
If everything is as great as you put it, you shouldn't have difficulty to produce it.

No condescension, no spin, just a howgozit on the Transatlantic TA...

Cheers
George

PS:
All your other points are fine diversions.
I'll be happy to answer them in turn.

What a smack! That hurt just reading it.

Did you see what the Arab Spring did to all European airlines? How about the Eurozone crisis? How about Air France looking for 10,000 people to take voluntary cuts (the first step)? I don't think you are looking at the BIG PICTURE here George. Europe isn't doing very well, and in the meantime this TA could give us a 19.7% raise in 2 1/2 years, while adding 88 717s for our domestic growth, while parking 200 RJs (adding 70 larger), and giving us a favorable ratio going forward. That needs to be in your big picture.

Hey Bleater -- I'm disappointed, you worked Euro what-ever in there; but, you left out housing prices and the NMB.

As best as I can tell it's 47.5. Your turn.

Bill, against my own better judgement, I will attempt to answer your post.

• At issue is not whether or not there are cuts in Transatlantic JV flying to Europe. (there are)
• At issue is which pilot group is shouldering the majority of the Transatlantic JV flying cuts. (it's us, Delta pilots)

I've spoken about this very subject with Tim O'Malley. He is the guy who signed MOU16, the agreement that created the new compliance period from April 2011 to March 2014.
He is saying Delta has tried but can't get AFKLM to reduce flying more. As a result Delta is making the lion's share of the cuts and using the AFKLM network in Europe to cover the loss of direct Transatlantic service to some European cities. On our side of the Atlantic AFKLM/AZ have only cut 3-4 cities.

Anyone in JFK on the ER is pretty aware of this loss of destinations and even some guys in ATL have started to notice...

Delta has until March 2015 to fix this situation.
In the meantime we will shoulder our share of the cuts, add some of AFKLM/AZ's share of the cuts and like it.

An because we fly generally smaller jets, we will take a proportionally larger hit on block-hours.

That's the big picture...It's real and it is happening now.

Cheers
George

George,

Thanks so much for considering to respond to my humble post..... How many of the DL JFK cuts affect AF/KL/AZ? Yes, the whole JV between our groups throws money into a big pot, but are they affected if we can't fill a 757 from JFK to ARN in the Winter? We added a bunch of 757s across the Atlantic because CAL was doing it out of EWR. Even they are cutting back, taking 757s off of those routes, adding UAL 767-300s where they can, or just chopping the routes like we are (JFK to FCO and EWR to FCO will both be cut in the Fall/Winter). Does it make sense to run a 757 on a trans Atlantic route when oil is high and the Eurozone crisis is happening, during slow season too?

Delta decided to shift 757s out of that market, it might not work on certain routes (they kept Valencia, Malaga, Shannon, and Rekyavik, and PIT--CDG for the Summer), but on most they have determined it to not work. The JFK 7ER guys were given a taste of variety, only to be out done by economics of that plane. Could we throw excess 7ERs onto those markets, like ARN, CPH, etc for the Winter? And take them off of better producing runs to Asia or South America? I guess you would want that... Some of the ex TWA 757ERs are actually in the process of being moved to Asia to try to get higher revenue passengers for the better 1st class product on those particular 757s.

So, to recap, you want the smaller 757s to continue to lose money, even if they are not the correct plane for the route. That route may just not make economic sense in the Winter. Delta used to reduce 767ER schedules by huge amounts each Winter from ATL and JFK, giving crews long layovers because service was reduced. But, you don't want to see that. That's what I see. Just like you want to keep older 50 seat RJs on money losing routes, even though a 70 seater would make more money for the airline, and maybe help your profit sharing check. Maybe you want A319s on every DCI route now, regardless of the extra cost? Oh-kay. Thanks so much for indulging me with your response...

I think you got a little something on your nose there Bill. :eek:

Carl

Get used to this response. When January 2015 rolls around and it's time for Delta to "implement its plan" to bring the RJ block hour ratios in balance, we'll here something very similar from Mr. O'Malley.

Carl

You many also see a new JV partner and a new measurement period start. Not saying it "will" happen, just saying I would not be surprised at all. With the new language in the TA our share of the total JV has a floor of 37.5%

I got 47.29% by March 31, 2012, with numbers from Sam and Desi (Codeshare commitee)

Since March 31 2012 Delta has cut more European destinations:

ATL Paris: cut one of three daily flights
ATL Barcelona: cut
ATL Milan: cut
JFK Prague: cut
JFK Rome: cut
JFK Athens cut

In the same time, AF reduced twice daily service from Paris to Dulles to one A380...and KLM cancelled MIA Amsterdam.

It's not really rocket science to see how we would be below the 47.x% at this point unless AFKLM/AZ makes massive cuts to match. None have been announced.

Cheers
George

Great. I feel much better. :eek:

Carl

Not once have I advocated for flying aircraft into markets, just because.
I'll say it again: obviously flying across the Atlantic is reduced.

Delta pilots are shouldering more cuts than AFKLM/AZ pilots.

I don't think that's right.

Apparently you're fine with that.

Cheers
George

It will be that,

Increase to 52.5 for the last 18 months

1.P.4. Note 2

or massive cuts by AFKLM/AZ

Cheers
George

OTOH I do think we're cutting way too much. Cutting Athens only to see a maniacal, dellusional, dual subsidized foreign carrier pounce on it with a 777 (code sharing with an ULCC that we're also gifting capacity to so they can stay in endless growth mode) is an epic fail on the part of our management and there will be more to come. Look at their order books as well as the ULCC's here. We need to go to the mat for our market share or we will lose in the long run and lose badly. Our present vector is unsustainable and based on fear, weakness and short term trophy numbers at the expense of a more viable future as the fierce competitor we need to be.

Well, you promised to answer my questions when I answered yours. I guess my quick math was 0.21% off yours, sorry.

Now will you answer the questions I posed about your slides. I see you want to talk about anything else, but you promised to answer my questions.

1. Why did you assume a staffing ratio of less than 3 crews per aircraft when you made your DPA talking points slides? We have no aircraft that are staffed that low, in fact you are about 50% low. The company's actual plan is 5.5 for MD-90 and 7.0 for 717. How did you come up with those numbers? Was it based on some analysis or did you just shoot low to deceive people?
2. Why did you assume that reserve flying would increase by 80% from winter to summer? The actual shift in total flying is 13% and the historical difference in reserve flying is about 1.5%. How did you come up with 80%? Was it based on any analysis you did or did you just fudge the numbers to deceive people with your DPA slides?

I am really interested, because you created these slides, that are all based on false analysis. They were widely spread by DPA. Did you even attempt to provide the truth, or were you just trying to scare people into voting no?

I await your reply, you promised.

Not sure how off subject this might be, but we have all been focused with a merger down the line domestically, but what are the chances that we may be possibly looking to merger with a foreign carrier?

Not sure what type of regulatory hoops both companies would need to jump through, and I'm not even sure if it is even feasible.

The TA forbids DAL from supporting a foreign entity from purchasing us, but not from DAL purchasing a foreign entity/carrier.

If it happens it happens. That shouldn't be our concern. Which pilots get to do the flying...now THAT should be our concern.

So which pilots would get to do the flying?

More importantly. What in the TA dutifully protects us or binds DAL to commit its pilots to performing any flying?

Also does our labor law transcend boarders? Can you make that happen in a CBA/PWA, or does it have to be regulatory and not just with the US government?

Being foreign carriers could make RJ whipsaw look like child's play.

It could, and we need to prepare for that. However I'm not too worried about the labor laws in the EU countries or Canada. Anyway US airlines have bases overseas. It can be done, we just have to force the issue contractually. Now, before its happened, is by far the best time to get such protections from the company, when they are 100% free. If the company balks, we know their intentions.

Read Sections 1C, 1D8, and 1E 3. and tell me what you think?

Read Sections 1C, 1D8, and 1E3.

I've read them. My point is that our PWA and US labor law only dutifly bind DAL, not a foreign entity. Our labor law cannot be used for foreign pilots.


I do wonder if it can be used by a foreign holding company that DAL has a majority, or majority minority stake in. I do understand the foreign ownership percentage triggering mechanisms in place in the PWA, but there still seems to be some latitude there.