Majors and pilots needed for 2014
 

I'd like to get an idea of what the total # of pilots needed by Majors for 2014. Here's what I have so far:
Delta: 500-600
Southwest: 200
Spirit: 300?
Jetblue: 200?
American/UsAir: ????
United: 600

Frontier? Alaska? Hawian? Atlas?

Who am I forgetting? Any idea on the #s for USAir/American?

Roughly 2000-2500 is my best guess...if so, that equates to approxomately 10% of the regional pilots...20%ish of the CAs...25%+ of hireable CAs who want to leave. These #s are guestimates at best...feel free to correct/disagree

For Delta:

The official number is 300 (that's what has been funded). That being said... they will most likely receive funding for a total of 600 pilots for 2014. That announcement should be forth coming soon.

Now, I also had a conversation with someone from Network who said they would like to hire 1000 pilots in 2014. We shall see who wins out. I will put my money on 600 plus for 2014. It's real hard to pin Delta down on what, how much or where flying will be taking place.

AA = at least 600 for 2014.

Majors and pilots needed for 2014
 

AS = 16 to 60ish.... Just a guess.

US Airways is planning on 300 for 2014

Majors and pilots needed for 2014
 

My friend and I did this same math after OBAP after talking with the recruiters informally and came up with similar numbers except we banked on 900 for American and US Airways combined. We also counted on no pilots (obviously not the case) leaving a less desirable major or legacy for a more desirable one. Our total was about 2,700 total, which we assumed meant about 4,000 interviews which might seem to drain the pool of 3,000 PIC guys rapidly if all goes as well as we all hope. I'm sure my numbers are probably a tad too optimistic...

Seems as if 2500-3000 may be closer to what's planned...if 4500 are interviewed and assuming the majority interviewed are CAs, take out 20% of roughly 14000 regional CA due to lifer or unhireable (DUI, etc), then that should mean about 11000 eligible regional CAs...25% of eligible regional CAs should move on in 2014. Math is fun...and fuzzy

"I'm sure my numbers are probably a tad too optimistic..."


Not at all.

American is recalling 50 per month and has been since January. My understanding is that will continue infinitely even after the furlough and flow list is exhausted in summer 2014.

UsAirways East needs 1000+ during 2014 - 2016 (no breakdown given per year yet) just for retirements alone not including the new rest rules (though I've yet to hear even a preliminary number there so speculate as you will).

UsAirways West has 66 joining the ranks to exhaust their furlough list - haven't heard anything beyond that.

jb only needs 2 for retirements. Roughly 200 for attrition and I think we take 11 planes next year.

Don't forget the wave of 2001-2003 military guys that were picked up are all hitting the end of their commitment. I'm floored by the number of guys getting out from those I've talked to.

How many estimated?

Pick a number, your guess is as good as mine. Lots of platforms across several different branches of service. Who knows, but it won't be insignificant.

I don't think Spirit will be over 200 in 2014.

Those are the numbers impossible to pin down. I've seen a bunch retire from the military over the past 3 years, and enter the holding pattern at a regional, or as a flight instructor, or something to maintain currency.

In addition, there are the guys like me that have already jumped at the end of an 8 year contract, and are set up in the holding pattern with a reserve flying job.

Then you have all of the guys behind me, that can get out in 2014 with plans to jump ship.

Oh, and the Marines are paying their pilots $160k to leave.

I can guarantee that those numbers are already built into the 10.5k apps on file at United.

There is a good chance. Right now we are at 22 a month and hiring didn't slow down at all this summer. If 22 a month continues then it might happen, I'm hoping anyways.

That is what I was thinking....with FAR 117, the new aircraft orders, and probably a few guys for what-ever-reason type attrition? Gosh, I'd think Spirit would be north of 200 (given no national calamities).

200 just for attrition? That might be low. I heard 642 quit in August alone.

25% of your list?

I think guys are looking for credible info.

We will definitely have attrition. I'll start my 2nd yr in a couple months and I know guys that are 2 years senior to me trying desperately to get on at DL and UAL. Somewhat surprising considering they're likely within 6-8 months of upgrade. This job is way better than my last regional!

How many pilots usually to staff an airplane? 10?

Who says they'll all be captains? I bet it'll be more like 60 to 40% captain to FO.

I know one Marine that negotiated that up to $220K :eek:

More like 20%, looks like you'll have to upgrade! ;)

I doubt it.

DL has been around 80-90% current or previous captains/aircraft commanders

Maybe at the less desirable majors/LCCs...reality is it's a very competitive environment and if you can choose FO or CA, it's a very easy choice...unless you're scared of losing pilots to better pastures

Agreed. All things equal TPIC reigns. But I don't see only guys with TPIC getting calls. RJ FO's are getting hired at United right now.

Info direct from the SVP - total attrition Jan-Sept for 2013 = 38 pilots. That is off a seniority list of 2500 pilots - or less than 1.5%.

Total expected for attrition Oct-Dec (including recalls) is approx. 30-40.

On the flip side the total hired to date in 2013 is 200ish and will finish the year at 260. As for 2013, he said we will hire 12 pilots per delivery (total 120-150 pilots). Thus, factoring for new deliveries, FAR 117, recalls, attrition and such, the plan is to hire 250-350 next year. At least that is what is the CP's and others are saying

Frontier to hire 108 as of Sept. 2013 through Nov. 2014

What does upgrade at Spirit do for you?

For me nota whole lot. I already have TPIC but it would give me a bump in pay along with the left seat in a base that I live without commuting, DFW.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grumble View Post
Don't forget the wave of 2001-2003 military guys that were picked up are all hitting the end of their commitment. I'm floored by the number of guys getting out from those I've talked to.
How many estimated?

Estimates are funny and inaccurate. Some guys are leaving because of the job market on the outside picking up, but at least for the Navy, they're leaving because they're not getting promoted. The end of their commitment coincides with the O-4 board, which for the last two years has only been promoting 60% of their aviators.

Any job out there is better than the regionals...heck, the job I had in College is better than the regionals!:D

I only wish the Army had a 60% selection rate. For the last 2 years in a row the promotions rate to CW5 has been 20% and when you look at the fixed wing numbers it is less than 10%. That is why I am getting out, I did not invest in enough knee-pads to make a 10% cut.

Per our Head of Flight Ops, United expects to hire between 60-100 per month (total 720-1200) net of what few recalls (600 offered) come back.

What time frame?

There's a small WOPA contingent here at Spirit.

I am fine right where I'm at, but there are probably a significant number of pilots currently flying overseas who have been timing a homecoming around a big hiring push.

Guys I've talked to in both seats express an interest in various majors, I think even the first officers could be competitive with thousands of hours in narrow and wide bodies flying to all corners of the globe vs. a guy pushing an RJ up and down the eastern seaboard all day with competent ATC (not a judgement, I did it for many years). I just know I would be pretty damn entertaining during the "Tell me about a time" questioning.

Anyways, point being you should factor a few hundred or so of them into your potential interviewee pool.

I think the big message is, barring unforeseen economic or military events, a well qualified pilot should have an opportunity to interview at their choice of airline within the next 3-4 years.

UPDATE:
USAA: 600
Frontier: 200ish

So, as far as we can tell from plans, around 3500 will be hired...good, but not great...the last major hiring boom I remember is 2007...anyone know the approximate # hired at that time?