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Old 11-25-2013, 06:52 PM
  #11  
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Do you have any Kalitta Air data?
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Old 11-26-2013, 01:44 PM
  #12  
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Pilot
The Skywest forecast links to Republic.
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Old 11-26-2013, 05:57 PM
  #13  
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Thank you for that, those corrections have been made. Kalitta has also been included.

Complete Kalitta Air LLC Analysis - Audries Aircraft Analysis

A pilot demand analysis hasn't been done for Hawaiian, Atlas or some of the others and can't be until I can get some retirement figures for those airlines. If anyone has them feel free to send them my way. The good news is the site still has the Bureau of Transportation Statistics for them.
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:04 AM
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I just wanted to show an example of the kind of analysis pilots can do when they look at this data.

For example lets say we want to look at Pilot Expense for the 757-200 at United verse Delta Air Lines. Pilot Expense at the (BTS) includes chief pilots, line pilots, reserve pilots, and check airmen.

By going to the Complete Analysis page and scrolling to the very bottom is a report that allows us to explore the Fleet specific numbers. That presents us with a page that has all of the recorded aircraft by the BTS the airline has flown in the last 20 years. Just select one and that takes us to more generic fleet numbers. Finally we drill down into the Flight Ops tab that is located underneath the explanation of definitions for that page which takes us to the following pages for Delta and United.

Delta Boeing 757-200 Flight Ops Expense

United Boeing 757-200 Flight Ops Expense

Users can notice that the "Pilot" cost per Block hour was 612$ per hour for Delta and 442$ per hour for United. (Note this was still under Bankruptcy Contract since it is 2012 numbers) Another interesting note is that Fuel Cost per block hour was 3,212$ for Delta and 3,452$ for United. Interestingly the fuel savings makes up for the Pilot Cost.
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Old 12-06-2013, 02:30 PM
  #15  
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I'm not sure what's up with Spirit but is it current/accurate? Everything pilot hiring wise/seniority seems way off?
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Old 12-06-2013, 02:53 PM
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Is there any way to compare a type aircraft operated by several airlines in one chart? Such as fuel burn per block hour for all A320 operators, or pilot costs per hour for all 737 operators?
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Old 12-07-2013, 05:51 AM
  #17  
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Joey,
The Pilot Demand projection for Spirit Airlines should be pretty accurate as of its last update. There is a glitch in the 2021 year, but it doesn't have a big effect.

Spirit is projected to experience more seniority movement than any of the carriers. This is a result of Spirits size and growth plans. When an airline is small, one additional airplane represents a greater percent increase in fleet size. So in other words an airline that only has 50 airplanes could feasibly double in size to 100 without much problem. If an airline doubles in size in say three years then the pilots who are on the front of that wave can expect a three year upgrade.

A major which has over 700-800 airplanes may experience a growth of an additional 50 airplanes but this represents a much smaller movement in Seniority for those pilots because of the total size. Also, because of that starting size of 700-800 airplanes the chances of the Major doubling in size is pretty small.

From a Seniority progression standpoint growth is almost always better than attrition. For example even though Delta may need 600 pilots/year in the future due to attrition it represents only a small fraction of the total pilots resulting in a smaller increase in Seniority. Airlines that are in the growth phase likely will see a doubling and tripling in size over a timeline resulting in huge Seniority gains. For example when the regional's doubled in size in the early 2000's they experienced 2 year upgrades because they were doubling in size every 2-3 years!

Flyby,
Yup that could be done, it just takes some work.
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Old 12-07-2013, 12:35 PM
  #18  
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Got it!, thanks for the detailed explanation
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Old 12-09-2013, 03:43 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by PilotAnalyst View Post
Joey,
The Pilot Demand projection for Spirit Airlines should be pretty accurate as of its last update. There is a glitch in the 2021 year, but it doesn't have a big effect.

Spirit is projected to experience more seniority movement than any of the carriers. This is a result of Spirits size and growth plans. When an airline is small, one additional airplane represents a greater percent increase in fleet size. So in other words an airline that only has 50 airplanes could feasibly double in size to 100 without much problem. If an airline doubles in size in say three years then the pilots who are on the front of that wave can expect a three year upgrade.

A major which has over 700-800 airplanes may experience a growth of an additional 50 airplanes but this represents a much smaller movement in Seniority for those pilots because of the total size. Also, because of that starting size of 700-800 airplanes the chances of the Major doubling in size is pretty small.

From a Seniority progression standpoint growth is almost always better than attrition. For example even though Delta may need 600 pilots/year in the future due to attrition it represents only a small fraction of the total pilots resulting in a smaller increase in Seniority. Airlines that are in the growth phase likely will see a doubling and tripling in size over a timeline resulting in huge Seniority gains. For example when the regional's doubled in size in the early 2000's they experienced 2 year upgrades because they were doubling in size every 2-3 years!

Flyby,
Yup that could be done, it just takes some work.
Thanks, that answered my question too!
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Old 12-14-2013, 03:31 AM
  #20  
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would love to get more detail about Hawaiian.. with all of their aggressive growth plans, and A321 Neo' order, there isn't much detail.

I heard they're retiring an average of 20 pilots per year for the next 10 years if that helps.
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