EdGrimley

I’m trying to wrap my brain around Delta’s plans for the PNW. This thread is an attempt to piece together Delta’s master plan for Seattle and how that plan might be achieved.

Let’s be respectful and keep the Alaska bashing to a minimum. Most of those guys, just like Delta pilots, are good people. Wishing ill (beyond friendly banter) on any pilot group is in bad taste.

Based upon the following information:

1. Delta had 30 daily flights that compete with Alaska out of SEA in 2012
2. Delta plans a total of 148 daily flights out of SEA by the end of 2014
3. Delta plans a total of 300 daily flights out of SEA by 2017

How is this achieved?

1. Rumors have circulated that SEA doesn't have enough gate space for such a large expansion. Where will the gate space come from to increase 30 daily flights to 300?
2. How many of the increased flights will be international?
3. How many of the increased flights will be performed by “DCI” RJ’s and how many mainline?
4. If a large portion of the flights end up being on Delta mainline, what airframe that Delta currently operates (or is available in that time frame) makes the most sense?
5. Can this number of airplanes simply be flowed through SEA or would that volume of flying in SEA more appropriately be handled by opening a new category for SEA?
6. What airframe makes the most sense if a new category is opened in SEA (i.e. 717, 737, A320)?
7. Can more 757’s fill the gap without needing to add a new category? Or maybe a combination of more 757’s originating out of SEA and flowing 737/717’s up from LAX for example.
8. How many of the 10 A330’s on order will be added to the SEA base? Will this decrease 7ER flying?
9. On a competitive basis, if Alaska currently has 242 daily flights (roughly half of those flights are 737’s and the other half RJ’s/Dash 8’s…can someone confirm this?) out of SEA, what is their likely response: A. utilize their lower cost structure to provide lower fares. B. Move more of their assets to other markets (i.e. SLC, California, ?) C. Up their customer service to outshine Delta to retain their customers. D. Offer more frequent flyer rewards on their metal and others such as British Airways, Emirates, etc. E. Greatly expand the American code share (which ironically is what they didn't want to do with Delta) G. All the above. Any other ideas?

Any other rumors, comments, speculations or ideas?

sailingfun

I am not quite sure where the SEA flight numbers you listed came from. 300 flights is a huge number I have not heard. This is what management has put out in guidance on SEA.

By this summer, Delta will offer 79 daily flights to 25 destinations from Seattle, doubling its current service.
By summer 2015, Delta plans to offer 110 daily flights.
By 2016, 125.
By 2017, 150-plus.

gzsg

Asked the gate question of management. The direct response, Delta will have all of the A and B terminals plus the south satellite. Done deal.

Spudhauler

The rumblings I've heard are that Delta wants the same number of gates as Alaska has now. Move international to A with dedicated customs, use S and B for domestic and have a ramp from S to A to create more convenience for customers rather than connecting via the train. As far as Alaska goes, I'm not sure what their response will be. Lowering fares will only hurt their revenues, so I'd imagine they'll focus on their customer service and ties with other carriers. Delta certainly seems to be asserting themselves in the market; I live here and see ads on city busses, hear ads on local radio, and see signage throughout the terminal. A bit of a different tack than the Mullin days!

Packrat

That would do it.

Moose

So Delta is kicking SWA out of the B Terminal. I'm not so sure.

Denny Crane

Had MM (the guy from New York) come up to the cockpit a week or so ago. I asked him about the gate space issue. His response was we will have/acquire enough gate space for our projected growth thru the end of 2015. For our growth plans beyond that, we need to some how get more gates. He gave me some numbers but I don't remember them. I do know it's not as many gates as has been talked about on this forum.

Denny

Whidbey

Great. Just what I need, another place on the internet to fret over in my daily obsession regarding "When will I be able to hold Seattle?"

I was hired at the middle of the 2010 pack and follow discussions on here and over on airliners pretty closely. Ed asks all the pertinent questions, but I think the one the one that is the biggest road block (that Sailing refers to whenever this topic comes up) is our lack of gates.

I've heard as many merger/buyout rumors from my SWA buddies as I have folks at Delta. I won't go as far as saying that is the direction this is headed, but Alaska has a great deal that SWA would love to have (Hawaii). Wouldn't be the first time SWA has absorbed a major competitor of Delta's.

As far as us kicking SWA out of Seattle, Moose raises a valid question.

I think the challenge that Delta poses to Alaska is fundamentally different than domestic challenges they've faced before. Alaska was able to fend off SWA with help from the airport folks in form fee advantages (if I'm not mistaken, which I likely am).

Delta isn't just stepping in to offer domestic competition, but they are also offering the people of Seattle a large international hub (and are probably willing to pour a great deal of money into new facilities like they did in NYC).

I think this will make it harder for the powers that be in Seattle to outright favor Alaska... A large construction project and the jobs in Seattle will go a long way towards not being seeing as a hostile foreign invader to our beloved PNW.

One other thought that gets mentioned online... the idea that the SWA (airtran) pullback in ATL is no mistake, and that Delta and SWA have been coordinating their actions via indirect forms of communication. Yeah, it would be illegal for them to directly coordinate but there seems to be a bit of smoke here...

forgot to bid

What we're going to do is have Southwest go to the government and confiscate the SEA gates, then merge with Alaskan, then we acquire the gates and have SWA pay for them.

forgot to bid

indirect forms of communication