Something like that.

Which airlines?[/QUOTE]

Lucky Air in Kunming is hiring qualified 737 FOs. Hainan is looking for A-320 or B-737 FOs. I have heard China Eastern is looking at hiring some FOs and as always Yangtze River has hired FOs in the past. There are several Business Jet operators who have hired in the past. If you can get hired at a US Major, I recommend that over coming here to China but if you are looking for a short term most hire based upon a 3 year contract.

You haven't failed until you try. Hearing is not that big of a deal here, the bigger issues are difficult blood/urine tests which evaluate over 30 criteria. Heart related issues like BP, EKG, pulse rate and treadmill stress test. Another big player is kidney stones or gall bladder sludge. If you have the time/patience you have a chance at a great Falcon Jet job and a commuting contract. If you want stability and security then don't come here but the reward might pay off handsomely if your willing to take some risk.

No pilot shortage will happen. The planes will get bigger, and customers will have to drive to the hub. Fares will be outrageous, and if the unions can get their acts together, the old pay will return.

It is also impacting the smaller corporate operators that require an ATP as part of an SMS or internal policy. The requirement to take the ATP "prep" course before getting an ATP that is.The Fortune 100 operators never have a problem attracting top tier applicants (much like the majors, there's no shortage there). Corporate job postings are gradually shifting from "required" to "preferred" (e.g. type rating, 1000 hrs in type, etc.) Everyone is fighting for the same available candidates right now.

Not just that, they also evaporated an airline and told 2000 pilots to go pound sand...

Many wound up overseas rather than go back to $20/hour.

I don't think that Delta is going to experience a shortage.

Two weeks ago I spoke with one of our new hires, who had just left United. It could get tricky at the FFD carriers, who cannot fill their classes.

ETD is DOA.

This is a process, and not a fast one. The current status as I see it:

The U.S. is producing new pilots for domestic consumption at a negligible rate. Embry Riddle and Flight Safety International are over 90% foreign pilots with commitments overseas. They have money and buy luxury apartments while in training, so they have U.S. addresses on their licenses, and the FAA reports they are licensing U.S. residents, but they aren't going to U.S. airlines. U.S. schools will be graduating only a hundreds of American commercial pilots every year for many years, based on current enrollment.

Young Americans are not entering flight training, they consider the career undesirable, and doomed to obsolescence due to automation and technology. The FAA recently released a statement that this would not happen soon, which came across as assuring young people it would happen, probably later during their peak earning years. There will not be a surge of new American pilots, or a surge of foreign pilots taking pay cuts to come here.

U.S. major airlines are hiring 4000+ pilots per year (Boeing forecasts 4,500/yr), mostly from the regionals. That number is supposed to be going up according to the airlines. The regionals have around 16,000-18,000 pilots, it won't take long for this hiring to decimate them, and the U.S. domestic airline networks they fly the majority of.

Regional airlines are in a shortage, are cutting routes and parking airplanes due to lack of pilots.

U.S. business aviation has over 13,000 jets on order. Their pilots have been stagnated as long as the majors, they are approaching normal retirement age. They will need a lot of pilots, especially if they see scheduled airline service cut back in this country. Some estimates (NBAA and Bureau of Labor Statistics) show business aviation hiring more pilots than the airlines over the next ten years. Maybe not, but it will be significant.

All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.

So the question is not "will it happen", it is already happening, but how painful will it be and who will win and who will lose?

Scottm, try not to confuse the issue with the facts. Those that believe there will never be a shortage can't handle the facts.

?

Define "shortage" ?