Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 1708383)
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Define "shortage" ? |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 1708383)
?
Define "shortage" ? Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit. |
Originally Posted by scottm
(Post 1708409)
Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.
Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit. As much as I would like to rejoice in a true "shortage" I'm not sure that is the best for pilots as well going forward. If it results in regionals increasing pay and luring young blood into the profession, then that would be good.... if it means an ever decreasing ability for the majors to feed what they want to operate as a mainline system, that may not turn out so well. Great posts though. JMHO |
Originally Posted by scottm
(Post 1708409)
Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.
Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit. The new rules, however, do change the equation for everyone. Too much is being made of the new 1500 hour rule by itself. Remember, back in the day, we all had to work as CFI's to get our time up to 1500 hours to get a regional job. That will happen again, and that's the easy part--you won't have to buy the hours past 250 if you don't want to. What has changed are the other requirements to get the job (Level D sim training, etc.), and the overall cost of learning how to fly. None of us can dispute the disincentive to pursue a professional career with such uncertain odds of success (defined as making it to a major). Another oft-forgotten issue is the fact that captain candidates need to log 1,000 hours of right seat time at a 121 carrier now before upgrading. That will decimate smaller carriers down the road, and probably end the Essential Air Service (EAS) program. It will also likely make it extremely difficult to start a new airline. The shortage is most definitely here. One need only spend a few minutes talking to regional airline managers and recruiters to realize that. The majors themselves will not hurt for pilots for several years, but by then the damage will be done: most of their feed for long-haul domestic and international flights comes from Class D airports that are primarily served by regional carriers...that, as has been pointed out, are already reducing service. Some smaller towns will indeed lose service, and that is capitalism working at its finest. If the demand is not there, the service won't be either. There are a number of options for addressing this, but as yet, nobody has been willing to take the necessary steps. Whoever does it first will win. |
Originally Posted by scottm
(Post 1708371)
All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery. The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American. |
Originally Posted by Westen
(Post 1708536)
Where did you get this data?
The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American. |
Originally Posted by OnCenterline
(Post 1708502)
This is not totally accurate. The capacity discipline being currently practiced is only in part due to a lack of pilots, and is only true at the regionals, not at the majors.
There are no CBAs that limit mainline growth, even pilots seem to have forgotten that mainlines can fly small jets. Some mainline pilots will fly them cheaper than the regionals now. The majors are milking the last of the money out of the regionals, before regional costs spike in a tightening labor market. For mainline executives, the best thing about watching their low-cost competitors shrink, will be all the seasoned airline employees on the street looking for work. That and empty gates and slots, idle equipment and airport space, and a drop in jet-fuel demand. Mainline costs will go down, even if they have to offer signing bonuses to pilots. This gift will just keep on giving. |
Originally Posted by Westen
(Post 1708536)
Where did you get this data?
The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American. |
I called ERAU, Flight Safety, and ATP. They don't track where their graduates go to work but the combined estimate was that they're producing about 1000 pilots per year that would stay in the U.S. Majors are hiring 2500+ this year and the trend is for even greater hiring.
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Originally Posted by OnCenterline
(Post 1708718)
I work at United, and half of our pilots will retire in the next 10 years.
Originally Posted by scottm
(Post 1708765)
The majors have few pilots under 50, very few. Nearly all will retire within 15 years, most during the next 5 to 15 years. That is the ten-years we haven't gotten to, that I refer to. By then the majors will have hired a lot of regional pilots, but the ones they are currently hiring aren't young. We may see a lull in hiring within the next few years, another spike in the heart of pilots in training, already fearful of the next round of stagnation.
One thing people arent considering is that the regionals wont ever be able to be what they once were. The new hiring standards have made it that way. This will ultimately shift that flying back to mainline, DAL is already doing it with the 717's, airbus's and md88/90's. There likely wont be any big pushes for bigger planes at the regionals like there once was, the regionals just cant staff them looking into the near future. |
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