Holding pattern on Delta
 

Let me throw this out there to get the board's feedback.

I'm in a holding pattern on Delta.

Let me explain. These are some possible scenarios and concerns that I see from best to worst: (you know us pilots and scenarios)

1- Delta emerges as a stand alone carrier and succeeds. (A la Continental.) This is the most desired situation. I believe it is possible. However, I don't necessarily have confidence in Gerry nor the Board. I have asked some Delta people if they trust Gerry. I get mixed responses. Looking at the past performance of the leadership team (Gerry included), the possibility for failure could be just one more mistake away. I hate to say that, but I read and hear it in Gerry's messages. Delta is lacking someone with founder C.E. Woolman's character and integrity. Mainly, integrity. I think the trust needs to be restored from the top to the front line. It is too early for me to discern if that is possible with this leadership team.

2- Merger and furlough: IF and a big IF there is a merger, the bottom guys risk being on the street. I see it a bit irresponsible at this time to risk my current (modest and secure) living for a chance at a better and more fruitful living. When I look at the risks and benefits of getting hired at Delta right now, the risks seem large to me.

3- Liquidation of Delta. (Everyone is screwed.) I do not think the possibility for this scenarios is very likely. However, it still exists. I'm rather secure where I am for the time being to maintain a job flying. To be honest, I cannot afford to be a new hire F/O anywhere for more than two years without major change. Let alone at someplace that would hire after a whole airline worth of pilots is on the job search.

Alright, y'all... go for it.

If the geography is good for you, either scenario 1) or 2) would probably be tenable...any furloughed airline pilot can get some sort of work making a decent income. Sales, real-estate, and construction have low entry-barriers even if you have no specific non-aviation skills.

I suspect that US Airways would manage a merger so as to avoid furloughs...they are going to lose a SH*LOAD of legacy USA pilots in the near future (age 60) and will need the bodies. Even age 65 won't change this too much.

Future
 

If only we all had a crystal ball.:rolleyes: The future most likely will be something you never thought of.

SkyHigh

I think that the USAir scenario ( which is looking less likely as time passes) would be a worst case for the Delta pilot group, as well as for the combined airline. My guess is that redundancies would cause furloughs numbering near 1000 (despite what Parker says). Sure, the USAir guys would be retiring in a few years, but by then, the whole airline might be gone.

It seems to me that the USAir/ Delta combination, after the necessary asset divesture, would have a route structure very similar to Delta's route network now, but would have a debt burden greater than the one that pushed Delta into bankruptcy. I don't think that the airline would survive the next recession. Fortunately, it appears that the creditors are beginning to realize this.

More likely, we will see some sort of merger after emerging from bankruptcy. I don't expect rapid growth in the coming years, but anyone getting hired now should have a stable job.

I actually agree with Skyhigh- despite our best guesses, the future in this industry is anybody's guess.

[quote=Woxof;103776]Let me throw this out there to get the board's feedback.

I'm in a holding pattern on Delta.

[quote]

Dude, when God Made C.E. Woolman, he broke the mold. He came close with Herb Keller and Fred Smith, but they too are great men who had a LOT invested with the success of their companies. IMO, Delta will emerge alone, strong, and will be the NEW power player acquiring other smaller companies and more aircraft ... probably like Southwest snatching up every used 73 and 73 production slot they can find.

I'm not privy to insider information, but rather the same tainted public information that you are. Delta will have roughly the same debt load as US Air which will be 1/3rd that of AMR and United. If you have an inside to Delta TAKE IT. Run, don't walk. IF your neighbor will walk your stuff in let 'em. IMO, they are going to hire WELL more than the rumored 200. You heard it hear first, news and film @ 11. I'd be more afraid to take a job at a company with 20B in debt with the "old school" business model. Painful cuts are still ahead for a lot of airlines, but Delta is not one of them. I do believe we are on the cusp of a new age in aviation again ... that is age 65 does not pass. Good luck, all.

Tom

assuming they would even take you:rolleyes:

Wanna hear the latest rumor? Jim Whitehurst was on a shuttle flight yesterday, came to the cockpit and was salivating about B6, (still don`t know why they are called that), their EMB jets, their facilities in BOS, etc. Said it(B6) would be a nice aquisition.(Non ALPA, staple method). We are living in interesting times.

Delta won't liquidate; it is too valuable. The creditors wouldn't even get .02 cents on the dollar.

Ahhhhh, nothing as soothing as the voice of reason.

Tom

hey..thats my bike 2007 KTM525exc...awesome dual-sport...