I just talked to an ex ERAU CFI. Said there are a lot of lifers there. Guys left to the commuters and couldn't do it, came back to ERAU.

 

Ouch. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Salaries | Glassdoor
Money's not everything, but being a CFI for life is not even going to pay your student loans.

 

Also guys who can't get a 1st or 2nd class medical. I know of at least one but have heard there are more.

 

That's also what I thought it was saying. But I disagree with the conclusion. So what if a few tiny markets disappear? It won't be many. So much of the RJ glut is the failed Fred Reid et al model of "the businessman likes frequency!" of hourly flights from every hub by every airline to every city. It was stupid then and its even dumber now. There is still a LOT of slop that can come out of the regional so called "feed" system.

There is also a lot of regional capacity that can be replaced with mainline on a 3 to 1 savings for staffing.

Other than perhaps dinging the 100% completion and on time fantasy metrics, we're no where near a regional pilot supply crunch actually endangering the legacy airlines.

Besides, legacy airlines can ramp up LCC pilot hiring any time they want to. Now THAT could crush more than a few business models out there.

 

That's cool. Just don't hold your breath waiting for legacy collapse because of a regional pilot crunch, cause it ain't gonna happen.

 

United has over 10,000 applications on file. I would imagine Delta, American, Alaska, and Hawaiian are in a very similar state. There is no pilot shortage at the majors nor will there be for a very long time. The regionals are crying because the bar has been raised to the minimum. If starting pay at a regional was $45K and average pay was $85k the regionals would have no staffing issues. A college graduate with a technical degree should not have to collect food stamps for his first 2 years after graduation.
The pipeline of qualified applicants is drying up. There is very little incentive for someone to start training today for an airline job.
Given the current state of this industry, when I am asked, I strongly deter anybody from starting to fly as a career interest. Hobby, absolutely. Business expedience, absolutely. Career, NFW!

 

Most agree it's the same 10,000 applicants to all companies. With 21,000 retirements in the next 10 years they will need more applicants.

 

Many twenty somethings I personally know are busy preparing to buy houses, new cars, and investing in their retirements. I know no one interested in taking flying lessons from this age group, but they always ask me what for? they're not interested in flying for fun unless it pays big money out of the gate.

 

21K pilots. That sounds like the approximate number of regional pilots. If regional airlines disappeared, bringing all of that flying back to mainline, would anyone be upset?

IF a shortage did materialize (that's a big if), there would probably be a few regionals, LCCs, and ULCCs that went out of business due to them not being able to hire pilots at food stamp wages. I don't see a problem here.

Majors that pay good wages won't have problems recruiting pilots. Airlines that can't compete with living wages will go out of business. It sounds like Sun Country (I thought they went out of business years ago) may close its doors because management says that they can't pay their pilots higher wages. Sun Country Airlines owner warns of possible shutdown | Duluth News Tribune
After looking at their pay scales, Sun Country needs to be shut down. And every single pilot there could find a higher paying job somewhere else.

 

This is capitalism at work, shut it down if it will be unsafe or unprofitable. Or raise prices. System works as designed.