Vital Signs

Regional Captain max pay = lower paying job.

Quite self explanatory actually

Vital Signs

Nothing against them....my hats off...they need to be paid WAY more.

minimwage4

EACH major airline will need anywhere from about 250 to 600 pilots a year for the next several years into the 2020s. Do the math. That's most of the regional pilot group. Of course 20 to 30% will stay at their regional including those on year one or two who might not have enough experience. So really the pool of 15 to 18k of regional pilots is even smaller.

CBreezy

Since 2012, only about 9000 ATPs have been added. Considering that regional airlines only required a CMEL for FOs up until that point, the number of issuances from 2012 until 2015 should be ignored as every single regional FO needed to get an ATP.

As min wage pointed out, there are about 18k pilots at the regionals and those 9000 could reasonably be already at the airlines

galaxy flyer

Minwage

So in the next 8-10 years there will no new pilot starts? I doubt that very much.

GF

Chuck D

A few assumptions seem to be made often in this thread regarding the impossibility of finding enough pilots ever again...

1) "The low supply of candidates over the past few years is a trend that will continue no matter what." Countered by some of the new programs that have been kicking in at several airlines (flow-thrus or pref interviews, ab-initios, etc - jetBlue, United, F9 and others are all making substantial changes in how they source at least some of their pilots)

2) "Miserable regional wages" - though still inadequate, or even miserable at some places, they're rising significantly at several regionals... those that don't match risk dying on the vine. Equally, a steady reduction of 50 seaters and the addition of E-190s at majors, small Boeings and C-Series mean that the percentage of well paying (or better paying) jobs at airlines is increasing significantly and total need for pilots required to move the same number of pax drops.

3) "1500 hours is some sort of insurmountable hurdle in seeking the job" - In the past 15 years for example, although there have been stretches while the regionals expanded where 350 hours could get you the job at a few places, there have also been substantial periods where 1500-3000 hours as a CFI just might get you a call from a few regionals if you were lucky.

I just don't think this is an unsolvable problem.

Sliceback

"1) "The low supply of candidates over the past few years is a trend that will continue no matter what." Countered by some of the new programs that have been kicking in at several airlines (flow-thrus or pref interviews, ab-initios, etc - jetBlue, United, F9 and others are all making substantial changes in how they source at least some of their pilots)"

If they're grabbing the candidates that were going to become pilots anyway the net increase in supply for the overall industry is zero.

NuGuy

I don't think you can attribute a large portion of the ATP issuances to foreign pilots. There's no need for them to stick around for anything past CSMEL. Even if they are building time, the US ATP process is significantly different enough to not bother with, since they need to get a ticket in their home country.

The number of "recreational ATPs" (someone out to just get the ticket, with no intention of flying professionally) probably has dropped significantly due to the new rules, and that needs to be factored in as well.

Nu

atpcliff

The cost gap between flight training costs and median family income has been growing for years...shrinking middle class...1% sucking up all the money and wealth in the U.S.

Numbers of student starts and licensing of (US citizens or legal residents) is WAY down. Foreign pilot students, without the right to work in the US, have increased dramtically.

bozobigtop

The only was to see the trees instead of the forest is to repeat after me, many other aviation businesses need pilots as well. Not just an airline. I flew charter and business jets for four years before going to big purple. In fact if I hear big purple whine like a woman one more time about no aircraft feed to smaller cities I am going to scream!
In fact I wonder how many medium and small cities the passengers carriers will need to throw under the bus because it's uneconomical to service the location. I guess you can throw away that piece of the revenue pie along with the service.