Delta and Alaska
 

Is this merger going to happen? When?

thursday @ 10:42 am...

As soon as everyone at DOJ drops dead and there is no one to disallow it.

Seriously, do you really think that they are going to let the biggest airline in the world buy another one and totaly dominate the domestic market? The divestitures required would negate any synergies produced by the NW merger. More like AA or CAL at the outside.

You might want to Q-in RA and the boys. They have a totally different take on this than you do.

I'm sure that they have a lot of totally different takes on many subjects, however, that doesn't mean that they are always right on their takes. These guys aren't messiahs on the same level as the Prez!

And you aren't the only one with contacts around this place or the govt either!:D

I have to agree with ACL here. Working out of ANC, I can assure you there is a lot more to this rumour.

I doubt you see anything happen until after the SOC is completed. After that however, I expect things to get interesting. Alaska would provide us with immediate mainline lift out west with a mature route and hub network. Since we want to expand our western presence and provide feed for western int'l flying this would be a win-win. The same rational used to defend the NWA merger (growing an asian presence on our own would have taken 20 years to do - Alaska would instantly do what would take at least a decade to accomplish) would be used here.

With this economy, I am sure that anything is possible. Once again there is little to no route overlap. That is a good thing.
Also, and a very important point. If we at DAL are able to not involuntary furlough/layoff anyone in this economic time,( or minimal layoffs) then we hold a lot of credibility to the regulators come time to sell them on this one. (The Sell is already going on FWIW)
I see DAL achieving this. I also know that there is a lot of backwater working being done with this. You will see things start to take shape this time next year.

Heyas,

Agree with ACL. ALK + (DAL + NWA) = almost zero overlap, and what is to be seen as an improvement in service all around.

With the markets the way they are, and consolidation would sure to be seen as a good thing.

This won't even raise an eyebrow at the DOJ. Rubber stamped. Write your checks to the merger committee.

Nu

OK, granted that this is a possibility and could very easily happen, but it's not going to be a cake walk. Every airline from American to VA is going to be screaming bloody murder over it. It will not be an easy rubber stamp like the last one was.

Ugh, another SLI!:( I know the only have 1500ish pilots and 737s, but that's still more guys in front of me. I need them BELOW ME!!!:(

Well it will be good for the gander. I would not be surprised in the least if there was a moat dug around the wide body flying.

I would be surprised if RA agreed to any long fence, he doesn't like them after seeing the aftermath of a 20 year fence at NW/REP.

I find it incredible that we're hearing yet another DAL merger rumor not even a year after the worlds largest airline merger was announced. Then again, the path this airline is taking seems to be along the lines of agressive growth, not buy and sell the assets off. That being said, im a concerned hard working NW ramp rat who fears his job may be outsourced to RHS before I can get my hands on a right-seat job in a few years. Ive counted on being able to say "ive been with this company on the ramp for X years, and I would love to continue my career as a pilot here" in an interview.

back on topic.. I believe this will happen. Personally, by the time we see 2020 im think the only airlines around in America will be Delta, American, Southwest, United, and MAYBE Continental. Of course they'll have their regional feeders and a few start-up LCCs may exist, but I think theres gonna be a few big airlines. Thats how it has to be, i think. After the SOC DL will buy Alaska, move on to a price war with AirTran who, weakened by the price war, will get eaten alive by Southwest. Perhaps DL will make a move for JetBlue, but i doubt the government will allow that one.

The combined DAL and NWA does not dominate the domestic market. That title goes to Southwest. SWA is still bigger (domestically) than the new DAL. Alaska doesn't even rank in the top ten carriers. So, if DAL were to buy Alaska, it doesn't mean that DAL would be overwhelmingly big in the domestic market.

Source: BTS | November 2008 Airline Traffic Data: System Traffic Down 12.8 Percent in November from 2007 and Down 3.5 Percent for January-to-November

I just wonder how long its going to be before DAL merges with the combined Air France and KLM?

Things that make you go hmmmmm...

-Fatty

That won't happen until UAL announces to the government that it will file and be tango uniform. As long as the capital markets remain tight there is no way to find the financing to restructure in bankruptcy. We had the financing in part because it was the easiest credit market in history. Anyone who goes now will most likely be forced into liquidation. Frontier has not come out and they most likely won't if credit remains tight.

Faced with a UAL becoming liquidated, Obama's administration will most likely not allow his hometown airline to dissolve and thousands of additional employees hit the street. Certainly not when we are bailing out the auto makers. Lufthansa will make a pitch that if cabotage is relaxed they will buy up "the toxic assets" and protect hubs and jobs. And that is how in my opinion cabotage will be relaxed and foreign ownership will occur. Then the gates will be open. I hope this does not come to pass however.

Alaska has always maintained they have zero interest in a merger and would fight any takeover attempt. Until last week! Now they say a merger might make sense. I would expect Delta to complete the current merger before taking on another one. Look for a official annoucement of a buyout of Alaska in the summer of 10.

Timing sounds about perfect.

So, do chicks really dig the double-breasted suits?

My wife does. She looks great in the hat as well!

My wife went as one for Halloween. She likes it too. I still think it is the best uniform out there.

Another merger announcement could be good, summer '10 hu? If big D were serious they may not be able to get another merger approved if they have pilots on the street. Maybe we can hold off on the furloughs till after summer '10. Anything that helps me keep my job closer to when the old guys have to leave is fine by me. I'm not really worried about my job after Dec. 2012, its just the next 3.5+ years that worry me.

DAL4EVER - That won't happen until UAL announces to the government that it will file and be tango uniform. Lufthansa will make a pitch that if cabotage is relaxed they will buy up "the toxic assets"

It must be really nice to know the future.

Perhaps I am out of touch with reality. Please explain exactly why you see United having to file for BK. Have United's results for the last several quarters been that far out of line with the other legacy carrier's? Maybe it is the "toxic assets" that will bring them down. Can you describe those assest in detail?

Prepared for enlightenment.

Continue to hold then. I'm not a prognosticator just stating an opinion. UAL has and is burning through more cash than any other legacy carrier right now. They have horrendous employee relations and seem to be thoroughly ticking the passengers off. From a cash standpoint, UAL and LCC will be the first to declare if things don't change. I hope they don't. I've been through one BK and its horrible for all parties involved. Someone brought up when they thought cabotage would occur and I stated my opinion. An LCC failure while tragic may not have the catastrophic consequences from a legislator standpoint that a UAL one would. And again, UAL is from Obama's hometown. I seriously doubt after championing the losses of good paying jobs, the new administration would sit idly by and do nothing. A bailout may not happen. The next logical step would be a buyout by LH.

Oh and your toxic assets have an initial - GT and his crew.

Nice answer. I agree that GT could be considered toxic.

As for burning through the cash... Not so sure that United is that far off when it comes to the other trunk airlines. Also, I do see my fair share of passengers at 85 hours a month and can tell you that with very few exceptions most seem very content.

As for Obama stepping up to help if needed - I find that highly improbable.

I wouldn't be surprised to see something aligned with LH. It seems this has long been a goal of United's board + GT.

My apologies if I seemed snide or blunt. I just get sick of people bashing United. It seems to be a theme on these board.

Frats

No sweat. I have numerous friends at UAL and the majority of them are going into their second furlough. My frustration, shared more passionately by UAL employees, is the complete and utter failure of the Board at UAL to demand that Tilton and crew run the company. It seems that Tilton felt that gutting employee contracts during BK was the cure-all. Not tackling the mountain of debt they had incurred. They didn't use BK to constructively try and figure out what routes worked and what didn't. (At DAL, we are blessed with Hauenstein and Cortelyou who completely revamped our network.) Finally, I believe Tilton's sole hope was to lean the company out for hopes of a merger and he could cash out. When that never materialized you see the ship drifting with no rudder. UAL arguably had the best network and brand recognition of any U.S. carrier yet management completely urinated it away. I wish you all luck there.

I think the widget will look better on their tail than that picture of Moammar Khadaffi.

Carl

Now that is a good one. I had a good laugh at that one! Keep em coming

I think you have been around long enough to know that its Frank Lorenzo's mother on the tail, not Khadaffi.

I thought it was Bob Marley.

Is that who it is? I thought it was my ex-....

Nu

I heard that it was the #1 flight attendant at (insert airline name here.)

They always said there was no interest, but you get one of the major holders out on the green and you find out they've been up for sale for awhile.

Think it will be a stronger code share agreement. Is a perfect fit for the DAL/NWA system. But with Alaska having the best cast/revenue ratio I doubt they sell, but join in and link to the international. NWA is second best cash/revenue. Would be odd for DAL to merge into the two cash strongest airlines when DAL is the 2nd or 3rd worst cash/revenue airline. Oh yea, DAL owns the printing machine to print stock to make mergers happen. DAL will be getting her hands on NWA piggy bank at S.O.C. :cool:

Sounds like it might be time to restart this thread...

You just beat me to it...

Why???? Getting bored and need somehting to talk about?

Nope. There's plenty going on at DAL to talk about...and it looks like AS is next.;)

FL410, check the "latest and greates with Delta" thread.... You will understand.

I say staple all the Delta guys to the bottom of the list!!

Oh wait, this isn't the Delta/NWA discussion any more is it? Just saw the new post in the merger section and just figured "it's on"......wait wrong commercial too?

We have been kicking this around in the Delta thread since the JAL issue came to a head. In short, I'm wondering what AS guys are hearing.

Who is on the Alaska board and would they be interested in the current environment?

Is there money for such a deal?

Would the feds buy it?

What would the bidding war look like?

Lots of questions and I have few opinions much less answers.

Ferd
MSP 755 Delta Dude