Fleet Plans
 

Anybody got a clue on fleet plans for Mesa? Have they said anything firm about their United contracts yet?

Nope and nope

Rumors are in order of my opinion on accuracy:
Drop CRJ 200 type from the certificate
Add 737 cargo ops
Lose some CRJ900 from the CPA on American side
Replace CRJ 700 in IAD with E170
Lease 700s to GoJet as 550s
Purchase Compass
Denver base eventually for 700s maybe as 550 or straight 700s but that worked require United alpa to give on scope.

Correction. It’s purchase Commutair not compass.

You have to ask yourself why are two former SKW INC guys at Mesa now? It’s time for consolidation in the regional market.

Good luck

2... try 3 now!! Mesa wants SkyWest secret.. except most those guys haven't been at OO in 5 plus years..

We are currently training all iad Fa on the ejet and they are Beijing told a 175 base is coming in IAD.

I heard BH (Uncle Rico) is there now. I wouldn't expect anything good to come from that. He has to be the dumbest person to ever reach a top tier management position in airline history.

What they are told and what happens are 2 different things.

Well BR left in the dark of the night from you know where. That was not good. IMO it had to do with a purchase of an asset that was not represented correctly.

Who was the third?

That’s means absolutely NOTHING. Just a rumor mill.

Should start a rumor that pilots are getting ETOPS training. That'll start a nice $hitshow on the webz

UA eventually wants the 550 in IAD. MESA has a shot if they want it.

Funny thing is no rumors I hear involve us getting 550s, speculation yes but no rumors.

That’s good news!!!

Actually it in the works

Excellent!

I heard your 700s are leaving Mesa. And United wants you to fly more E175s to replace them.

That’s what I’ve heard. I’ll take a 175 type my seniority on that side is significantly higher than on the CRJ.

Now only if United would replace all the 145's with something decent.

Being worked on as we speak 😁

How many CRJ-700’s are available for conversion, and how many 550’s is United wanting? As the current 50 seat jets age out there aren’t really that many replacements out there or any real chance of new 50 seat jets being produced. They are going to become obsolete like the B1900 and Saab 340. Scope is maxed out, so a CRJ-700 has to be pulled for conversion before a replacement 70 seat jet can turn a wheel in revenue service. It should be interesting to watch. My guess is that in the next 5-10 years the regionals will park the vast majority of the 50 seat jets and cover the thin markets with the existing 70-76 seat jets, and United will have had to acquire more small 737’s/319’s, or order 100 seat mainline jets to cover the rest.

50 seat jets are not going anywhere.

Not right now they’re not, but there are a bunch of 145’s and CRJ-200’s that are getting pretty old. Not trying to pick a legacy/regional fight, but what will they be replaced with? I’m actually interested in other people’s opinions (not flame throwing trolls). Scope is maxed out and there are only so many CRJ-700’s available for conversion. United has a bunch of 50 seat jets operating that will need to be replaced in the not too distance future. With scope what it is, what are the options? Embraer is pushing the 170/175 line and not really selling new 145’s, the E2 jets are too heavy, customers prefer larger planes, United is pushing 2 class service......

I have read two articles in the past month or so, one talking about United and the CRJ-550 and it being a short term (less than ten year) fix, the other about Delta and their plan to eliminate 50 seaters from their fleet. They are adding small narrow bodies to mainline with the 220, which was a Bombardier product.

But there really are no good options for a 50 seat aircraft and by the time one is created (if) there might not be enough of a market for it.

Even the new Embraer 170-E2 doesn’t fit scope of most or all of the big three and neither does MRJ so they are unlikely to try and down scale them to 50 seat because the cost to do so and end product will be too expensive.

I actually see a very real chance of the Embraer E-2 series being operated independent of CPAs with the biggies. For that matter, at least one legacy exists (Alaska) that has no scope limitations. But more realistically, I see something more like Moxy, freestanding from any existing major with the ability to buy and operate aircraft to fill whatever niche market they desire. And aircraft like the smaller E-2s that have specifically been DESIGNED for that niche will quite likely be more economical than filling it any other way.

Nature (and economics) hates a vacuum. In a niche where a 50 or 60 seater (or an 80 or 90 seater) is right for the market, someone will eventually fill that vacuum.

You hit the nail on the head with your comment about what will they replace them with. That is the problem, no manufacturer has stepped up to the plate with a solid plan to do so. That is why they will be flying as long as humanly possible, or until something comes up to fill the void.

United isn’t the only legacy interested in those 700s Mesa has...

A third party like Moxy can buy anything they want, but unless scope changes, they have nowhere to go. Any flight with United anywhere on the ticket is subject to the scope clause. Trying to go at it alone has been tried before and it didn’t work out. The small jet market is pulling people from small markets to feed big jets serving larger markets. United pilots are firm on scope, and unless United just wants to pay us more, I don’t see a new contract any time soon, so scope remains unchanged.

I agree, but their days are limited, there are a ton of them, and there isn’t a replacement that is compliant with scope restrictions. United talks about growing with larger gauge aircraft. They also say that right now the 100 seat jets aren’t a fit for United. For right now they seem to want to go with used 737’s and 319’s. If that’s the plan, they better find a bunch of them. The new sim building is almost finished, they have added a bunch of instructors, and everything is being put in place to go full speed at TK and train a bunch of pilots. From what I see on this side of the fence is that they are gearing up for a bunch of mainline growth that will take back much of what is covered by the regionals now. Without a replacement for the 50 seat jets, they better start planning how to replace that flying.

Keep in mind the airline industry right now is in a good spot, which can turn on a dime. And the executives of every airline know this. They don't want to shrink regional feed, because that takes away a cushion they may need in the future. Oh sure, you will have shuffling around, but that is normal and comes in cycles.

Don’t want to shrink regional feed?
Regional block hours have been steadily shrinking yoy like clockwork.

Point I am making is having that ace in the hole. Block hours for regional feed are easy to increase. I am talking about infrastructure, and ability to adapt and compete when things take a turn for the worse.

That is the point that ALPA is trying to make with management regarding 100 seat jets. It would give us a better product now, direct control, and a smaller sized aircraft in the fleet to be utilized when the next recession hits. I’d love to see 100+ E195E2’s or A220’s running around like Delta is doing, but so far they say no. They need to pick a path fairly soon. The 50 seat jets still have some life in them, but they are getting tired and the people don’t like them now that the E175 is out there. If I had a choice of buying a ticket on Delta on a E175 or A220 or United on an E145, I’d spend my money on Delta. I did last summer. I bought tickets for vacation on AA over UA to avoid a 2 hr flight in the 145. Those things are miserable.

WHERE are you advocating those 100 seat jets be flown? Regionals and the regional concept needs to go away, not be filled with even larger planes flown for even lower wages.

At United and flown by United pilots. It would create more mainline jobs and make parking the 50 seat jets less difficult. We have a ton of 50 seaters now because scope is working and they have no other option that they wish to take. Buying 100 seat jets would even give Kirby a few more 70 seaters that he wants so bad. The good news for the people in the regionals is more legacy vacancies, the bad news is that more jobs would be eliminated than created by mainline, but such is the nature of the swinging pendulum. Mainline jobs were eliminated to grow the regionals, and now scope will eventually force the elimination of regional jobs to grow mainline.

Why does the regional concept need to go away?

All flying needs to be done at mainline. I wasn’t sure which side itsajob was advocating. Like I said, perpetuating regional flying perpetuates low paid pilots. Regional pilots earn something like 40-50% of what mainline pilots earn when you compare $/passenger, which is roughly how mainline pay is calculated.

So, in your opinion it would be best for major carriers to be flying smaller jets around at a loss, than using a source that actually brings in positive cash flow?

I could care less what’s in the major carriers best interest. I’m a selfish you know what. Pay me what I’m worth. If you honestly don’t understand what’s wrong with these B scale jobs then you need to get your head examined. That or you are a brainwashed SKW shill.