Separate from USAF or stay til 20?
 

An AF buddy of mine just got passed over for Lt Col (first board), I'm helping him flesh out the financial picture of leaving for the airlines now vs fighting the uphill battle to stay in til 20 (which puts him out to 2023 before he's retirement-eligible).

Right now, I'm focused on quantifying the opportunity cost of an extra 6 years at the end of his 121 career vs the value of his military retirement. If he bails now, he's got 30 years of 121 eligibility.

Comments?

Hit the silk...asap. Seniority is life and the hiring environment hasn't been this good in a loooong time.

He should leave AD now.

If he wants to learn the realities of shuffling two jobs, he can join the Reserve or Guard to get 20 yrs.

If he knows he ultimately wants to fly for an airline no matter what, dude needs to make it happen now toward the beginning of the hiring wave, not 6 years from now. That's literally thousands of seniority numbers he'd be giving up. And that's assuming nothing happens in the world between now and then that slows or stops hiring.

And, with ~6 years left, he could easily get to a military retirement via the Reserves. Different paths within the Reserves to get there but he doesn't have to sacrifice the airline seniority # now in the name of a retirement from Uncle Sam.

Similar situation (but Navy)
 

That's something I'm strongly considering myself. I'm leaving AD for the full-time reserves (Navy calls it FTS) to go fly C-130s for 3 years. At the end of that (2020) I'll have 14 years in. I'll continue to follow these threads trying to figure if it makes sense to jump into part-time reserves and try to get hired at that point. Appreciate any advice - thanks

You guys will be financially better off going airlines asap and finishing 20 in the reserves. I don't even need a spreadsheet to figure that out. Risk is of course some black-swan event that brings the economy and airlines to a screeching halt...but typically the military will be looking for numerous peeps to go on orders within a few months of that sort of thing.

6 years until retirement?

I'd separate, get that career airline job, and find a home with the ANG or reserves somewhere.

10 years ago, we asked these same questions, did the spreadsheet analysis, and came to the conclusion that it was pretty much a wash, so long as no furlough or bankruptcy took a large crap on the airline career.

Today, totally different story. Put in the separation papers tomorrow and get AirlineApps all fired up.

If it was me, I'd stay in and get my 20 years as to lock in my pension which is guaranteed income for life. Airline jobs will always be there and can be treated more as a hobby that pays well on top of the military pension. Your friend will be about age 42 if he does the full 20 years in the Air Force, still leaves him with a 23 year career at a major airline when he separates. I know many guys who bypassed doing their 20 years in active duty to take a job with United back in the late 90's, they all regretted it. Who's to say there won't be a major downturn in the economy and history won't repeat itself. We don't know what the future holds but one thing is a fact, the military pension is guaranteed with 20 years. Good luck in whatever path your friend chooses.

As a guy on that same military 2023 timeline, I'd tell him the biggest factor would be QoL after joining a seniority list (a) now, or (b) after six more years of aggressive hiring at every airline.

The BEST advice (already given above)...HAVE BOTH. Join the ARC NOW, get on the seniority list NOW, and laugh all the way to the Bank of Serenity.

I've been separated from Active Duty for 2 years, and been at the airline for 6 mos. For any of my friends near my timeline (2023 retirement), I yell from the mountain tops to sprint away from Active Duty. I would have met the LtC board results that were just published had I stayed in the meat grinder...I thank my lucky stars that I'm not there anymore.

I did not have a crystal ball, I did not know exactly how this whole transition to part-time mil plus airline would turn out. But my story is definitely not unique. Tell you bud that something will shake out. If he stays in as a passed over Maj, he can count on a 365 and maybe a 179 in the remaining six yrs as he has been deemed negative bright and/or shiny.

QoL in the next six yrs and beyond...not even close.

The difference today is that there a huge numbers of mandatory retirements through the 2020's. Delta is fragged to lose ~50% due to mandatory retirements. All the other legacies are in roughly the same boat. Someone who got out today and joined the airlines would be recession proof (seniority of <80%) in a matter of a couple years just due to the looming retirements and not even factoring future growth.

To the OP, you, your friend and I both know that he has an uphill battle to make O-5. If he doesn't, then he will be hoping and praying for continuation to see him to 20 yrs. In the current environment I would say his chances are good for this to happen but there is always the chance that big blue does something really stupid. If he were to be denied continuation, and forced out prior to 20, he will kick himself for the rest of his life for the 2000+ pilots hired in front of him. Go guard/reserves and don't look back.