Separate from USAF or stay til 20?
 

An AF buddy of mine just got passed over for Lt Col (first board), I'm helping him flesh out the financial picture of leaving for the airlines now vs fighting the uphill battle to stay in til 20 (which puts him out to 2023 before he's retirement-eligible).

Right now, I'm focused on quantifying the opportunity cost of an extra 6 years at the end of his 121 career vs the value of his military retirement. If he bails now, he's got 30 years of 121 eligibility.

Comments?

Hit the silk...asap. Seniority is life and the hiring environment hasn't been this good in a loooong time.

He should leave AD now.

If he wants to learn the realities of shuffling two jobs, he can join the Reserve or Guard to get 20 yrs.

If he knows he ultimately wants to fly for an airline no matter what, dude needs to make it happen now toward the beginning of the hiring wave, not 6 years from now. That's literally thousands of seniority numbers he'd be giving up. And that's assuming nothing happens in the world between now and then that slows or stops hiring.

And, with ~6 years left, he could easily get to a military retirement via the Reserves. Different paths within the Reserves to get there but he doesn't have to sacrifice the airline seniority # now in the name of a retirement from Uncle Sam.

Similar situation (but Navy)
 

That's something I'm strongly considering myself. I'm leaving AD for the full-time reserves (Navy calls it FTS) to go fly C-130s for 3 years. At the end of that (2020) I'll have 14 years in. I'll continue to follow these threads trying to figure if it makes sense to jump into part-time reserves and try to get hired at that point. Appreciate any advice - thanks

You guys will be financially better off going airlines asap and finishing 20 in the reserves. I don't even need a spreadsheet to figure that out. Risk is of course some black-swan event that brings the economy and airlines to a screeching halt...but typically the military will be looking for numerous peeps to go on orders within a few months of that sort of thing.

6 years until retirement?

I'd separate, get that career airline job, and find a home with the ANG or reserves somewhere.

10 years ago, we asked these same questions, did the spreadsheet analysis, and came to the conclusion that it was pretty much a wash, so long as no furlough or bankruptcy took a large crap on the airline career.

Today, totally different story. Put in the separation papers tomorrow and get AirlineApps all fired up.

If it was me, I'd stay in and get my 20 years as to lock in my pension which is guaranteed income for life. Airline jobs will always be there and can be treated more as a hobby that pays well on top of the military pension. Your friend will be about age 42 if he does the full 20 years in the Air Force, still leaves him with a 23 year career at a major airline when he separates. I know many guys who bypassed doing their 20 years in active duty to take a job with United back in the late 90's, they all regretted it. Who's to say there won't be a major downturn in the economy and history won't repeat itself. We don't know what the future holds but one thing is a fact, the military pension is guaranteed with 20 years. Good luck in whatever path your friend chooses.

As a guy on that same military 2023 timeline, I'd tell him the biggest factor would be QoL after joining a seniority list (a) now, or (b) after six more years of aggressive hiring at every airline.

The BEST advice (already given above)...HAVE BOTH. Join the ARC NOW, get on the seniority list NOW, and laugh all the way to the Bank of Serenity.

I've been separated from Active Duty for 2 years, and been at the airline for 6 mos. For any of my friends near my timeline (2023 retirement), I yell from the mountain tops to sprint away from Active Duty. I would have met the LtC board results that were just published had I stayed in the meat grinder...I thank my lucky stars that I'm not there anymore.

I did not have a crystal ball, I did not know exactly how this whole transition to part-time mil plus airline would turn out. But my story is definitely not unique. Tell you bud that something will shake out. If he stays in as a passed over Maj, he can count on a 365 and maybe a 179 in the remaining six yrs as he has been deemed negative bright and/or shiny.

QoL in the next six yrs and beyond...not even close.

The difference today is that there a huge numbers of mandatory retirements through the 2020's. Delta is fragged to lose ~50% due to mandatory retirements. All the other legacies are in roughly the same boat. Someone who got out today and joined the airlines would be recession proof (seniority of <80%) in a matter of a couple years just due to the looming retirements and not even factoring future growth.

To the OP, you, your friend and I both know that he has an uphill battle to make O-5. If he doesn't, then he will be hoping and praying for continuation to see him to 20 yrs. In the current environment I would say his chances are good for this to happen but there is always the chance that big blue does something really stupid. If he were to be denied continuation, and forced out prior to 20, he will kick himself for the rest of his life for the 2000+ pilots hired in front of him. Go guard/reserves and don't look back.

Get out now.

Once you hit year 1, drop 5 years of Mil leave to escape the Reserve and relatively lower pay of years 1-3.

Your friend is where I was a few years back. I just retired at 20 as an O4. I had the option to get out in 2007. I decided to stay in, and it was right before the market/housing crash.

Now, though? Good Lord, bail. The military is being held together by spit and masking tape. It's only getting worse and more top heavy.

I'll put this here for your viewing pleasure:

https://www.rand.org/search.html?query=Air+Force+pilot

One of the studies talks about this very thing.

I think this is what you're looking for:

What Will a Year Cost Me? | AviationBull

Comparing a Military Retirement to Starting Early at an Airline | AviationBull

While he attempts a very detailed examination of career earnings, the situation is much more complex as there are so many variables and paths to consider.

One thing he does not consider is a Retired Reserve retirement or an Actuve Duty retirement attained while in the Guard/Reserves. I know three people in my small reserve unit who recently received an active duty retirement while gaining seniority at the airline. Yuge!

More so, he automatically assumes a Guard/Reserve retirement starts at 60 years of age. On paper yes. However the reduced retirement option for those on active duty orders greater than 90 days reduces your retirement date. Everyone in my unit has had their retirement date reduced -- some of them as early as age 55. Mine is age 58 and I've been a slacker in the unit.

Another thing he can't model, you can use 1000 X pay rate to get a realistic airline salary. However he can't forecast windfalls. For example, last year through hard work and using the contract to my advantage, I nearly doubled my previous airline W2 and still made $30k in the reserve. That's not going to happen if you stay on active duty. There is no incentive for working harder in the military as it all pays the same.

In one year I paid off the house and put a nice chunk into mutual funds all while maxing out the 401k.

Get out now. Go to a Guard/Reserve unit near you and enjoy the best of both worlds.

I was passed over to O-5 and subsequently promoted on a supplemental board. It happens but in my particular case there was a provable case of malfeasance on the part of AFPC which probably isn't the norm. While waiting on my supplemental board I spent a year as a passed over major. Once you're passed over to O-5 you become persona non grata. Unless you really are the exception to the rule, you won't be able to get the kind of OPR fodder required to get promoted above the zone. Commanders will lie to you about your chances for promotion since they still want a viable worker bee. Be prepared for stellar positions such as assistant squadron CFC officer and unit Wingman Day vice coordinator.

The airline hiring boom is happening NOW. It won't last forever. It began in 2014 and will probably last about a decade (sans Black Swan, NK nukes the south and all bets are off) -- one year after your bud will retire as a passed over O-4. He can get in on the 1st half of the wave and make captain at DAL in 4 months, or he can get on in year 9 of 10 and sling gear for 20 of his 25 years until mandatory retirement. Why are we even having this discussion?

I'll let others do the heavy lifting on whether sticking it out in the reserves/guard until 20 is smart. I am on check of the month club. Between that and Tricare it's a pretty good deal so I don't scoff at somebody wanting to knock out 20 with 70% of their time done. Perhaps get hired, get off probation, then get an AGR and drop some mil-leave? IDK, I went AD the entire way. Good luck.

Good Lord, is this truth. I had a friend/colleague give the OG/CC a recommendation that I go to Stan/Eval. His response? "He isn't promotable. We need someone in there that can get promoted."

It didn't matter that I was one of the more qualified people.

Currently an O-5, 21 months from starting terminal leave. I've heard if you're close to an active retirement and get out, that'll be a red flag for hiring as they expect you to instantly drop mil leave for active orders. Anyone lately run into this situation? I probably won't do it and just wait for 20 yrs, but damn, leaving right now is sure tempting.

That might be the norm in Fighter Command, but that was not my experience, whatsoever.

Not anymore. The break even point at most airlines is year 2, and at year 3 you start losing money by doing mil over airline.

No personal experience but AlbieF the guy that runs ECIC has said during a recent webinar that hiring has cooled off somewhat for mil pilots that are between 15-19 years. Apparently the airlines are tired of guys getting on a seniority list and immediately dropping mil leave.

I agree 100% but think he was making the point of being really conservative to avoid those on the other side of the fence yelling about silly assumptions. Even by being that conservative and not taking the higher airline pay (what will the next contract cycle raises be???), profit sharing, active duty retirement from the reserves, or reduced retirement age for reserve retirement the airlines still win. That is the point.

I've done some of my own calculations as an add on to his and assuming a modest raise on the next cycle, reasonable upgrade times based on CURRENT upgrade cycles (we all know time to CA will come way down soon if you want to bid it. Look at the last Delta drop), no reduced reserve retirement age, and NO further raises after the next contract cycle I get a difference of closer to $3-5 mil when getting out after 14 years active duty. However there are a fair number of assumptions there and YMMV.

That's based on getting out now? I'd like to see your math if you wouldn't mind sharing. PM if you want.

It's the norm in mobility too, hence why I tell the younger guys to never show their cards about getting out until they put in for separation (you know things are bad when you have LTs talking about the airlines.)

Sorry to hear that. And what a shame. Those squadrons are losing out on a tremendous resource, in many cases.

Showing your cards used to be a one way ticket to the readiness shop, but it has lost a lot of its taboo. There are so many people bailing that if the boss sidelined anyone showing interest in guard/reserves/airlines there would be 60-70% of the squadron doing nothing.

Wasnt mine in mobility. Actually its kind of eye of the beholder thing, not being shiny. I got asked if I "wanted" to do projects and I said no and end of story. Really got to focus on what I wanted to focus on (led in flight hours) as I didnt have to waste time on silly stuff to get promoted.

Being a crusty instructor who wanted to fly/teach was seen as good for everyone.

Dont get me wrong, rather have retired as an O5. But my last several years were much more enjoyable as a passed over O4.

To the original poster, financially, getting out and hired seems like a no brainer. With the option of getting O5 in reserve/guard tossed....kinda wonder why would anyone stay?

As Mike said, unless there was an obvious error, almost no one makes above the zone. The system is not set up for it.

So staying in, you'd really have to want it. I did and have no regrets. But I had some enlisted time so the finish line was closer. And the airlines werent hiring like they are now.

This. How will the final six years play out for the OP's bud, the passed-over Major? 365s and 179s into oblivion. And while watching all his buds get hired @ airlines of their choosing. Staying in after the system is SCREAMING that you are a have-not would be the worst of both worlds.

Get those interview skills sharpened up for the ARC & major airline interview!

**If this dude/dudette is on staff, the ARC can help regain currency. We don't give a **** what you used to fly, as long as you're not a douchebag, we'll pay to get you trained up. It's more a question of "Do we want to go TDY with you for the next 10-20 yrs?" Then current & qualfied is no problem when that major airline calls.

If you're an O-5, it's not quite that easy to get hired in a reserve squadron. That new O-5 will take the Lt Col slot thereby making it difficult for established guys in the squadron to get promoted.

I recently hired an O-5, but it was a very rare exception. Of course, I can't speak for other MWS squadrons.

Unfortunately being passed over in SOF makes your persona non-grata and then some. It's a rare exception anywhere in the AF that this is not the case.

For those earlier in their careers: given the risks involved, unless you get a DP and a school recommendation on your Major board, get out of the AF as soon as possible.

What are your priorities?
 

Stay till 20 with AF or go airlines now? Always an interesting question because the answer reveals what you value. Airline pilots talk in terms of money (seniority and pay) and time off with the goal to work as little as possible for as much pay as possible. In other words the satisfaction of this job is not the job itself but what it allows you to do. Money isn't everything, how many airline pilots are making plenty and still unhappy? I know many AF pilots now flying for the airlines that talk with fondness about their active duty days and what might have been if they stayed in. So I think the decision comes down to what really matters to you...if you value achievement and job satisfaction then maybe you should stay military for now if you enjoy it until you can retire. If you just want to make money and have time to spend it but don't really care about achieving anything then maybe you should jump to airlines. It really comes down to what you value and what you want to do with the finite number of heart beats you will have before you keel over. Btw I'm a 25 yr vet that is extremely content to have completed a career in the AF and now have the opportunity to retire to the airlines with nothing left to prove or accomplish...my answer reveals what I value.

Those IDE-select majors are bailing left and right. I'm one of them. Command isn't at all appealing and the pay/benefits/work-life balance/job satisfaction aren't nearly good enough You'd be a complete moron (and/or a beta) to stay on AD these days.

Don't be too quick to judge. Everyone has different goals.

I know plenty of people that believe you're a moron for working in a union job, where seniority rules, and meritocracy doesn't exist... just to "drive a bus".

To each their own.

I think this is a big thing to consider. As I've gone down my own career change path from management and back to fkyibg, I've talked to former commanders of mine that absolutely loved leading people and the satisfaction it brought. However even for them there comes a time when that satisfaction runs out either due to more promotions and things getting too political for their liking, or just plain being burned out.

The biggest thing they've all said is that they're home with their families more even if they're gone 3-4 days a week some weeks than when they were "home" every night in the later years of their careers. Obviously a passed over major may not be working 12-14 hour days compared to a commander, but just something to consider.

One former commander told me he has found ways to fulfill himself outside of the airline job by volunteering and getting involved in the community.

When looking at it this way, it's a lot to consider, even if the answer seems 99% obvious. You still need to find what will make you tick or you'll go crazy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Airlines provide money, stability (not always historically, but safe enough bet right now), time off, and flexibility.

Plenty of opportunity to do right by the family and still have bandwidth for fulfillment. Want military fulfillment? Plenty of opportunity in the reserves. AC is tapped out, and any RC who wants to play hard can go far. I've managed to become key leadership at an echelon II command, more fulfillment that I really need to be honest. careful what you wish for.

For many, the job satisfaction with the military started declining a long time ago. I'm also surprised to learn that airline pilots don't really care about achieving anything nor do they get any job satisfaction. A lot changed in the 24 years I was in the military...not always for the better. Now I am much happier enjoying my time as an airline pilot where I have a better QoL and get more quality time with my FAMILY. By the way, I'm making less money now as an airline pilot than I did as an active duty Lt Col with the bonus.

Kind of true, but painting with a broad brush.

Live to work, OR work to live?

Almost 2 decades in the airlines now, and most of that was through the lowest/darkest the industry has seen. Times that could sour many of us in this silly little pursuit of flying planes for a living. Going through multiple displacements, downgrades, concessions, a Ch11/furlough/shutdown and starting over.

I like being an airline pilot, but I wouldn't say that airline pilots in general "need" it to feel satisfaction or achievement. Nor care about acheiving anything. That I made it here is enough for me. Al beit, it took way longer than it would have barring 9/11, age 65, 2008 recession, what have you.

Just speaking for myself, I get satisfaction out what this job provides for me OUTSIDE the job. Picking up a new hobby, having the time to spend with friends and family, learning a new skill/language, seeing places I wouldn't see otherwise, and the free transportation from happy hour to happy hour the job provides. All that time I spent IN airplanes trying to achieve this career has freed me up to spend as LITTLE time in airplanes to achieve other things.

There's a couple schools of thought;

"Find a job you love and you'll never work a day in your life", meh.....OR the one a wise old man taught me long ago;

"Keep you job separate from your passions and hobbies and you'll be happier".

I conform to the latter, and work to live.

Other's mileage may vary.....

I'm just curious, why would you do that when there are plenty of airline jobs that pay far more than O5? Unless you are on first year pay?

Great question. I'm currently at an airline with a contract that is not competitive in this market. Applications are out along with most of my peers at this company.