rickair7777

Tough call, personally I'd lean to airlines for the long game.

You can finish out in the guard/reserve and get full retirement credit for the 15 years (at age 60).

Some risk there obviously, but even with some sort of slowdown (and even mild furloughs) you'd still be ahead money and QOL with that seniority. Furloughs are less likely due to retirements, which march on regardless. Legacies have enough retirement-induced training requirements to stretch their systems to the limits as it is.

Excargodog

Not a tough call at all. You can either be at the front of the hiring wave or the back. That’s the difference five years will make. You will never have a better opportunity than you do right now if airline flying is the ultimate goal. Sure, get a Guard or Reserve slot if feasible, but get your seniority started NOW, not five years from now. Otherwise you will be 3-4 THOUSAND slots lower in seniority your entire airline career. Ask any sixty-four year old Captain how much that would have cost hem.

rickair7777

Right now IMO, No. Five years would put you on the back side of the retirement wave, although with retirements still humming along by historical standards.

Assumes that you finish up in the reserves, so you would still have Tricare, except for the "Grey Area" between reserve retirement and age 60. If you want low-impact, some non-flying reserve jobs are pretty close to one weekend/month, two weeks/year.

But it's risk vs. reward. The totally risk-averse option would be to stay in. Only you know where you fall on the spectrum. Make sure the spouse is educated on this stuff. I've known guys who missed out on a lot because wifey wanted too stay in, solely because she was comfortable in the mil ecosystem and didn't know anything about the real world.

We're in uncharted economic territory, who knows? It's inherently cyclical but the timing is now obviously operating with new variables, so the magnitude is also probably equally unpredictable. Black Swan events are always possible.

A downturn is inevitable... eventually. For all we know that could be in 30 years

But assuming a moderate downturn in the near future, it's likely IMO the big airlines will not furlough due to pending retirements. For airlines with multiple fleet types a single furlough can generate 5-7 training events, which cost money and take all of those pilots off line for months. Combine that with retirement movement off top of the list and the big three would probably need to recall the furloughs before they even finished moving all the pilots around to adjust for the furlough in the first place!

An airline with a single fleet type (ex SWA) would be able to furlough (and recall) more readily since there would not be cascading training events across multiple fleets.


Yes reserves for sure if you get out.

tangowhsky

So, as the guy who started this thread, fast forward 8 months to this unfortunate circumstance. Obviously having been passed over IPZ, I knew the APZ wasn't happening. Sat down yesterday with the boss who informed me of the next the curve ball inbound...he had a paper with my mandatory date of separation for 31 Dec 2019.

Does anybody know if this is normal and everybody twice passed over will get this or might I see/hear something different in a few more days? I was reading that selective continuation takes place at the end of the promotion board and it's possible the two worst case scenarios could happen--"a) continuation is not offered to anyone deferred two times by the promotion board or, b) an individual eligible for continuation is not selected for continuation." So while it looks like this was the case, I have yet to get anything official sent directly to me!

I was really looking forward to preping for the airlines about a year from now...not now, today, when all I've done is browsed over the forums. When it rains it poors eh'. So much to do with so little time, where do I start?

Blackhawk

Sometimes, things happen for a reason. Look at this as an opportunity instead of a speed bump and 5 eats from now you’ll probably be grateful this happened.
Been there, done that. Unfortunately, in my case I appealed a fitness report, was successful, got a back dated promotion with back pay, then spent five more years in the Army before I realized I really did want to be an airline pilot instead of doing PowerPoint presentations.

tangowhsky

Ya, I told the boss I'm not one bit upset about this new fork in the road. Just starting to visualize the process and the million questions to ask are forming!

So, guess I'd better get signed up into airlineapps, get a hold of emerald coast/RST, get better resumes, gather my flying stories, oh man, so much to do asap.

FormerAF

Priorities:
- Get your logbook in order (MilKeep is handy if you don't have things digitized)
- Start working on AirlineApps (DAL & UAL), PilotCredentials (AA & SWA), UPS has their own app and so does FedEx.
- Get a First Class Medical
- Get your FCC permit
- Write your resume
- Work the bro network for letters of recommendation
- Print your apps and review them. Then fix it and do it again.
- Get an app review
- Sign up for Emerald Coast/RST/Cage depending on which airline you're targeting
- Wait for the call
- Mentally prepare yourself to jump to a regional if necessary.
- And start rushing guard/reserve units

OBAP is in a few weeks. I'd get a resume together and go. We can debate the merits/validity of career fairs, but I'm planning on going because I figure it can't hurt.

I'd expect the next Southwest Window in about a month.

That's not all inclusive, but should get you on the right track. Caveat - I haven't gotten hired yet.

rickair7777

WTF??? I thought the AF was done rail-roading passed over majors!?! Every other service pretty much gives automatic continuation so it's your OPTION to stay for 20...

Silver lining is a potential great airline job + reserve retirement. You might even be able to finish the regular retirement in guard/reserve... although you might not even bother once you get accustomed to airline life.

tnkrdrvr

Sorry the active AF is ending your service on such a low note. It sounds like you have a pretty good idea of your way forward, so I will just throw out this word of encouragement from someone else who left as O4. When I returned from my last deployment I had less than a year left until I retired and no ATP. In 4 months I was able to knock out my ATP and a new type (737, and no Southwest wasn’t my primary goal), attend a job fair for my top pick (UPS), pass the Hogan, and get an interview. A month after that I had a class date that was the earliest I could take for terminal. You can definitely make some lemonade out of the AF’s lemons and potentially still get an active duty pension in the Guard or Reserve. Good luck and stay focused on your goal.

ipdanno

As has been mentioned, start looking for an ANG or AFRES unit where you live or want to live. Either in what you are qualified to fly or not. Call the unit Ops Officer/Senior ART(Technician) and introduce yourself, and ask when is a good time to visit.

While you are transitioning, participation in a squadron exposes you to employees of multiple career destinations. That can help a bunch.

And, you very well might find that darn it, they promoted you any way. That improves the eventual retirement check quite a bit.