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Stepping away for 4 years

Old 09-10-2020, 11:35 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by airpaul81 View Post
Hey all, was just looking for advice to see what everyone thought. I am currently projected to be furloughed from my current airline and might have an opportunity to go do a 4 year tour with the military.

Was curious what recruiters at the majors would think if I interview after not flying for 4 years and coming with really low turbine time. Any advice would be grateful!
airpaul81
I have a friend who did something similar during the last recession. It was tough to know back then, too, whether it was a good idea or not. It ended up being great for him, and a few years of ADOS/ADSW points seriously improved his reserve pension. Went back into the SELRES in 2015 and doesn't regret any of it.

This is one of the most unpredictable periods in US history. Some economists think we're just at the very beginning of a profoundly long and deep recession that could be worse than anything anyone alive has ever seen/experienced. With that said, unemployment is going down, the stock market is surprisingly good, the property market is on fire (literally in California right now), and load factors are slowly increasing domestically, so I don't think anyone knows exactly what is coming next. If you have 15 years in, you joined up right before the subprime lending collapse in 2007 and the stock market crash in '08, so this isn't your first rodeo. Assuming you commissioned before 30, you still have time to go do 4 years in the AGR and then come back, do another year or two at a regional, get hired by a legacy, and put in another mainline career that will span two decades. Another 4 years AGR also all but guarantees you'll be at 19 years TIS when your orders end and will be in a sanctuary period and guaranteed 20 years/retirement if you don't promote. They can still sh.t can you right now, and you lose a $2-$4k+/month reserve pension. If you take these orders it's like taking nearly guaranteed retirement orders plus job security during a pandemic. If I were you I'd do this, without delay.
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Old 09-10-2020, 01:06 PM
  #12  
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Just as perspective. The stock market is looking forward, 6 - 18 month. One invests thinking things are going to become less bad, down the road. Always has been, is today, and always will be in the future.

Sales is coincidental with the economy. It is, by definition, the GDP.

Improvements in unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. Always has been. Companies do not hire until they cannot handle the improvement by reducing inventory and working current employees with more overtime. They are hesitant making the commitment to hire and train new employees until they have confidence in sustained need.

Many think unemployment is a leading indicator and the stock market is either a lagging indicator or just fat cats out to screw the little guy. They are mistaken on both accounts. They need to learn economics.
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