1992 or 1993. FE new hire. Major up for Lt. Col? More likely already a Lt. Col. F-16 guy, Agressor back ground, did his Pentagon tour for the CoS of the Air Force? Or the head of TAC??? Maybe TAC. His next assignment is a Sqdr CC. He's hoping for F-16 (F-5??) Agressor CC to Europe. Gets told by the CoS of USAF (more likely the head of TAC)(Creech???) to do a study to show why guys should stay in and go for 20 yrs and get their retirement. Creech (?) thinks the young guys don't understand the value of staying. He does his study....hands it in....and quits. "Even at 17 yrs I realized I was better off leaving. They were stunned that I quit." He was going to do some USAFA liason, CAP, etc, etc, to get his 20 yrs.

Fast forward to 2014 or 2015. I'm helping at job fairs. Guys are having their friends contact me for info/insight. One of the guys is an O-5 up for O-6 in the Pentagon. Briefing the Under Secretary of the AF (a lady....so that might help out what year it was) on the pilot retention issue. He retires. "Yes, ma'am. I'm outta here!" Staying to pin on O-6 wasn't worth it. Getting to the majors sooner was. Got on with Delta and moved back to where his kids could grow up with their cousins and grandparents after being at the whim of mil personnel office for the last 20 years. It's called 'winning.'

Saw some data recently - 8th Air Force - 37% killed, 40% wounded or POW. IDK if that meant 23% completed their 25 missions. How were wounded who recovered back to flying status counted? Does the 40% mean 'wonded and unable to fly afterwards"? Beast me. Regardless, at best, 23% flew and were never injured, killed, or a POW.

... Getting to the majors sooner was. Got on with Delta and moved back to where his kids could grow up with their cousins and grandparents ...

Exactly this. Everyone reaches their line with AD and this was one of the main factors for me as well. They need to realize you're not going to keep most of us for a full AD 20. If anything, they should shorten the commitment back to 8 yrs at least; guys will still be hungry and less jaded. They'll have the airline/contract gig and no doubt keep Guard/Res bummin' so the AD maintains, and the TFI retention and overall force health may improve.

Exactly on point when you can leap forward with a line number as years can equal putting hundreds or thousands behind you depending on the climate especially at the larger outfits. If you have finished a decade no commitment and airlines are hiring is a no brainer. Within 1, 2, maybe 3 years from a full retirement it depends once again on the hiring climate and especially if you can edge those points from outside sources as mentioned before by others. O-6 opportunities were here and there, but I chased the retirement priority and it would have meant another three years on board and that is coming from a former active duty guy putting together AD tours/orders, etc as a Guardsman. Also didn't want/have the time for AWC as the end years were flying the LGD-6D Large Gray Desk w/6 Drawers as a Staff weenie in D.C. along with Homeland Defense down South. Check of the month club does have its benefits no doubt and creates a nice safety margin, but only you can decide if the timing is right and the sacrifices are worth it. Not only does seniority bring more clams, but lifestyle/schedules improves significantly at many places.

Great idea if it was an accession issue. It's not.

There is zero shortage of people who want to be AF pilots. None. There has never been an empty seat on the first day of UPT. Not one.

Unfortunately, the shortage is 10 year experienced guys who actually know what they are doing. Officers in their shoes get out for every reason under the sun--pay, QoL, queep. Give a warrant officer the same fixed wing qualifications as the current officers at the end of their service commitments and they will punch out at the same rate. So unless WOs have some secret source of patriotism that only they know of, this is really a non-starter.

Guys who were in the USAFR units, and perhaps involved with their units recruiting, said that several years ago (late 201x's?) USAFR SUPT slots were going unfilled. That's a mind boggling concept. IDK if that's still true now. I'm guessing, or they stated, that the slots would be returned to the active duty side of the house. They also menitoned I system that I wasn't aware of - you could get a generic USAFR SUPT slot not specifically linked to a particular unit. As you progressed they'd find a unit for you. That's another mind-boggling concept as a reservist.

There's a reason the AF and Navy do it the way they do.

Aviation is THE mission for the USAF. It is the large preponderance of the conventional power projection capability for the Navy. Both services need aviation to be very well-represented in staff and key leadership positions all the way up the chain of command. So they need aviation experienced officers who can punch at the appropriate weight (rank) relative to other branches and services. Especially in the joint and coalition contexts.

In the Army aviation is an enabler mostly for the Army itself. It only needs representation relative to other Army branches, which it has with a relatively small cadre of commissioned officers. Not that Army aviation doesn't need officer representaton, it just doesn't need as much, or in as many places.

The issue isn't compensation, don't need a particular O vs. E pay scale, bonuses can take care of that. Some enlisted SEALs have gotten retention bonuses at least as generous as pilots.

From a recruiting perspective, bright shiny military jets allows the AF and Navy to attract people who they hope will make good senior staff officers and leaders down the road. The want a large inventory of those to start with to account for attrition (airlines are an aggravating factor).

Yeah that's a fact. I've taught more than a few students who did this. They were even in regular ROTC units in college. Couple of them I know ended up at spots like C-5 in Dover.

This has been an issue for over a decade. It’s not a lack of available bodies. It’s AFRC playing I’ve got a secret. Usually the active duty simply rolls some bodies into the classes, so not the tragedy some make it out to be.

That's my recollection. The SUPT slots don't go empty but the USAFR doesn't get the pilots as they're filled with AD SUPT studs. It seems crazy to me that Reserve (USAFR/ANG) SUPT slots are going unfilled. But the airline supply side is crushing the delay most will incurr if they go the USAFR/ANG route.

I've told a couple guys - "get hired young enough and you can join the USAFR/ANG once you've got your seniority number. Back in the mid 1980's we had a guy at AA do that. In UPT the IP's asked "what are you going to do once you go back to your unit?" "Start my training with AA." "You going to apply there? That's your first choice?" "No. I have a job/seniority number there. I'm on MIL leave for training."