chase

Look at this thread for the military Skill Bridge program that can solve your problem

ATTN: Military Skill Bridge Hiring @ Baker

BlueScholar

If you can accurately tell what the aviation industry looks like in 4 years, then you will make a hell of a lot more money investing than flying. That being said take a look around the industry, not only is there a slow down but also a glut of new pilots trying to get in on the last part of the hiring boom. This is my best guess as to what the industry will look like barring WW3, the economy tanking, COVID24 hitting, aliens invading, etc.

- Delta is past the retirement peak now, planning on hiring around 1700 people a year, so in 4 years you'll have around 6800 pilots ahead of you, if you leave the navy ready to be hired. If they're at their 20k goal give or take you're talking about half the company being hired since COVID.

- United is planning on 2,000 a year, so best guess there's 8,000 pilots ahead of you and a similar ~12k hired since COVID out of probably ~20k pilots.

- AA is going to be hiring similar numbers, but that won't be as bad of a seniority percentage hit because their hiring peak is further out than UAL and DAL so you could still get in on the fast movement due to retirement.

- SWA is slowing down because their attrition is going to likely drop with the new contract, and their retirement peak is still going to be a ways off.

- Fed Ex and UPS aren't hiring, but they probably will be in a couple years, although there's probably a good amount of pent up demand for folks that want to jump over there.

- Who knows what will happen at the LCC/ULCC world, but Spirit is loudly proclaiming they are on the brink of bankrupcy. If they go belly up now there's 3,300 pilots looking for a home. Maybe some retire, maybe everyone else increases their hiring to compensate and there's no real change, or maybe it's somewhere in between and now there's 1,500 more apps in the system with plenty of 121 experience.

- By the way you'll also see the airline training academies be fully stood up, cranking out who knows how many new pilots who have jobs at regional feeders reserved for them, plus their flow to the legacies, which I'm guessing would be starting 4 years from now.

- If age 67 hits everyone will have their career plans pushed back around 2 years, so then while everyone else is flying ~1,000 hours a year for a regional and improving their resume your app is being bumped up by what, a dozen aero club cessna hours?

I would guess that if you stop flying for 4 years your app would be below average to be hired at a legacy right now, and your future outlook with all that upcoming competition would be even worse. All this is to say that when you're ready to separate you will have a LOT of competition, and that competition will have a lot more than 1100 hours. You're already behind the power curve on the timing of the the hiring market, and you want to pass up a golden opportunity to be paid to accumulate hours, strengthen your resume, and voluntarily accept several more months of delays by working at a below average company like a regional (if they even exist in 4 years which is no guarantee), ULCC or AMCI, giving up probably another 1,000 seniority numbers in the process and several tens of thousands of dollars in lost earnings while you're at that time building job, knowing the industry could dry up and leave you stranded in which case you're talking about millions of dollars in career earnings. And to top it all off, you want to spend thousands of dollars out of your own pocket to maintain currency and build time in order to facilitate that plan? I don't know anything about you, but that seems like a bad plan to me IF flying for a legacy is your 100% desire. Now there's worse things in life than making a career out of those less heralded airlines, there may even be some benefits to going that route, but realize you're giving up a lot of pay and stability to make that happen.

Airlines have hired thousands of military pilots. They know what typical career progression looks like. Being in a community and not flying for 4 years and not making instructor might raise some eyebrows as to why you weren't able to progress like your peers. Maybe they care, maybe they don't. I would also say that if you have a restricted ATP that will limit your legacy options. I know United does not hire R-ATP holders. Maybe it will change, maybe other companies have different rules, just realize that will close some doors for you in a more competetive hiring environment. Get your hours, upgrade to instructor, and get your apps in to take advantage of the DAL and UAL military programs that can give you a CJO 12+ months before your separation date. Yeah flying in the military can suck sometimes, I've heard the brown shoe flying community can be brutal, I get it. Suck it up, take advantage of the free hours, get to 1500 hours and a full ATP, and maybe use skill bridge to make the last 6 months more bearable. Trust me, the QOL gets a hell of a lot better if you have something lined up on the outside and you can reduce your give a **** and stress levels accordingly, while preserving the "oh **** COVID is back and the airlines aren't hiring for 3 years. I think I will stay in another tour to be able to pay my mortgage" lifeline. Again, nobody has a crystal ball, maybe taking a nonflying gig for 4 years would set you on the best possible path you could ever hope for, but as best as I can tell now, that is a very poor decision if your goal is to fly at a legacy airline.

Hobbit64

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VT (IP rating with IP Hours) then -> Reservist @ VT + Airline gig with furlough protection for pay & Medical benefits.
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