B2
 

I think you'd have to peel the crew out of the plane after that flight.

Actually, nothing unusual for the B-2 guys. They bombed Iraq and Afghanistan and Serbia from the US, for the most part. Heck, they do some of these missions IN THE SIM, in real time.

GF

I'm curious about whether or not China will get involved militarily if the NorKs attack the US/SK. Got to be a tough spot for them.

Also, to what scale would a NK attack have to be before it was sufficient for the US to declare war?

Shelling an uninhabited island in the sea would probably not do it, but thats all I believe the NorKs would have the nuts to do.

They will not get involved militarily, and if they did by some chance it would be on OUR side. They are the last people on earh who want an armed conflict there because they expect (correctly) that they would be inundated with literally millions of refugees from nK flooding across their border. They would then have to care for them...there would be far too much international scrutiny to just let them starve or line them up along trenches and machine gun them.

The only reason the Chinese like the current regime is because they maintain control over their starving masses, and they are better than a re-unified Korea that would probably be a staunch US ally.

Well Nk used a submarine to sink a ROK warship a couple years ago, and our administration apparently talked the ROKs out of going to war then. the only thing that prevented a war then was the fact that it took weeks or months of salvage and forensic work to determine exactly why the ship sank.

Also, technically, if the attack was on the ROKs (vice US forces), the ROKs would be the ones to declare war (almost certainly after consulting with the US) and then we would be treaty-bound to go along with them.

If nK attacks US forces or cities, I don't think the administration could wiggle out of it...whether the retaliation would be limited or full-scale remains to be seen.

Complicated situation. And in all seriousness I have doubts about the rationality of whoever is pulling the strings over there. Most of their posturing is probably intended for internal consumption (put fear in the populace and rally them around the government). But somebody over there may believe that the ultimate decision maker on our side (obama) is weaker than he really is. nK got away with sinking the ship because it was (literally) an under the table kick in the nads, so nobody knew who, what, how right away and we could grind our teeth and keep a straight face.

I doubt the nK leaders want a real war (they may or may not be well enough informed by their military to understand that they would lose). But with all this posturing and chest beating, it would be easy for a low-level nK commander to end up believing his own government's BS and inadvertently start a war. Or the nK government could miscalculate and push us too far...ex. threaten to nuke Honolulu if we don't pull all forces out of the peninsula by a certain date.

China needs Wal-Mart, and Wal-Mart needs China. They will be on our side. You may see NK tone it down to "pacify China" but they will never admit to doing it in response to US pressure. Thats fine, goal accomplished anyway.

Management 101 - make them feel like it was their idea

Satpak77

I wouldn't be so confident on where China stands. Wars are fought over national honor and national political interests, not business interests. China, if NK were at war, might be neutral, might be on NK's side, but they won't be on ours. They have a lot of political capital tied up in the NK regime, it won't be tossed aside lightly unless doing do is in their political interest.

GF

I have always wondered about this aspect; is Kim Jong Un really the leader calling the shots, or is he just a puppet doing this to try and control the hardliner's in the military?

China is much more of a world player - both politically and economically - and they would not jepordize that for the toe jam that is North Korea.

Good question, but I'm pretty sure no one knows the true answer. The military probably does have an idea of their relative strength compared to the US/ROK, that might cool things down. As long as every provocation is meet with the "West" backing down, we risk the time we don't and the power in NK decides their bluff has been called. Do they fight to save their face or lose face. The Koreans, in general, are a strong bastion of "face".

GF

USMCFLYR

On the logic, I completely agree, BUT China has thumbed their nose at the "West" many times and gotten away with it. Witness 1989 Tianaman Squre, the value of the RMB, SEA waters, UNSC vetoes or refusals to sanction Iran and Iraq. They're bulletproof in many ways.

The question is: do they believe the West (US, really) really isolate China, if it stood behind NK? So far, we haven't. Now, nuclear war is another thing. The overall aftermath of 9/11 was pretty harsh in many ways. Nuking a city, US or ROK would be an entirely new level of disaster.

China for the last 20 years has put a figurative gun to the Western economies. Look at the Titan Tire plant in France. New owners comes in, says, "give me this for union contract or it's off to China". The Chinese need to expand and provide for its population has driven many a Western business to the wall.

GF

I stand by my position. In addition, their "one child per family" policy will play into this.

China is not going to war (combat war) with anyone. Will they hack the crap out of a country's computer networks and clone their military technology ? yes. will they put soldiers on the ground and engage combat or drop missiles ?

No.

Will China "take credit" for de-escalating tensions with NK? Sure. And that's fine. Like I said, the result is the same.

Exactly my point. China will still throw its new found weight around - they are a global power no doubt.
WAR between the west and NK is a whole different scale.
I believe that China wants to play on the world stage now. They know that they need to play by the world's rules when talking about something SO drastic. They are *bending* to world standards more and more as time moves on and they see the benefit of being in the good graces of global economics.

I read somewhere recently that China accounts for about 70% of NKs foreign trade business, where as NK barely provides 1% of China's. Economically, I don't see how losing ties with NK would harm China in the least, and the Chinese probably feel the same way.

Agreed. Being a global economic power now, China will not risk losing that status by taking up arms against the ROK/US and its allies.

I do agree with previous statements that China would not want to deal with having an American ally directly on its border, and that the NK refugees would almost certainly go north into China.

The North Korean army is indeed quite massive, but being malnourished, poorly trained, and poorly equipped, they won't last long. They do have a LOT of missiles and a LOT of boots on the ground. Not much for a Navy or Air Force. They would quickly lose control of the air and sea above and around their country.

Food for thought: Wouldn't a unified Korea negate the need for U.S. troops on the peninsula entirely? Regardless, I think it's less about having the U.S. at the doorstep vs. masses of refugees. I doubt the ROK is salivating over reunification either. They see Germany, 20 years on, still struggling with the effects of reunification. Lots of people invested in the status quo.