Some might be waiting to see what the Military Retirement and Compensation commission has to say in a few months. That could initiate the stampede...and subsequent STOP LOSS

 

Thanks for the replies. I think that's my largest concern right now -- looking short vs. far sighted. My scope is on the immediate. It's very daunting when this comfort level has been your life the past 17 years.

I agree with you, get out now is the better of the two options --

Here is what I found on another forum:

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Now that TERA (early retirement for 15-20 year folks) is a possibility, I ran some numbers:

Assumptions:
- 2013 DFAS numbers for Maj and Lt Col pay, BAS, BAH, etc.
- 2013 Airline Pilot Central numbers for Delta airlines using monthly guarantee of 65 hours for 12 monthly pay periods
- A-320 FO for years 1 thru 10 at Delta
- A-320 Capt for year 11 until reaching age 65
- 15% of airline pay 401K contributions from Delta
- No airline per diem added
- I used current days dollars....no attempt at adjusting for inflation, future valuation, etc....todays $ for the entire calculation
- I know there are probably 69 variables I could try to account for, but my goal wasn't to spend every waking hour creating an elaborate excel doc, I just wanted to look at the big picture with regards to $....can't factor in QOL, etc.

Option 1: 17 year Maj at 41.225% of base pay (% determined by TERA formula), Delta schedule stated above
Option 2: 20 year Lt Col at 50% of base pay then Delta schedule stated above

Upon reaching age 65:
Option 1 total earnings: $4,768,179. Winner by $304,524.
Option 2 total earnings: $4,463,654


If by leaving the military at the 17 year point, the extra 3 years of airline seniority allows you to hold Int'l wide body Capt for only your final 3 years at the airline (Option 1) but stay a A-320 Capt for all of Option 2, the new totals are:

Option 1: $4,924,257. Winner by $460,602.
Option 2: $4,463,654

The above numbers only account for reaching age 65 when the airline money stops but the military retirement would continue (I assume....who knows considering what is going on right now), so the higher Lt Col retirement would start playing catch up.

The difference between 17 year Maj retirement and 20 year Lt Col retirement is approx. $1200/ month, so:

In the first scenario (Option 1 winner by $304,542) / $1200 it would take 253 months (a little over 21 years), so break even would occur at age 86.

In the second scenario (Option 1 winner by $460,602) / $1200, it would take 383 months (31.9 years), so age 96.9 is the break even age.

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For my calculations, I'm also looking at the strong possibility of landing a job with my chief pilot cousin who works for a Fortune 500 company here in Texas -- Challenger 300's starting at $120K a year, caps out at about $150. He LOVES his QOL, and that salary is on par with a Legacy FO.

Talked to him last night, viewing the Flt Dept on Thursday with a resume in hand…

 

I'm curious...do you think 11Fs will be included in TERA? I'll bet not. I hated AD so much that I retired the first day I was eligible without a job.

 

The way I read it, if you are ANY AFSC with 19 years as of Aug 1st you are eligible to "apply" for TERA.

 

Curious if this only applies to Active duty, or are Reserves eligible also?

 

This be like VSP was a few years ago: apply, get turned down, then expect the next nonflying 365 to Djibouti.

 

I bought into that logic when I joined the airlines in January 2000.
I was still furloughed as of August 2013... 13+ years later.

Fool me once, shame on you...

 

In my military community (F-4G), there were two big waves of guys who got out.

The first group was in the 1992-1994 timeframe. I wasn't financially or personally ready to make the jump at that time

Of my associates who bailed, two were hired in fairly short order, one after a year wait, and one didn't get hired....and he was by far the the guy with the best qualifications. He did a non-flying gig in the Guard, and later, picked up a mil-flying gig, which eventually led to an airline gig.

The second wave was in the late 90s. I was a 1998 bailout, although in the Reserves the next day.

At a squadron reunion in 2010, it was surprising how similar everyone's experiences were. The early guys had economic hardships early on (and at the time, some of the early guys were still facing some). Those of us in the second wave had the hardships later.

None of us had seen smooth skies for the entire journey. The guys with the happiest histories had all been in the Guard or Reserves during our airline tenures.

While timing is 99.99% of everything, no one knows what the future holds. Having something to fall back on---mil retirement pay, a Guard or Reserve job, or your own business--is often the only way one can justify taking the risk.

 

Oil price spike, war, economic downturn, terror attack -- turns the fancy nitnoid calculations to garbage. I bought into it followed by 9/11 and an airline bankruptcy. Thank God for the Guard and subsequent AD retirement. However, since the discussion involves bailing out at 17 vs 20 it seems to me a person is in a position to assume greater risk given the mil retirement income and cheap health insurance.

 

Drop them now!