This info is a little dated, but it’s what I used trying to determine my career. When the last pilot age info was released, in approximately the next three years roughly 20% of NJ pilots (I believe 2400 pilots were on the list at that point) will be at or above age 65. In the next 7 years it will be roughly 1200. This is the youngest pilot being age 65. We currently have pilots 80 years old on the list. So in the next few years we will have pilots retiring, losing medicals, or simply going beyond the average life expectancy. This also doesn’t take into account any growth, which there seems to be a good bit of at the moment. Given the average pilot age, growth, and getting through the furloughed upgrade list I would think upgrade time should come down significantly and finally get to the “organic” movement they seem to be shooting for.

This job isn’t for everyone and I still question going to the majors. It is working harder for overall less money. I personally measure everything against commuting and does it suck worse, however that’s due to my family situation. Someone else, maybe not. I don’t think there’s a wrong decision as I believe, at least based on today’s situation, either career will be a good one. It’s more what works for you.

Timing is everything in aviation. Unfortunately, we can't really see what is going to mess things up in the future. I was hired thinking I'd upgrade in a couple of years. I was very wrong. At least those who are hired this time around will have a pilot group that has has the vast majority 15+ years older than the last big push. While there is no mandatory retirement age here, pilots have actually been able to save quite a bit while they aged and will be able to afford retirement. I'd guess that well over 1000 will retire or medical out over the next decade. If I were young, I'd still probably go to a major unless I had something in my life that forced me into a hideous commute. At least this time around the likelihood of reasonably fast upgrades is much higher than last even without massive growth.

Some of the older pilots take advantage of NJA's fairly generous Medical Leave. You get 3 years total. The first 6 months are a % of your salary, the remaining 2.5 yrs is capped at $60K/yr. You continue to receive full benefits during the 3 years, including the awesome medical. Also, the Union sponsors a LOM plan via Harvey Watt although benefits are very limited once you hit the upper 60's/early 70's. Most pilots 70+ can come up with a reason to medically retire and coast for 3 years. And in my case I went out at age 60.5 and will be drawing from the LOM plan until age 68.5. So a number of pilots won't even make it to 70 before having to bail.

I got lucky on the hiring lottery. I was hired in March 2005 and made Captain in 2.5 years. With the rapid growth right now I can see upgrade times coming way down, assuming the economy doesn't tank.

And in 2015 lol.

The reality is, the entire industry is unpredictable, but NJA is even more so in terms of upgrades and career progression.

Not really. The wait has been a long time for some pilots to upgrade… but ask TWA, US Air and Pan Am pilots how long they waited to upgrade at some points of their careers through various mergers and downturns.

20 years was nothing for those airlines; waiting as Second Officers…. First Officers.

How long did they keep their upgrade at those airlines before being downgraded back to FO? It happens so often at some airlines that their Union sought to get language in the contact to allow downgraded Captains the ability to wear three stripe epaulets with four stripe jackets.

Unpredictable? What’s unpredictable is how long a pilot has actually stayed a captain at the airlines once finally upgrading. NetJets Captains stay NetJets Captains.

No downgrades. Ever.

What’s predictable is the continued downward spiral 121 continues along as a regressive track since the destabilization of Deregulation.

Captains didn't get downgraded at NJA, but NJA furloughed the highest percentage of pilots out of anyone, including the airlines in 2008. Let's not pretend that NJA is invincible.

Everyone that was hired in 2015 was promised mass growth and a huge reduction of upgrade times. Fast forward to 2022 (just about) and upgrade times are still sitting about thee 10 year mark. The few from my new hire class that stayed, are still looking at anther 2-3 years to upgrade. It is what it is but I absolutely remember hearing the same song and dance about how "now is the time" and "you are in front of the wave" etc etc. Major airlines don't pull that stuff.

You speak about an airline industry that doesn't exist anymore. Will the industry see downgrades and furloughs during rough times? Probably, but a "continued downward spiral" of the airline industry isn't happening, no matter how much the furloughed airline pilots of yesteryear who found themselves at NJA want it to happen. '

NJA is a great place for the right person, but the need to crap on the airline industry to justify NJA is silly.

I don't remember anyone talking about massive growth in 2015. The country was still getting back on its feet from the recession.

During the 2008 downturn what almost killed NJA was owners using their jets as ATM's. They were cashing in their fractional shares to cover stock market losses and NJA was obligated to buy them because of the contract. As contracts were renewed that was fixed after the recovery so it won't happen again. Normally NJA is more recession proof than the airlines are. Thurston and Lovey don't want to give up their private jet.

NJA is a great place for over 2500 pilots.

500 more next year…. Just not you.

Cool story lol.

I was hired in 2015 and left in 2017, couldn't be happier with the move. But I wish NJA the best and I wan't people who want to be at NJA for a career, to get hired.

You weren't a new hire in 2015, you were coming back from furlough. New hire classes were pumped up with lots of talk, and I totally get it, they all believed it and thought it was coming so it wasn't a purposeful lie or anything. It just didn't pan out the way they thought...

Did any new hires bother to reflect on the fact that the company was coming off furlough, had no major airframe orders in, and a very high PIC/SIC ratio when they hired on?

Yet you still feel the need to come back and crap on NJs?! Let it go man, let it go...

Use some of that Captain money to buy a hobby or something.

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We don’t have any 10 year upgrades because it’s not 2025. No one knows yet when the 2015 class will upgrade. NJA still has to get through the 2008 seniority group first. NJA did not hire from Dec 2008-Dec 2014. I don’t count the one person in 2009 since he’s in management.

We won’t know actual upgrade times post furlough because we are not there yet. But they will reduce automatically by 6 years when we get to the 2015 new hires.

You got here in 2015 when we were under a terrible CEO whom turned everyone against each other and was eventually fired. You never stuck it out to see the great company we have evolved to.

You left for greener grass or so you thought, yet keep coming back to this one. You sat at home for a year while the taxpayers paid for your at home staycation, yet still feel the need to come back here. You’ve finally upgraded at a part 121 airline, yet still come back here.

You don’t seem to be happy at the greener grass based on your other posts over there. Will you ever be happy? The grass is only greener where you water it. Find your grass to water. It’s clearly not here.


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Math seems a bit hard for you so I will help. If a 2008 hire hasn't upgraded yet, then you are absolutely right, you don't have 10 ear upgrades. You have 13 year upgrades and climbing. If somebody hired in 2008 waits 13 years to upgrade, then the upgrade took 13 years. You don't get to dismiss the time during furloughs to somehow not count towards current upgrade times. Will those times drop when you get though the gap? Absolutely! But you can only go on the DOH of the junior CA to gauge upgrade times. This is how it is done literally EVERYWHERE else. 2015 hires had no furlough, no gap, nothing. My 2015 classmates are still several hundred pilots away from upgrading. Will they upgrade at the 10 YOS mark? Maybe, probably!

I know any realistic talk of NJA cuts to your core so I apologize for upsetting you. I know you needed the math lesson, do I need to explain how public forums work as well?

Crapping on NJA? By saying I wish them the best? lol. You guys get too emotionally wrapped up the place you work.

Phenoms were coming on board like candy in 2015. And there is still a high PIC/SIC ratio.

Don't try to save face now. Anybody can do a search to see how much you "wish" them the best. What you don't realize is that there are plenty of NJ alumni that don't share your view. But keep coming back, waving your "look at me" flag. That fourth stripe doesn't make a person worthy. Just means their seniority number was next.

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Yes, and many of the crewmembers staffing the fleet were displaced to it as we retired older airframes. The Phenoms were modernizing the fleet and not necessarily for growth. Due diligence on the part of a new hire in learning what is actually happening at a company is crucial to avoiding unrealistic expectations. I'm sure we can look back here on APC to find out if any new hires in the 2015 time frame were actually expecting a 2-3 year upgrade.

The high PIC/SIC ratio is a good thing for the company and pilots. The low pilot/airframe ratio means pairing issues if we had rank ratios like the legacy carriers, and PIC/PIC pairings relieve the need for more bodies.

Getting emotionally wrapped up in one’s company is something called pride. Especially since the pilot group has been instrumental in securing one heck of a CBA and bringing this company to the level it’s at now in the 22 years I’ve been here. Just flew with an FO last tour on the CC72 schedule who is north of $200k/yr in the large cabin. He has no reason nor desire to upgrade into a small cabin at this point even though his seniority would hold an upgrade bid.

Finally, anyone in this industry who believes “promises” made during recruitment/hiring is naive at best. I can think of other descriptions that would fit better though.

We have many FOs in that range now. I am on a small fleet CC72 and average one extended day per month and will close out the year in the 260-270 range. I have talked with a couple road warriors who, based on my calculations, are going to pull in some very serious money this year. But that does take a willingness to live on the road.

The problem is, none of us believe you.