I’m thinking of coming over to PSA and weighing my options now with commutair. My biggest concern is sitting Reserve/hot reserve for months on end and not flying much. What would you forecast for a new guy trying to fly out of DCA? How quick to hold a line? Can you pick up extra flying if able? QOL sounds decent once you have the seniority and can manage your line pretty well. Appreciate all the data!

 

Pick up as much as you want as a reservist on days off, which would start at 125% according to some fancy common core math our company / union is selling.

As for holding a line, our union data nerd is currently saying that a build up line is 9 months from doh for a FO, almost 11 months for a round 1 line, and then you'll have a lot of control when / how much you fly.

 

Depends on if you bid first or last out. As a reserve FO in DC I've flown 18 hours in a month bidding last out (plus picking up a 7 hour trip in open time for 125% pay, for a total of 25 hours) and 35 hours in a month bidding first out. The same month I bid last out, someone in my class blocked 49 hours without picking anything up in open time. YMMV. DC reserves get a lot of simple turns. Not as many trips...but DC is the most called out base.

 

Currently it is 11 months to hold a Round 1 line in DCA, but that can be a little misleading. Similar to saying current flow time is 5 years. The problem is 5 years ago and also 11 months ago we weren’t as over staffed as we are now

The most junior R1 line holder in DCA is a March 12, 2018 hire, hence the 11 month time frame. I’m not sure who that is exactly, so to be conservative I went back and just picked the most junior guy in that class based in DCA. On the last seniority list he was number 1477. When he was hired he was 1731.

So in 11 months he moved up 254 spots on the seniority list.

But now we’re extremely fat on on pilots. If you were to start class today you’d be #1860 on the list. So basically the most junior R1 line holder in DCA currently had 129 spots of a head start on you. For you to get to #1477 you’d have to move up 383 spots on the list (1860-1477). If we take the current rate of 254 spots in 11 months it equals moving up 23 spots a month. The attrition above you slows down as you move up the seniority list but even if the rate were to stay the same...

383 divided by 23 equals 16.6 months to hold a R1 in DCA for someone starting class today at current attrition rates.

Now, we do have some more airplanes coming and attrition will probably increase starting in the summer or fall so that could help things move faster. Like I said though, attrition above you slows down as you move up the seniority list so this could balance out those factors. It could be faster than 16 months but I’d be very surprised if it was faster than 12 months.

 

Hiring, attrition, and system flight hour changes are all highly non-linear. Really hard to predict even with adjustments for now vs then. That said - everything seems to point toward PSA regressing toward the historical regional norm - a year or more on reserve.