Truth somewhere in between. Outside attrition is what really drives time to flow

There is no “in between”. 9 is 50% greater than 6. Flow alone is roughly 53% higher at Piedmont. It’s fourth-grade math.

Regarding outside attrition, both carriers will likely experience roughly the same percentage of outside attrition, so that factor cancels out.

A ten year flow at PDT isn’t realistic, because it doesn’t account for outside attrition. Likewise, a 16-year flow at PSA isn’t realistic, for the same reason.

If half of PSA’s pilots leave outside the flow, that leaves 950/120 per year = 7.92 years for number 1,900 to flow.

If half of PDT’s pilots flow, that leaves 372/72 per year = 5.17 years for number 744 to flow.

That’s nearly three years’ difference. That’s what a 53% higher flow rate (considering pilot group size) does for PDT.

A new hire who chooses PDT over PSA, and who flows, is likely to spend nearly three more years at AA...three more years at $250k-$300k/year. This assumes no change in flow rates from present.

PDT’s flow is presently superior to PSA’s, and has been for a few years. Again, there are a lot of other factors to consider, but an extra $15k-$20k/year during one’s time at the regionals is nothing compared to an extra $250k/year at AA.

Piedmont has the lowest outside attrition of line pilots of the three WO. Also has the Lowest % of apps on file with AA outside the flow. There’s a lot of turnover on the bottom of the list as NHs leave during the 11 month training delays. Only about 45-55% of each class remains in property through their first year flying the line currently. After that, outside flow attrition drops to 1 or 2 (max) pilots leaving outside the flow per month.

The five year flow at Piedmont Does not exist for new hires.

Do not come to Piedmont for a Philly area base unless you can’t get hired on at the following airlines:

Frontier
PSA
Republic

Each of the above will give better pay, scheduling and QOL. A 10 year flow is not worth coming to Piedmont.

I see. So PDT is a horrible place to work, and no one should go there, but no one at PDT wants to leave for better opportunities. It’s crystal clear to me now.

Piedmont is like a jam in traffic. At the front of the line the end is in sight so even though it’s slow moving it’s not too bad. In the middle the line is long and barely moving but there aren’t many options to get out and go another way. Towards the back end folks see how long the line is and how it’s barely moving and take alternate route as soon as they can.

When the flow was introduced PDT had less than 400 pilots and was going to take 5 years for new hires. Every 50-60 people since then has added a year to the flow. For a time Piedmont was supposed to get 175s, then instead 100+ 140/5s, which would have supported growth of he pilot group to increase flow. Those things didn’t materialize and aircraft completed at 60 and management has announced they intend to keep the pilot group its current 740-760 range.

Yes the % of pilots flowed per year is simple arithmetic. The statistic produced isn’t particularly meaningful though.

If 20% of a seniority list leaves every year then the time to flow numbers are 26% vs 29%. If it’s 10% then it’s 16 vs 19. Very much makes a difference in how long hire to flow takes

This is no different than the scenario at PSA, or Envoy.

I suspect you are relatively junior. Perhaps once you get in the top 300 or so on the seniority list, once outside attrition dries up, you’ll understand why a flow rate 50% lower than PDT’s makes a big difference. 20% of the top 300 are not leaving outside of the flow, and once you get within the top 200, there is nearly zero outside attrition. I imagine you believe you’re going to get the call from Delta as soon as you hit 1,000 hours P.I.C. - I sincerely hope you do.

You guys can carry on without further input from me. I’ve made enough effort trying to explain why 9% is 50% more than 6%, and how it matters. It’s not my job to change your personal reality.

Where can I sign up to start top 20% seniority at Piedmont?

"Piedmonster" LOL

There are derogatory names for all of us, I'm sure:
SkyWorst
Brown Streak
Mesa
etc...