Add in that the military is making fewer pilots. IMO the regional airlines will continue to struggle to fill their seats so long as the majors hire at the forecasted rates and the 1500 rule keeps the supply of regional pilots restricted. The surge will draw some more pilots out of the military, but not enough to have 3 pilots applying for 1 vacancy. The rest of the competition (91/135) has always been there. What you are seeing already is the regional airlines looking to non-traditional sources for new pilots like the military helicopter community.

Agreed. Plus, I know plenty of regional guys who are close to retiring. They have to be replaced as well.

youtube.com/watch?v=rHKanuyeawc

Don't forget the thousands that are qualified and just on the sidelines or overseas, flying $$135 and want the schedule and retirement. We could see well over 10k mil pilots over that 10 year span as well. Nobody seems to also account for those just entering and who will enter in coming years. I know several who spent minimal time at airlines who are at majors. Thousands of fresh ATPs get printed at a regional near you, most with quick upgrades in their prospects.

Haven't forgotten about them. Those that are in the "sidelines" are there because they want to be or have to be. A lot of ATPs out there are held by guys who will never re-enter the airline world no matter what happens. They were furloughed one too many times and changed careers. Others for medical or other personal reasons.
The 135 and mil have always been there.

I really think the majors will always be able to fill seats. Now how qualified will they be? I'm guessing it will get to the point they will be hiring CFIs with 1500 hours. Which leaves the question of if those applicants are going straight to the majors, who is going to the regionals. IMO the regionals will be only a fraction of what they are now about 15-20 years from now

Why should we be caring what will unfold in twenty years is beyond me.... We might lose our medicals tomorrow. Just enjoy your time where you are at, and if you end up becoming a B777 captain, good for you.

I hope your financial/career planning includes what might unfold in 20 years. I know mine does.