"All I'm saying is that if a new-hire's ultimate goal is get hired at one particular major airline, (Delta, United, or American), he/she may want to think twice about choosing a regional that offers a flow or SSP because choosing a regional with a flow or SSP may actually DELAY their progression to their preferred major airline. Additionally, choosing a regional airline who has a flow or SSP will likely reduce or delay their chances of being an "off-the-street" hire at 1 of the 3 major airlines. "

This is where I fail to understand your point, how does one working for the WO or company with SSP delay their progression? Are you saying "they'll be too comfortable at their regional airline due to flow/preferential interview?" For people with my seniority at pdt (5-9 years) that's a valid argument because we're so close to moving on to AA, why would we go to one of the LCC just to be still looking for a job at the legacy down the road? But for more junior pilots, they certainly have the choice to move on anywhere they choose to.

Your looking at it wrong. Why would a flow limit your options, it actually increases them. Using your example you could join a WO and make the highest pay your first two years having mainline travel bennies, profit sharing etc and now you can bid Captain and start building PIC time.

You can apply to all the majors at that point and keep building PIC time. It usually takes 5-6 years to build enough time to get hired at the majors. The average time is still 5-7k hours. You could flow at Envoy or PDT in 5-7 years. So why would you want to put yourself through another training event at Frontier and move your family at year two at a regional if you are about to upgrade? You are gambling that an Airbus type is more valuable than PIC time and also delaying 3-5 months of building flight time and risking another training event at a company that doesn't have a great reputation for good training. K4 training isn't easy either.

With all the retirements coming up I would get 1000 TPIC first then try to go direct to your major of choice. If it's American you can wait for the flow. Most guys I know have their apps out to the other big 3. Look at PSA they have more guys going to Delta each month than they are flowing. With the acceleration of retirements this will continue (hiring outside of the flow) and guys will be bailing for the earliest seniority number at a major. There is nothing stopping someone from bailing to frontier And going your route. If that is what you think is best you have that option as well. No one is handcuffed to the flow and lots of guys going to Delta, UA, Fedex, JetBlue or whatever works best for their family and careeer goals.

This goes for all regional pilots not just the WO. Get your time and apply. If you are at a regional with a long upgrade time the LCC could be a good option. In the coming years there are plenty of opportunity for a major airline job. Any 121 time is good just build your time and keep networking.

It's a personal choice! I like my job, management stays off of my as$, and I have no plans to move-on anytime in the near future. I like where I'm based, my kids are in school, my wife has a good job, and I have no apps out. There may come a time when I decide to take the leap, but it'll be on MY time frame, not AA's time frame. Flow likely won't play any part in my decision to move on,..... if and when I decide to move-on.

Ok, you all have convinced me that flow is the only way to go.

Whatever you do, don't go to Trans States, upgrade in 1 year, get your 1000 hours of 121 PIC, move on to Spirit for 2 years and then apply to American with 5500 hours TT after only 4.5 years in the 121.

Go with the FLOW!!! There is no other way!

Average TT Civilian hire at AA is 8000-10000 TT. It would take you another 2-3 years IF they hired you. 75% flows and military leaves very small chance of that happening. Meanwhile your twin who went to PDT or Envoy will be flowing in. If American is your #1 choice a WO is still your best bet, or join the military.

And you wouldn't have 5500 hours in 4.5 years. You forgot indoc and training at both places and CA upgrade training, and reserve time.

What will the average TT civilian be in 4.5 years?

Valid points; to make this easier to read for someone on the outside...

By choosing to go to one of the WOs of AA you are probably decreasing your chances of being hired outside of the flow to AA. It is happening but I think the general consensus is that it is more difficult to get an interview out of the WO when you already have a path to AA, albeit 3 days past forever from your hire date. The follow on statement I would make is that if you are going to flush an opportunity AA isn't a bad one to flush since it is probably the most difficult to get an interview at given the street hire numbers at AA, DAL, and UAL. All of that assumes that you have the stats to back up being hired somewhere well underneath the flow timeline.

That concept was ridiculous to me when I was trying to get hired... difficult to understand that by flying for a feeder that I am decreasing my chances at the supported legacy. Then again if I'm already flying for them at 30% the cost why would they hire me?

Reminded me of an XJet recruiter sitting jumpseat telling me the sign on bonus at the AA WO's was no big deal because of the income taxes deducted.

My bud at TSA was just shy of 4K TT at 4.5. Also he says TSA no longer has a 1 year upgrade.

Delta is starting to get smart and hire from AA wholly-owneds. So I would argue that flow + the opportunity to get picked off by another major is a pretty sweet deal.