Several people who I know would, these are age 64 1/2 people. And honestly they seem fine, none of the FO's complain about them.

 

Until you become that turkey! It's kinda like the guys who were against the age 60 rule changing until they got there themselves.

 

There's going to be several each year at Trans States. It's nowhere near the attrition that we are getting of people moving on to majors and LCCs, and all signs are pointing to that increasing.

But lord help us if age 67 happens. We know how that will go. A few will medical out, a few will just be ready, but a majority (at least at the majors) will be there for two more years. All the regional pilots need is more stagnation at the majors

 

Any idea on some kind of time frame for 67? Year or two maybe?

 

As soon as the American people and Congress give enough $h*ts to do something about it.... and what's the quickest bandaid fix??? Age 67. (Closely followed by repeal of the 1500 hour rule )

When cold this happen? Six months? 6 years? I'd place money on this happening before the major's retirements go into full swing.

 

That's because your young is my guess. Your ideas will change with age. Some of use enjoy flying as much as golf or fishing.

 

I think a little longer, perhaps five years.

The FAA will almost certainly not make a change with safety ramifications unilaterally, they'll have to be told by congress (if age 65 is law, as opposed to just a reg, then only congress can change it anyway which I think is the case).

But once the pressure's on, age 67 will be a LOT more politically palatable than going up against the colgan families to roll back the ATP law. Better to let the older guys fly a little longer, than let inexperienced young punks get their OJT with 70 pax in the back.

 

I don't think legacy carriers will have a shortage. And an extra two years really won't do anything. Only a small percentage of guys would work past 65 anyway. Regionals will have to continue to add pay and benefits to attract pilots in the next 5 yrs.

1500 hour rule is viewed as a safety thing and was made after Colgan so good luck getting that reversed. 1500 rule has helped to increase pay, it's a good thing.

 

I'm not saying there's a shortage at the majors, or that there will ever be a true shortage. However, 50% of legacy flights are on regionals, and the shortage is definitely hitting there. The majority of the flying public doesn't really understand what it means to be flying American Eagle vs AA, or United Express vs United. When flights start to really cancel due to lack of crew and routes from small- medium airports go away, that's when the American public and media will push Congress to do something. Age 67 is an easy, but very temporary fix. There would be enough geezers staying at the legacies, that between military hires and the lull in retirements, the majors would not have hire very many regional pilots. It would give them two years where regional pilots would be stuck in place, thus protecting their feed for a while.