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-   -   Good article (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/104277-good-article.html)

tom11011 07-20-2017 09:31 AM

Good article
 
Airline pilots reveals the truths and myths behind the pilot shortage - Business Insider

This guy sums up the truth of the situation fairly well.

wmichflyer 07-20-2017 05:39 PM

He doesn't address the second year pay cut.

skypine27 07-20-2017 06:03 PM

This may be exaggerated (i made it out of the commuters 15 years ago) but....

My friends who ended up stuck there (Lost Decade guys with "too much" captain time) are telling me that UAL and DAL are snatching up young 3 year FOs left and right, instead of pulling guys from the top end of the seniority list.

Again, they may be exaggerating, but pulling from regional FOs instead of captains isn't going to help the commuter shortage either

TransWorld 07-20-2017 07:10 PM


Originally Posted by skypine27 (Post 2397706)
My friends who ended up stuck there (Lost Decade guys with "too much" captain time) are telling me that UAL and DAL are snatching up young 3 year FOs left and right, instead of pulling guys from the top end of the seniority list.

I don't know how much is that case vs. others (Lifers, someone who has a black mark in their history, etc.)

I do know what has been here on Envoy's subforum. They are no interview flows to American. A couple of years ago they were flowing 20-25 years of seniority with Envoy. This summer it is down to 12 years (because very few were hired in the lost decade). In 2 years, based on contractual flow rates (and nothing catastrophic happens in the world), they will be down to 7 years of seniority to flow. It will hold steady, more or less, on out.

Without access to the seniority list, it is hard to tell how many were bypassed, voluntarily or involuntarily. My perception is there are not that many that were involuntarily. If anyone has current data, it would be interesting to share it.

Duesenflieger 07-21-2017 04:05 AM


Originally Posted by skypine27 (Post 2397706)
This may be exaggerated (i made it out of the commuters 15 years ago) but....

My friends who ended up stuck there (Lost Decade guys with "too much" captain time) are telling me that UAL and DAL are snatching up young 3 year FOs left and right, instead of pulling guys from the top end of the seniority list.

Again, they may be exaggerating, but pulling from regional FOs instead of captains isn't going to help the commuter shortage either

There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot. New and old captains are being hired at the majors. Most of the old timers complaining don't update their apps or do any of the expected stuff that mainline HR wants to see like volunteering.

4V14T0R 07-21-2017 05:41 AM


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot. New and old captains are being hired at the majors. Most of the old timers complaining don't update their apps or do any of the expected stuff that mainline HR wants to see like volunteering.



+1 here. Those guys never tell the full story or don't realize the real reason why they aren't being picked up.


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sweetholyjesus 07-21-2017 05:51 AM


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot.

Good for the blacks and women. I just better not see any transgenders or mexicans TERKING ER JERBS!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_kC_bP28iQ


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
New and old captains are being hired at the majors. Most of the old timers complaining don't update their apps or do any of the expected stuff that mainline HR wants to see like volunteering.

True. I've heard so many captains complain about not getting hired, but those same guys refuse to volunteer or make themselves stand out because "they shouldn't have to". NOBODY has to volunteer, but that's kind of the point :rolleyes:

PermaFo 07-21-2017 08:37 AM


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot.

Like it or not... it IS happening. What sets them apart is anyone's guess, but ive seen it personally half a dozen times in the last 2 years.

Quarryman 07-21-2017 08:06 PM


Originally Posted by sweetholyjesus (Post 2397846)
Good for the blacks and women. I just better not see any transgenders or mexicans TERKING ER JERBS!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_kC_bP28iQ


True. I've heard so many captains complain about not getting hired, but those same guys refuse to volunteer or make themselves stand out because "they shouldn't have to". NOBODY has to volunteer, but that's kind of the point :rolleyes:

Because dumping soup into a bowl at a soup kitchen really has something to do with your ability to effectively be a safe pilot and a good leader. :rolleyes: But hey, have the right anatomy and/or color and you're good to go. This old mantra of "paying your dues" went out the window when the rules of the game were selectively applied. You just didn't get hired at <insert major/legacy airline here> because you failed to wear the correct color tie given the day of the week you interviewed. Yes, that might be hyperbole but you get the point.

They're complaining because they're flying mainline routes with equipment in mainline livery for regional wages. That's garbage. You betcha they have every right to complain. They were just paying their dues....until the dues simply didn't matter anymore.

Paid2fly 07-22-2017 01:12 AM


Originally Posted by Quarryman (Post 2398205)
Because dumping soup into a bowl at a soup kitchen really has something to do with your ability to effectively be a safe pilot and a good leader. :rolleyes: But hey, have the right anatomy and/or color and you're good to go. This old mantra of "paying your dues" went out the window when the rules of the game were selectively applied. You just didn't get hired at <insert major/legacy airline here> because you failed to wear the correct color tie given the day of the week you interviewed. Yes, that might be hyperbole but you get the point.

They're complaining because they're flying mainline routes with equipment in mainline livery for regional wages. That's garbage. You betcha they have every right to complain. They were just paying their dues....until the dues simply didn't matter anymore.





Ding, ding, ding... Exactly!

CBreezy 07-22-2017 04:14 AM


Originally Posted by Quarryman (Post 2398205)
Because dumping soup into a bowl at a soup kitchen really has something to do with your ability to effectively be a safe pilot and a good leader. :rolleyes: But hey, have the right anatomy and/or color and you're good to go. This old mantra of "paying your dues" went out the window when the rules of the game were selectively applied. You just didn't get hired at <insert major/legacy airline here> because you failed to wear the correct color tie given the day of the week you interviewed. Yes, that might be hyperbole but you get the point.

They're complaining because they're flying mainline routes with equipment in mainline livery for regional wages. That's garbage. You betcha they have every right to complain. They were just paying their dues....until the dues simply didn't matter anymore.

Many majors want more than just some guy who is going to sit up front and push buttons. Whether you like it or not, an airline pilot is, at least in part, a customer service job. Major airlines want someone who is going to go out of their way to engage the customer base and community. They can tell if you can fly a jet by looking at your PRIA documents and experience. This job isn't about how good your stick skills are. If you can get through a few years of recurrent and an upgrade, you more than likely have the requisite skills to fly at a major. None of that shows them how well you'll promote the brand even if you aren't being paid for it.

MiLa 07-22-2017 04:56 AM

I was a regional FO hired at a legacy 2 years ago (I'm not a woman or minority). I did safety work at my regional and years of volunteer (most of it in college.) It does happen, but from what I've observed most of the FOs hired are doing something a little extra than flying the line. Not saying that's right or wrong, it's just what I've observed... that said, the vast majority of people getting hired are captains. My class had 2 FOs out of 24 and I would guess that's probably the norm.... So yes FOs are being hired, but I would hardly say they are being snatched up in droves over captains...

PSA help 07-22-2017 05:03 AM

Since when are JetBlue and Southwest "legacy" carriers?

I

Quarryman 07-22-2017 07:57 AM


Originally Posted by PSA help (Post 2398275)
Since when are JetBlue and Southwest "legacy" carriers?

I

Southwest is seen by some as a "fourth legacy."

itsmytime 07-22-2017 08:36 AM


Originally Posted by PSA help (Post 2398275)
Since when are JetBlue and Southwest "legacy" carriers?

I

When were either of them mentioned in this thread?

tom11011 07-22-2017 09:08 AM


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot.

Pretty much any white male can now check the boxes on their Delta-American-United application that says they are a black female without question. I'm not making a joke out of this, stay with me. I'm being serious.

First, get an ancestry DNA test. Chances are high that you have a trace elements of African ancestry.

http://i66.tinypic.com/3022o37.png

According to the legal principle of "The One-Drop Rule", you may now legally check the proper box on your job application. Under race, the option will be "Black or African American".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-drop_rule

If you live in a liberal state such as California or New York, you can be a female if you are feeling like a female on a particular day. For example, at the University of California, their application has six choices for gender identity depending on how you feel about your identity or your situation at the time of application. Applicants can choose male, female, trans male/trans man, trans female/trans woman, gender queer/gender non-conforming and “different identity” to describe their gender identity.

Bottom line, many people can feel completely comfortable today choosing black female on their job application where it might have been judged inappropriate just a few short years ago. For an employer to look you in the eye and say "you are not black" would be racist. For them to say "you are not a woman" would be sexist.

Good luck!

JetDoc 07-22-2017 09:47 AM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 2398264)
Many majors want more than just some guy who is going to sit up front and push buttons. Whether you like it or not, an airline pilot is, at least in part, a customer service job. Major airlines want someone who is going to go out of their way to engage the customer base and community. They can tell if you can fly a jet by looking at your PRIA documents and experience. This job isn't about how good your stick skills are. If you can get through a few years of recurrent and an upgrade, you more than likely have the requisite skills to fly at a major. None of that shows them how well you'll promote the brand even if you aren't being paid for it.

We already are representing the brand, a lot of us represent multiple brands at our respective regional carrier. Your post has no validity.

John Carr 07-22-2017 10:06 AM

Just going broad/big picture here.........


Originally Posted by skypine27 (Post 2397706)
This may be exaggerated (i made it out of the commuters 15 years ago) but....

My friends who ended up stuck there (Lost Decade guys with "too much" captain time) are telling me that UAL and DAL are snatching up young 3 year FOs left and right, instead of pulling guys from the top end of the seniority list.

Again, they may be exaggerating, but pulling from regional FOs instead of captains isn't going to help the commuter shortage either

It's an exaggeration, on a couple levels;

1) It's not "too much" captain time. It's that they're seen as "career stagnant" if they have nothing other than lots of PIC time. All it does it make them very very "average" in the applicant pool. More on this in a bit, keep reading.

2) Young FO's are not getting "snatched up left and right". Simply that compared to 2007-2008 and pre 9/11, it's just more than ever. Again, keep reading. The bulk/majority of new hires at (insert legacy here) STILL have PIC at a minimum. But pilots without it are more common, or less uncommon then before.

All the little pie charts and graphs put out by (insert company's union here) show this. Both in age, and experience level.


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
There is no way that young FOs are being snatched up unless they are female, black or prior military pilot. New and old captains are being hired at the majors.

Sort of correct. I flew with plenty of IMD FO's that were hired as well as OMD that were hired.


Originally Posted by Duesenflieger (Post 2397820)
of the old timers complaining don't update their apps or do any of the expected stuff that mainline HR wants to see like volunteering.

Mostly correct. I know plenty of the people you're talking about. I ALSO know many that DO those things, have been to multiple job fairs, and have had their apps reviewed by (insert reputable company here) to be told "great, you should be getting an invite soon!!!". Only to hear crickets......


Originally Posted by PermaFo (Post 2397944)
Like it or not... it IS happening. What sets them apart is anyone's guess, but ive seen it personally half a dozen times in the last 2 years.

Again, correct. But as far as the bold, there's usually common themes.


Originally Posted by Quarryman (Post 2398205)
This old mantra of "paying your dues" went out the window when the rules of the game were selectively applied. You just didn't get hired at <insert major/legacy airline here> because you failed to wear the correct color tie given the day of the week you interviewed. Yes, that might be hyperbole but you get the point.

You betcha they have every right to complain. They were just paying their dues....until the dues simply didn't matter anymore.

Or rather, in the era they came up in, they were simply doing what was seen as competitive and desired by the legacies. Now, the goal post has shifted some what. I WAS, get PIC time, as much PIC time as you can, in as many aircraft types as you can.

Now, the crappy part is this; After sucking up the dark decade and being 10+ years down the road, a little thing called "life" happens to many.

IOW, got married, had kids, bought a house, what have you. Do you blame them? I was there for the full dark decade. Are people supposed to put their life on hold and NOT do things to progress in life and, ya know, be an adult? All the while having NO CLUE when it will turn around and the hiring will resume?

Point I'm getting at is, for those guys doing all the extra stuff BESIDES the PIC sometimes just isn't going to happen. They've been furloughed, displaced, multiple base closures, whatever. Now they're commuting to their 3rd-4th-5th base at min days off with a crappy schedule. Their "volunteer work/community service" is being home and playing the part of father/husband on their precious time off in many cases.


Originally Posted by MiLa (Post 2398273)
I was a regional FO hired at a legacy 2 years ago (I'm not a woman or minority). I did safety work at my regional and years of volunteer (most of it in college.) It does happen, but from what I've observed most of the FOs hired are doing something a little extra than flying the line. Not saying that's right or wrong, it's just what I've observed... that said, the vast majority of people getting hired are captains. My class had 2 FOs out of 24 and I would guess that's probably the norm.... So yes FOs are being hired, but I would hardly say they are being snatched up in droves over captains...

^^^^^Case in point/game set match/mic drop.

I can't tell you how many FO's I flew with that were complaining about other FO's getting hired and not understanding why they can't. I'd ask them, "you volunteer/job fair/have any other jobs like CRM-safety-ground school-union positions?"

They're answer; "no, I don't have the time/money to do that stuff"

Cool, not many people do, but that's what it takes, like it or not.

Sadly, those of us that have been around long to watch all this really really hoped that by now, the regionals would be imploding and in full on crisis mode at this point. As much as guys like to think it's there, IT'S NOT. Flights still go, they still attract (enough) pilots. There aren't en masse cancellations, what have you. The world keeps spinning........

But it's still a long long ways to the point that pilots with no PIC and just a basic resume and nothing extra get a "cold call" from a legacy, sorry, that's just the way it is.


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 2398264)
Many majors want more than just some guy who is going to sit up front and push buttons. Whether you like it or not, an airline pilot is, at least in part, a customer service job. Major airlines want someone who is going to go out of their way to engage the customer base and community. They can tell if you can fly a jet by looking at your PRIA documents and experience.

You'd think. But sadly, we ALL KNOW those that have crappy training records, discipline files, and even things on their record and get through. That's cool, good for them!!!! But for right here, and RIGHT NOW, there's STILL a crap ton of very good people with clean records NOT getting the invites.

CBreezy 07-22-2017 11:13 AM


Originally Posted by JetDoc (Post 2398395)
We already are representing the brand, a lot of us represent multiple brands at our respective regional carrier. Your post has no validity.

You aren't necessarily representing a brand. You are flying an airplane. The regionals get lots of low marks in customer satisfaction metrics. There are plenty of people who hide in the cockpit do the absolute minimum every day. When everyone has similar qualifications, they are going to want the person who goes above and beyond even in their off time. That's what corporate America loves. Just better deal with it. That's the world we live in.

N6279P 07-22-2017 11:24 AM


Originally Posted by PSA help (Post 2398275)
Since when are JetBlue and Southwest "legacy" carriers?

I

Southwest has always been a legacy carrier, it was around prior to deregulation.

Flying Ninja 07-27-2017 12:02 PM


Originally Posted by Quarryman (Post 2398205)
Because dumping soup into a bowl at a soup kitchen really has something to do with your ability to effectively be a safe pilot and a good leader. :rolleyes: But hey, have the right anatomy and/or color and you're good to go. This old mantra of "paying your dues" went out the window when the rules of the game were selectively applied. You just didn't get hired at <insert major/legacy airline here> because you failed to wear the correct color tie given the day of the week you interviewed. Yes, that might be hyperbole but you get the point.

They're complaining because they're flying mainline routes with equipment in mainline livery for regional wages. That's garbage. You betcha they have every right to complain. They were just paying their dues....until the dues simply didn't matter anymore.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

Flying Ninja 07-27-2017 12:07 PM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 2398440)
You aren't necessarily representing a brand. You are flying an airplane. The regionals get lots of low marks in customer satisfaction metrics. There are plenty of people who hide in the cockpit do the absolute minimum every day. When everyone has similar qualifications, they are going to want the person who goes above and beyond even in their off time. That's what corporate America loves. Just better deal with it. That's the world we live in.

The corporate America I work for could care less about your volunteerism. They only care that you produce for them. And they're happy to pay sick 6-figure salaries.

The airline's standards for hire has always been psychotic with no real basis in reality. If they need pilots, standards drop. If they don't, standards skyrocket. It works on supply and demand. When they feel the squeeze, as they are now, they hire anyone with certificates and a pulse. There are pilots I know at regional airlines who have no business flying a C152 far less a jet...but they're there...doing that job.

CBreezy 07-27-2017 05:51 PM


Originally Posted by Flying Ninja (Post 2400363)
The corporate America I work for could care less about your volunteerism. They only care that you produce for them. And they're happy to pay sick 6-figure salaries.

The airline's standards for hire has always been psychotic with no real basis in reality. If they need pilots, standards drop. If they don't, standards skyrocket. It works on supply and demand. When they feel the squeeze, as they are now, they hire anyone with certificates and a pulse. There are pilots I know at regional airlines who have no business flying a C152 far less a jet...but they're there...doing that job.

Except a pilot's job is, in very large part, a customer service job whether we like it or not.


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