Flow to Amer Airlines What the WOs Vs Reality
 

The WOs seemingly present an attractive option , you progress to AA but can also throw your hat in the ring for an "off street" slot at AA before you flow. & in the meantime compete for a place at other Majors Delta, SW , Fedex etc

Envoy say on their website today you will flow in five years , whereas posters say the datal hiring of Envoy flow is 12 years ie: a 2005 hire

Clearly a large discrepancy , if the 2005 is true , really what can be said about Envoys claims ?

What are the actual flow dates for hires at PSA & Piedmont.

It would be useful for people to have accurate information at their fingertips

PSA is sending late 2007s. But should be up to 2012/3 by this time next year. As we hired nearly nobody for a while.

Envoy's union is projecting a 9-year flow for newhires.

A buddy of mine is off OE now at Envoy. It’s going to be 8-9 years for him as a 2017 hire.

They already put some cap on it. He said now at Envoy, going forward, AA classes will be 25% OR 25 pilots whichever is greater.

At the moment it seems that the flow is a lot more than it is. This is because they are still taking the 824 guys, a group of guys after that and then finally my buddies Newhire group of pilots hired the last 1-2 years.

When all the protected groups are done flowing it’s going to be capped, basically, at 25 guys a month. Not a hell of a lot if you ask me.

So does psa now have a better flow than envoy? looks like the formula for anyone hired now at envoy is lessor of: 25% of all newhire AA slots or some complicated base number of 5 plus 1 extra pilot for every 125 pilots above 480?? This is off this site. according to some back of napkin math that's 2300(number of current envoy pilots per apc)-480=1820. then 1820/125=14.56 to AA. call it 15 even though envoy would probably round down. so 15 plus the 5 base number is 20/month to AA from envoy.

psa will now be 10 a month to AA. 1360 pilots would take 136 months or just over 11 years not counting outside attrition. Although I did see that they are going to be sending 2014 hires in either 2018 or 2019.

I think piedmont is 5/month which would have been good if they had stayed at around 350 pilots but they've almost doubled in size and im not sure if their flow increased to compensate.

Either way with around 40 pilots a month already spoken for at AA and with their upcoming retirements, any of the AA wholly owneds seem like a pick for some who couldn't get into mainline otherwise or want to hedge their pick while applying everywhere else so they at least aren't stuck at the regionals.

A couple things...

PSA has over 1600 pilots on the list now. Also, the 10 flows a month is a temporary amount until a real number is negotiated later this year (presumably quite a bit higher). It is written into the new LOA, so it can't go down, but it should go up.

I don't know what the outside attrition is at the other WO, but the outside attrition at PSA is really high. Something about our "culture" where people want to leave and get to a legacy ASAP. We are sending more to other airlines than we are flowing to AA.

We are also sending a handful each year to AA outside of the flow, but mostly Chief Pilots and military.

Piedmont apparently had 651 pilots on the seniority list as of 1 Jan. Flow increases to 6/month @ 725.

You have a couple of correct points, but the majority of this post is incorrect and mixed up. Currently, we flow 50% of AA's new hire classes per month. BUT...Envoy management can reduce that to 25 per month for "operational necessity". Which they are doing and will continue to do. We will flow at that rate, the minimum 25/month unless something crazy happens, until the completion of the Protected Pilot Group. The last Protected Pilot will flow in 2020 at the current rate. The 824 group you speak of has been done for quite some time now. After the Protected Pilot Group, the rate drops to 35% of AA classes per month, but metered to 15/month by Envoy management. After that group has flowed, then it goes to the lesser of 25% of the entire year's worth of AA new hires or a formula that boils down to 15ish per month based on the pilot group size.

Flow is currently at 12 years. It will continue decreasing as we flow the guys who got stuck here in the post 9/11 world. It will keep decreasing over the next few years and there indeed will be a small group of pilots that will actually see a 5 year flow. The guys that got hired in 2016 are the ones that will see a 5 year flow and head over in 2021. After the flow bottoms out at 5 years, it will reverse course and start to rise again since we are hiring more every single month than we flow. Since we started hiring huge classes in 2016, every single new hire class in 2016 begin to add time to the flow for the next class. So from where we bottomed out at with a 5 year flow projection for some of the 2016 hires, we've ballooned all the way back up to a 9 year flow projection for a new hire today. Those projections are based on flowing the contractually allowed minimum amount per month. We've been hiring classes of 70, 80, even 100+ per month. Any excess of pilots hired above 25 per month in turn increases the flow time. But bottom line, the flow carrot for anyone hired from here on out is virtually worthless.

Unfortunately, at Envoy OAL attrition is at a trickle.

The good part about flow is that every pilot on property moves up "X" number every month. Even if you are 10 years from flow, you still benefit from it every single month that another group flows.

PSA will flow about 100 this year (depending on how many classes AA has). These are the most senior pilots. Many are LCA's. Some are other instructors, or hold management positions. They will all flow and people will have the opportunity to move up and replace them.

The flow benefits everyone - not just those that are moving over to AA.