Most threads here tend to involve some sort of predictions, either for an individual company or the industry itself. Thought I would be redundant and start one just for any who wish to share their views as to what some of the changes will be in the coming years.

This is meant to be for FUN, not for anyone to take seriously and get wrought up about. (particularly since the future will unfold as it will, regardless of any predictions I or anyone else makes!)

I will present a couple of my scenarios, influenced greatly by my past observations, books read, and world view.
I will try to keep my more dystopian prognostications to myself.

 

Its been observed that the current business model of Regional Airlines is having trouble finding enough qualified pilots. ( I am told mechanics and avionics personnel as well)
The majors at this point, and for some years to come, have no shortage due largely to higher pay. I hear often that "they will just bring it to mainline".I don't forsee that as the regional aircraft are too small to spread the much higher employee costs over their few seats. Remember, it's not just pilots, but everybody. Mechanics, flt Attds, Dispatchers, HR, etc. Not to mention B funds etc. etc.

So, how to address the problem?

Bigger airplanes flying multiple stop routes. A city that can fill a 50 seater can be connected with another, or two, to fill a 110 seater, or a 150 seater.
Example: Ewr-Alb-Roc-Ord.
Ewr-Syr-Buf-Sbn-Ord
Or a loop....Ewr-Alb-Syr-Ewr

This same little exercise can be done with most hub and spoke systems. (it was pretty much how the airline system was set up prior to post deregulation. Regionals such as North Central or Ozark making multiple stops between hubs. The only difference was they hauled connecting pax for all airlines, not just what we now call code share or express type flying)
The "trunks" did it as well as the former regionals. My first airline domicile was in Fnt where we tried to skim a few pax who would fly a puddle jumper (Metroliner) nonstop to Ord rather than fly a UAL 727 Fnt-Lan-Ord.

This also addresses another problem indirectly. Congestion. Each smaller city having it's own nonstop creates massive delays at many hubs. There is also a finite number of gates. If the "Legacies" merely transfer smaller aircraft to their certificate, and continue to fly them with the same scheduling practices, all it will do is move the delayed flights from a codeshare airline to itself. There would be an obvious plummet in their OT performance numbers. The only way that I see to reduce the delays at a hub is to reduce the departures and arrivals. Combining cities on one flight could help in that area.

Anyway, some of my thoughts as to one direction things could go.

 

Jeff Bezos digs some change out of his couch cushions to buy both Frontier and Spirit, and renames them "Prime Air People".

 

Do I get free seats with my Prime membership?

 

Unmanned aircraft take over flying the public around and pilots are deemed obsolete, thus ending the pilot shortage.

 

No. You’ll get free two day delivery to your front door. Of course you may want to brace for impact when the contract delivery driver tosses your ass towards your front door.

 

1. Regional consolidation. Which ones survive? Got me. Mergers? Acquisitions? Out of business? Again, got me. When I started this business ACA was the place to be at the regional level and I thought they would be around a long time. Now they're gone. Just a few years ago I predicted Air Wisconsin would be gone along with Republic and GoJet. I was spot on.
2. LCC consolidation. I don't see SWA acquiring anyone, but see my predictions above. Maybe SunCountry? Heck, their airplanes even look alike. Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant and JetBlue all fly the same airframes (except for JetBlue's 190's and Allegiant MD's). Hmmm....

 

they can't make that happen fast enough for this pilot shortage. Maybe in time for one that comes when all the kids hired now retire in 40 years. But probably not even then. The government can't make it happen that fast.

 

So far the self-driving cars are still having problems. It'll be at least a generation after those are ironed out for the public to accept flying in aircraft without a pilot. Single pilot ops with emergency remote override MIGHT be more acceptable.

 

It will take all day to fly from EWR-ORD vs 1:50 non-stop on competition? not gonna happen.
That’s what WN used to do, they don’t do it anymore.