Which Regionals will survive a recession?
 

I'm about to start interviewing with the regionals. I'm figuring that there will be a recession in the next one to two years. If there is a recession are any of the regionals in a better (or worse) position to survive it?
Better contracts with the Majors, better financial stability, better management, own their own planes, those kind of things.

SkyWest.

Place has its detractors (including myself). But they managed to survive for 35+ years. If asked to bet, I’d put my money on them.

Most likely survival candidates are AA Wholly Owned regionals, Endeavor, Republic mainline and SkyWest mainline.

Compass-- hands down... jk
We cant even handle good times

This would be my exact list as well.

Those will probably be the only regionals in 5 years.

Depends on how much they want to pull the stops out. If you started an ab initio program where you pay nothing I think there would be lines around the block multiple times. The cost of training someone is nothing compared to what they save in decades of salary difference from mainline to regional.

These will be the only ones left in 2 or 3 years ,it won’t take five.And where can I apply for republic and Skywest MAINLINE ???

I would think at some point the 3 AA WO will be consolidated under one company (American Eagle?). The other three I am in agreement. I would add Horizon. Whether any are mainline, I have my doubts.

Consolidation from 20 ‘major’ regionals to 5. Only a few remaining specialty sweet shops, such as in Alaska and servicing EAS.

Instead of 20,000 pilots, about 10,000 pilots flying regionals. Most of the 50 seats parked (only places remaining are where it is nearly impossible to fill a couple of 76 seats in a day).

A lot of 76 seat flying replaced by mainlines flying 100+ seats. That does not mean reduction of pilots, rather moving a substantial chunk of regional pilot slots to mainline slots.

I've heard the thought that the three AA WO would be consolidated. I just don't think so. AA did that years ago to where they merged several airlines into the previous American Eagle. Then, after the bankruptcy, they diversified again. They need to keep them separate for whipsaw.